Why China, Japan and South Korea Lithium Technology belong to the leading camp

The rise of battery enterprises has laid a certain technical foundation for the Chinese electric vehicle revolution, but the electric car industry needs further technical attack and timely industrialization to really catch up with the day

The development of Chinese electric vehicles is about to enter its tenth year. As the electric vehicle heart's power battery, its industrial pattern has appeared ice fire two days.

In 2017, Shenzhen Power Battery Co., Ltd., which has the fifth largest global power battery sales volume and the third largest Chinese power battery sales volume, had its parent company, Woterma(300116. SZ), defaulted on 2 billion yuan in debt at the beginning of April, with an overall debt of 22.138 billion yuan. In addition, many small and medium-sized power battery companies have closed down under cost pressure. On the other hand, Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd.(hereinafter referred to as CATL), which sold the world's largest power battery in 2017, successfully met in early April and was valued at more than 130 billion yuan.

In addition to the internal shuffling situation, in the global market, Japan and South Korea enterprises in a competitive pattern, the competitiveness of China's new energy vehicles? Is there any chance of a corner overtaking? Recently, the academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and executive vice chairman of the 100-person electric car association of China, Ouyang Minggao, was interviewed by the reporter of Caijing, saying that the bottom line of Chinese electric vehicle technology has been formed. The lithium iron phosphate battery can be retired, and there is also a new generation of lithium ion power batteries.

The Attack and Defense of Chinese Power Battery

Caijing: What is power battery development in China?

Ouyang Minggao: Eleventh Five-Year Key Development of Lithium Iron Phosphate Lithium Ion Battery, Twelve Five Key Development of ternary Positive Lithium Ion Battery, 13th Five-Year is focusing on the development of high-nickel ternary positive + silicon-carbon negative lithium-ion battery.

Caijing: Is the study of lithium iron phosphate batteries mature in China? Compared with lithium iron phosphate, what are the advantages and disadvantages of lithium ternary batteries?

Ouyang Minggao: lithium-iron phosphate batteries are the bottom line of the electric car revolution. Although the specific capacity is lower than the triple-lithium battery, the lithium iron phosphate battery technology is mature, rich in materials, controllable in cost, and high in safety. At present, advanced lithium iron phosphate batteries have achieved 500 kilometers of mileage in Tengshi electric cars, taking into account safety and economy.

lithium iron phosphate and ternary are different positive materials for lithium batteries. Lithium triplet batteries achieve higher specific energy, but there are still problems such as safety, raw material cost, and service life. The technical threshold is to encourage technological progress, and the safety requirements for lithium-ion batteries are also higher.

"Caijing": Ternary lithium battery is now considered to be a mainstream power battery route. Many companies have turned to more energy density and more complex technology of ternary power battery production. What is the current technology status of China's ternary lithium battery? What's the difficulty?

Ouyang Minggao: At present, the battery sample in development can reach 300 watt/kg of energy. It is a ternary NCM811 + Silicon carbon negative lithium ion battery, but the safety is particularly challenging. By 2020, the combination of 811 positive poles, Silicon negative poles, and liquid electrolytes may become a mainstream product(some Japanese and Korean battery experts believe that 622 positive poles may be a better choice from the perspective of comprehensive performance balance).

The goal of industrializing three-way soft pack batteries to reach 300 watt/kg by 2020 is not a problem. The core lies in whether the raw materials and production processes can meet the demand once the large-scale production of industrialization is implemented. After the industrialization of lithium-ion batteries, it is limited by positive polar materials. From an industrial point of view, it will be very difficult to achieve 350 watt/kg than energy.

Caijing: Is high nickelization a development trend?

Ouyang Minggao: high nickelization is currently a trend, mainly to reduce the dependence on cobalt, so that the cost can be controlled. The decline in cobalt use is an inevitable trend.

Caijing: will China follow the path of Japan's Panasonic development? For example, develop a cylindrical 18650 811 lithium battery.

Ouyang Minggao: Matsushita's 18650 is easier to achieve because of its small capacity. Small batteries can avoid the problem of material heterogeneity and polarization after volume amplification. However, because the electrolyte is easy to dry, the service life is relatively short. But China will not blindly follow Panasonic's research path and choose materials differently. Our country is nickel cobalt manganese, Panasonic is nickel cobalt aluminum. The safety of nickel cobalt aluminum is not controlled and manganese is relatively stable.

Caijing: will lithium-ion batteries be the main route in the medium term?

Ouyang Minggao: Lithium-ion batteries will always be the main product in the medium term and will not be easily subverted. However, changes may occur in positive, negative, and electrolyte. In addition, lithium air, lithium sulfur, etc. are full of uncertainty, and the prospect of industrialization in the automotive field remains to be seen.

