What is the development direction of new energy vehicle?

He Wei, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a researcher at the Institute of Theoretical Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that since he could not make results on hybrid cars, he would rather turn to the development of pure electric vehicle technology.

If the price of batteries is higher than the price of oil or internal combustion engines, then pure electric vehicles will lose their market competitiveness.

Ten years ago, I wrote a special article on hydrogen fuel cells. I talked about many of its problems, such as transportation and safety. Fortunately, the country does not encourage the development of hydrogen fuel cell cars. But the new controversy has shifted to whether to develop hybrid or pure electric vehicles.

In my opinion, the conclusion is clear: the direction of development of new energy vehicles is pure electric vehicles.

Internal combustion engine technology has long been a weakness in China, and foreign companies regard basic research as different from life, and no domestic companies have even done detailed basic research work. Until now, China still can not independently design diesel locomotive. Since our country can not compete with foreign countries in the internal combustion engine technology, or even compare, then in the development of hybrid cars, our country is likely not to do any constructive results.

In the face of such existing reality, we might as well turn to pure electric vehicle technology development. In this area, countries 'technologies are almost at the same starting point. If, from now on, our country can devote its major forces to electric vehicles, it can move forward with other countries. Even if our base is a little bit less, there's still time to catch up. In addition, in the degree of mechanization, because the existing technology is not yet mature, it is still in the stage of testing the market. All countries will not easily implement large-scale mechanization, which instead highlights the advantages of cheap labor in China, which is conducive to reducing costs and improving competitiveness.

In addition, another practical problem that has constrained the development of hybrid cars is the price of oil. The current high oil price directly leads to the high cost of hybrid cars. Lost the price advantage and did not completely solve the problem of pollution, it can be said that the hybrid car basically lost market competitiveness, and it is impossible to form industrialization.

The development of new energy vehicles, pure electric vehicles is the way out, and to make pure electric vehicles, we must use batteries as the power center to design. At present, the technology of battery in our country is not mature enough and the service life is not long. A car can be used for 10 to 15 years, up to a maximum of 30 years. According to 300 electric charges a year, it will charge 3,000 times in 10 years, which means that a pure electric car will charge about 10,000 times before it is scrapped. The life of lithium manganate is only about 1,500 times. The life span of lithium iron phosphate, which is commonly used in China, is only 3,000 times.

When life is short, the price problem will become apparent. If the price of batteries is higher than the price of oil or internal combustion engines, electric cars will lose their market competitiveness. Fortunately, there is now a pleasant situation. A battery with lithium manganate as the positive pole and lithium titanate as the negative pole is highly concerned and is favored by people. The battery charges 30,000 times. However, the technology is not yet fully market-oriented and is only in the experimental stage. Therefore, I think that the new energy vehicle, as a strategic emerging industry in China, its commanding height is this type of lithium ion battery that can be charged and discharged 30,000 times.

Another type of battery is called a lithium empty battery. Its energy density is 20 times that of a lithium ion battery, and it is higher than the energy density of gasoline. The whole world is working on this technology, but the cost is still very high, so I don't think it is worth promoting the lithium-empty car at the moment.

Different technologies exist in the field of electric vehicles, which can form a competitive relationship, which is beneficial to the optimization of the market. Electric vehicles as an industry can not be done in two or three years. It may take ten or fifteen years, so we need a long-term development strategy. On this issue, I believe that the main body to be promoted should be the state, not the enterprises and their representatives.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.