Can the target of 1 yuan per wattage for lithium batteries be achieved by 2020?

Demand for cobalt has increased sharply in recent years, driven by downstream new energy vehicles and ternary power batteries, and cobalt has soared in early 2017. In view of the scarcity of cobalt resources, the industry has always been full of crisis in the development of lithium ion batteries.

Can the target of 1 yuan per wattage for lithium batteries be achieved by 2020?

National control of cobalt resources Cobalt

In the battery industry, the Congo's reputation comes mainly from its possession of cobalt, which is distributed in the Democratic Republic of the Congo for two thirds of the world's cobalt reserves. In order to gain more benefits and find a sense of existence, Congo, which possesses cobalt, has become more frequent in recent years and has strengthened its control over cobalt in many ways.

Albert Yuma, chairman of Gecamines, a state-owned mining company, said recently that the country had not benefited from the rise in copper and cobalt prices and that the Democratic Republic of the Congo would seek greater control of the global cobalt market through direct cooperation with car and battery manufacturers.

"When people talk about cobalt and emerging electric cars, the focus is on traders and consumer markets. Congo and Gecamines are ignored," complaints AlbertYuma. "The market seems to think that the future of cobalt is in the hands of middle traders. Not the Democratic Republic of the Congo. "

It is understood that Gecamines has held discussions with a large Chinese battery manufacturer on the establishment of a joint venture in state-owned cobalt mining and plans to renegotiate a partnership with an international mining company.

However, this is not the first time that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has strengthened its control over cobalt. By the end of 2017, the Democratic Republic of the Congo had begun to amend its mining law, which might allow the Government to define cobalt as a strategic metal, thereby increasing the tax rate on royalties for the export of cobalt from 2 to 5 per cent, At the same time, the basic metal rights gold tax rate was raised from 2 % to 3.5 %.

It is understood that the Democratic Republic of the Congo has also introduced a profit windfall tax, while the Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo has increased its share of dry shares from New mining projects from 5 per cent to 10 per cent, and the duration of contracts has been shortened from 10 to 5 years. The bill has been transferred to the Senate and, once passed, will be signed into law by the President.

Can the target of 1000 yuan / kilowatt-hour of lithium battery be achieved by 2020?

According to industry research institutions, the current rate of entitlement tax on cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is 2 per cent, and the tax base for taxation is 85 per cent of sales income. Therefore, if the entitlement tax rate is increased from 2 per cent to 5 per cent, for enterprises, Cobalt's gross profit margin will drop by 2.55 %.

The Congo is at the core of the global cobalt supply, and changes in its tax system and increases in the cost of taxation will make the cost curve of enterprises in the cobalt industry shift upwards. Field research missions to the Democratic Republic of the Congo by industry research institutions have produced a breakdown of the fees paid for mineral development in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including dry stocks withdrawn from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, income tax on mining enterprises, tax on concessions, etc.. The Government of the Democratic Republic of the Congo receives 60 per cent of the profits.

China accounts for only 1 % of the global reserves of cobalt resources, and 5 % of the global capacity of cobalt ore. Cobalt materials are heavily dependent on imports and rely on more than 90 %. Due to the tight supply of cobalt raw materials, the cost pressure of industry battery materials companies will be transmitted downstream through price increases. By December 25, 2017, cobalt had set a record high since 2001.

At present and in the next few years, cost reduction is one of the main goals that the new energy vehicle power battery industry must face and achieve. In 2020, China, the United States and Europe set cost targets of Rmb1000 / kilowatt-hour, $100 / kilowatt-hour and 100 / kilowatt-hour respectively. Three-way battery is an important technology route of lithium battery, cobalt is also an indispensable material of three-way battery. Therefore, in the current development of new energy vehicles, the supply of cobalt is affecting the nerves of downstream companies.

Professor Ouyangming believes that our country's target cost of 1,000 yuan/kilowatt-hour is high, and the target of 100 yuan/kilowatt-hour is better.

Then, can the goal of 1000 yuan/kWh of lithium battery be realized in 2020? If the battery technology route can't get rid of the ternary material, the proportion of cobalt in the ternary material can't be further reduced, and the result is very hanging.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.