The Advantages and Disadvantages of Lithium Technology in China

"Caijing": At present, the global lithium power, China, Japan and the ROK have the right to speak, how to form such a situation?

Ouyang Minggao: mainly because China, Japan and South Korea have the industrial base of lithium-ion batteries, Japan and South Korea, needless to say, China's industrial base began with mobile phone batteries. When lithium-ion technology emerged, most car companies around the world were studying fuel cells and were not optimistic about the future of power cells. The country has also begun to focus on fuel cells, but because there is no fuel cell-related industrial base, the basic materials and membrane electrodes are far from the United States and Japan. Later, after repeatedly comparing the advantages of domestic industries and the characteristics of the transportation system, the "pure electric drive" strategy with the characteristics of lithium electric power first was proposed. It was finally in the same camp as Japan and South Korea, and it was in the forefront of the world in the industrialization of new energy electric vehicles.

Europe and the United States are difficult to appear large-scale lithium enterprises, mainly because of the late start, the weak industrial base.

Caijing: Why is China's industrial superiority and transportation system conducive to the development of lithium electricity?

Ouyang Minggao: Toyota has been developing hybrid power on the basis of fuel engines. At that time, in the first two five-year plans for new energy vehicles in China, it also tracked Toyota's focus on hybrid power as a development, and domestic key car companies invested a lot of energy in mixed research and development. By 2008, the demonstration performance of domestic hybrid cars, especially hybrid cars, is not ideal.

At the same time, the lithium-ion battery technology made breakthroughs after 2007, replacing nickel-metal hydride batteries in a short period of time, making it possible to develop pure electric power. From mixing to fuel cells, Toyota aims to raise the technical bar and ensure competitive advantage.

The Chinese transportation system has an electric basis. High-speed rail, electric bicycles, and electric public transportation have made Chinese society form the characteristics of electric travel. At the same time, pure electric vehicle integration technology is relatively difficult, so China is suitable for pure electricity. The technology breakthrough and the application scene match, which is the main reason for the rapid development of pure electricity.

Caijing: What is the level of lithium-electric talent reserve and research in the world?

Ouyang Minggao: I have read about 1 million international papers on material research in the world over the past 10 years, 40 in mainland China and Taiwan, and twice as many in mainland China as in the United States. A considerable portion of material research is related to batteries. Most of the batteries studied in the United States are also Chinese. Our country's lithium electric reserve talents and research potential is huge.

Caijing: is the high-end capacity of lithium-ion in China insufficient?

Ouyang Minggao: High-end production capacity is a common problem facing all industries in China. However, the high proportion of high-end talents in the Chinese battery industry and active technological innovation. For example, in the era of Ningde, the annual output value was 20 billion yuan and there were more than 100 doctors. Compared with some domestic car companies, the annual output value of 500 billion is only 50. Such a high talent structure and proportion is completely different from other industries.

"Caijing": At present, the consistency of the domestic lithium electricity industry is relatively low. Will industry standards be issued?

Ouyang Minggao: China's lithium battery standard has strict safety standards and clear targets. The recently adopted international standard for lithium batteries has adopted the Chinese standard. The safety and energy ratio of lithium batteries are contradictory. With the development of technology and technology, lithium-ion battery enterprises will raise the technical threshold by increasing the specific energy index. The specific energy is an important and effective Baton for regulating the changes in the production capacity structure. The low-end production capacity in the market will definitely be eliminated.

Caijing: The Ningde era won the global order of Volkswagen and Mercedes-Benz, and it was 6% higher than LG. Why do these foreign car companies originally intended to purchase Chinese power batteries at a higher price?

Ouyang Minggao: First of all, the quality of products in the Ningde era is comparable to LG, and sometimes even better than LG; Second, there are no large lithium manufacturers in Europe; Third, China is the largest single market for these companies, accounting for 40 % of Volkswagen's global sales; Finally, the integrity of China's lithium industry chain is better than that of South Korea, and its industrial scale and development potential are also higher than that of South Korea.

The next generation of batteries who can break the ice

Caijing: at present, the most popular ternary positive material is lithium-rich manganese base. Why has it become a hot spot? What are the advantages and disadvantages?

Ouyang Minggao: Lithium-rich manganese as a positive material is a global research hotspot. Lithium-rich positive electrode material has a high discharge specific capacity and can reach 400 mAh/g or more. The battery specific energy can reach 400 watts/kg or more. At the same time, dependence on cobalt and nickel can be reduced and costs reduced, especially for cobalt. Recently, Professor Xiadingguo of Peking University synthesized 400 mAh/g positive poles in the laboratory, but the life of lithium-rich manganese batteries is relatively short.

