Brief analysis of global power battery market demand and storage battery shipments

In 2013-2016, the global sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 19.7, 26.5, 43.0, and 738,000, respectively. The penetration rate has reached 0.8%, and the penetration from 0 to 1% has been completed. It is currently in the rapid growth period of 1%-10%. Car companies at home and abroad have launched new energy vehicle strategies, increased investment in electric platforms and research and development of new electric vehicles. New models are about to be launched intensively, and it is expected to accelerate the production of new energy vehicles. It is estimated that global sales will exceed 4 million in 2020. At present, China's A00/A0 class new energy passenger car production accounted for more than 60%, which is the main body of heavy volume. In the case of subsidized retreat, in order to close the high subsidy standard, it is bound to upgrade the vehicle structure and gradually upgrade to the A level. The power consumption of bicycles is expected to increase. Under two-way pull, the demand for power batteries will soar.

Global sales of new energy passenger vehicles (10,000 units) and penetration forecast

Demand for power batteries will increase rapidly in the future due to the dual-wheel drive of downstream new energy vehicles and increased vehicle power. (1) Global market: We expect the demand for power batteries in 2018, 2020 and 2025 to be 88GWh, 205GWh and 583GWh respectively, of which CAGR is about 33% from 2018 to 2020. It is estimated that the market size will exceed 120 billion in 2018, and will increase to 215.3 billion in 2020. The CAGR is about 21% in three years. (2) Domestic market: We expect the demand for power batteries in 2018, 2020 and 2025 to be 47GWh, 97GWh and 270GWh respectively, of which CAGR is about 27% from 2018 to 2020. It is estimated that the size of the Chinese market will exceed 66 billion in 2018 and grow to 101.9 billion in 2020.

Global power battery market size forecast (100 million yuan)

With the increase in vehicle life requirements, the demand for high energy density ternary batteries has increased significantly. It is estimated that the number of new energy vehicles equipped with ternary batteries will reach 1.8 million in 2020, accounting for more than 90% of the total number of new energy vehicles. We estimate that in 2018, domestic new energy vehicles are expected to exceed the demand of 28GWh for ternary batteries, corresponding to the market size of over 39 billion. By 2020, the demand for ternary power batteries will increase to 76GWh, corresponding to a market size of over 80 billion, a CAGR of approximately 39% for 2018-2020, and a CAGR of approximately 27% for 2018-2020.

Global power battery market demand forecast

At present, due to cost, technology, policy and other reasons, the energy storage battery market is still in the introduction stage. In 2017, global energy storage lithium battery shipments were 10.4GWh, an increase of 38% year-on-year. Among them, China's energy storage lithium battery shipments were 3.45GWh, a year-on-year increase of 34%, and the growth was rapid. Benefiting from the upgrade of the communications field and energy Internet applications, the market size will increase. It is estimated that by 2022, the energy storage output value is expected to reach 13.7 billion yuan, a 2.5-fold increase compared with 2017. As technology matures and costs gradually decline, the energy storage market is expected to become another growth point for driving lithium battery consumption.

Global storage battery Shipment Statistics (Unit: GWh)

China's energy storage battery shipment statistics (unit: GWh)

China's lithium storage energy production output forecast (unit: 100 million yuan)

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