At present, 300 watts/kg of lithium-rich manganese lithium batteries have been made at home and abroad, but their life span is several hundred times, and they can not meet the requirements for vehicle use. They need to continue their efforts. Lithium-rich manganese base has fast voltage attenuation and needs to be improved on the material. Second, lithium-rich manganese groups need to be matched with electrolytes with a wider voltage range, such as solid States.

Caijing: is there a timetable for the industrialization of lithium-rich manganese?

Ouyang Minggao: In the National special project, by 2020, we must achieve the industrialization of 811 ternary lithium batteries. At the same time, Lithium-rich manganese base continues to study in depth, because the relevant projects have not yet been completed, and it is currently impossible to reach an accurate time point for industrialization and strive for around 2025.

The comprehensive comparison of lithium-rich lithium-ion batteries that are expected to be high should be equivalent to 811, even better, and the specific energy should be higher than 811. Durability is a key factor for comparison. If the durability can be successfully improved, the lithium-rich material will become a new industrial material for lithium batteries.

Caijing: big car companies listed solid and all-solid batteries as the next step in research and development. What are the difficulties in research and development?

Ouyang Minggao: Although the study of solid electrolytes is already a hot spot, the core of implementing all-solid batteries is to solve the interface problem between solids and solids. At present, liquid electrolytes still need to be added. In the next 5 to 10 years, the proportion of liquid electrolytes will gradually decrease, showing a trend from partial solid to semi-solid and developing into all-solid States. Even if it is not possible to achieve full solid state, it will be close to full solid state.

Once the all-solid state is successfully developed, it will not only have higher safety, but will also completely change the battery practice. Because the solid state solves the short circuit problem of the liquid battery, the battery can be connected internally in series to increase the specific energy. At present, the specific energy should be increased as much as possible under the premise of guaranteeing durability, and the solid-state battery also has the potential for rapid charging. Many related research institutions and enterprises in China are studying solid lithium battery technology.

Caijing: What is the status and planning of Japanese research in solid state batteries and other fields?

Ouyang Minggao: Japanese Toyota has demonstrated solid lithium-ion batteries, and they claim to industrialize by 2022 or 2023. However, it has not been upgraded above energy, so it will not be too high after industrialization.

Can fuel cells replace lithium batteries?

Caijing: from pure electricity to fuel cells, what are the main problems with the development of such batteries?

Ouyang Minggao: China's fuel cell research has made great progress. Fuel cell vehicles have begun to industrialize in the local market. The performance of the fuel cell system is optimized, and the technology will probably be relatively mature in 2025. If large-scale production is achieved, the cost will also decrease.

At present, more attention should be paid to hydrogen energy technology, that is, the front end of hydrogen fuel, such as the preparation, transportation, storage, compression and other links. At present, everyone is only concerned about the fuel cell system itself. However, hydrogen-related technologies and infrastructure are not ideal. For example, the vehicle hydrogen storage technology has the following problems: high cost of carbon fiber, low weight of hydrogen storage, and large energy loss. Therefore, the key is to deepen basic research and technology development related to hydrogen energy, and related infrastructure construction.

Caijing: there has been no reduction in fuel cell subsidies. Do policymakers think fuel cell development is more realistic?

Ouyang Minggao: from the point of view of the country's entire energy system(not just from the vehicle point of view), hydrogen fuel cell technology does need to be accelerated. This is in line with the needs of our energy revolution. If the energy requirements are met to a certain extent, the lithium battery can not be satisfied.

But I also disagree that hydrogen is the "ultimate energy source" and hydrogen fuel cell car is the "ultimate environmental protection vehicle." Both hydrogen and electricity are energy carriers and there is no "ultimate" theory. Small cars require less energy, and lithium-ion batteries may play a bigger role. Therefore, in the case of new energy vehicles, electricity and pure electricity will co-exist in the future.

Caijing: where is the future cost balance between fuel cells and pure electricity for passenger vehicles?

Ouyang Minggao: There are studies that suggest that by 2025, 350 kilometers may be the balance between choosing a fuel-cell car and a battery-electric car for cars above average. The mileage exceeds 350 kilometers and the fuel cell cost is better; Within 350 kilometers, lithium batteries have a stronger advantage.

Now our developed high-speed rail network can fully meet people's long-distance travel, so there are not many extensions of ultra-long mileage electric vehicles. In the future, hydrogen energy can be developed to a certain extent. Fuel cells can be used as extensions for lithium ion batteries, increasing mileage through electric and electronic mixing, and reducing battery usage.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.