Analysis of lithium battery and new energy vehicle market

Think carefully, there are many similarities in the lithium battery industry and the LED industry. For example, in the early stage of the country's strong support, the market prospects are optimistic; the technical threshold is low, the production equipment is easy to purchase; the investment density is not high, and the return period is short. Of course, there are fewer features such as large subsidies and strong policy dependence.

According to incomplete statistics, from 2010 to 2014, Sanan Optoelectronics received various government subsidies of more than 3 billion yuan. While making peers look, it also pushed Sanan Optoelectronics to the throne of the largest chip supplier in China. However, compared with the subsidy quota of tens of billions of dollars in the lithium battery industry, the subsidies obtained by Sanan Optoelectronics can only be said to be small and sorrowful.

However, is the state subsidy really so good? The advantage of Sanan Optoelectronics with government subsidized equipment is considered to be the chief culprit in the oversupply of LED capacity, driving the industry to enter the shuffle in advance, and nearly 4,000 companies have disappeared. In today's lithium battery industry, many companies are also facing the danger of disappearing because of subsidies. The reason is that good government subsidies are not in place.

Is it really good to analyze the national subsidies for lithium batteries and new energy vehicles?

Subsidized powdered performance

Looking at the development of domestic new energy vehicles, it has the characteristics of an obvious “policy city”. Every time the subsidy policy of the national and local governments turns, it will have a profound impact on the relevant power battery companies and new energy vehicles. The insiders feel that the sales of traditional fuel vehicles in various places are mainly focused on market development and sales. The most important energy of new energy vehicle sales is to deal with local entry thresholds and local subsidy applications. The strategies developed are different.

“Every policy shift is directly related to how much subsidies a company can receive. Therefore, research policy direction has become an important basis for the formulation of new energy vehicle production and sales plans. From the previous performance reports of listed companies, if you go to the government Subsidies, many companies' brilliant performance will turn flat, and even enter a state of loss." An industry insider said.

The above statement is not unreasonable. In 2015, the revenue and net profit of many listed bus companies increased significantly. In the annual report, all companies attributed the surge in profits to policies to support new energy vehicles, and thus received corresponding government subsidies. However, it is slightly exaggerated that some new energy vehicle companies have received subsidies for new energy vehicles that have exceeded their 2015 net profit by dozens of times.

Xiamen Jinlong Automobile Group disclosed in its 2015 annual report that its total passenger car sales in 2015 was 86,900, and its net profit was 535 million yuan, up 115.31% year-on-year. Among them, the new energy bus sales of 18,400, so the government subsidies of 5.8 billion yuan, is more than 10 times its net profit.

Similarly, Yutong Bus is the leading company in the Chinese bus market. In 2015, its total sales volume was 67,000 units and its net profit was 3.535 billion yuan. The Yutong Bus Annual Report shows that in 2015, its new energy bus sales reached 20,400 units, up 176% year-on-year, and the relevant subsidies reached 6.857 billion yuan, and the subsidies exceeded the net profit by 3.3 billion yuan. In addition, Zhongtong Auto's subsidy is three times its profit.

Aside from these large car companies, the data of small and medium-sized car companies is even more exaggerated. Yaxing Bus achieved a profit of 2020 million yuan in 2015, of which the total subsidy for new energy vehicles was 459 million yuan, about 22 times the annual net profit. The net profit of Ankai Bus in 2015 was 40.24 million yuan, of which the new energy vehicle subsidy fund was 1.284 billion yuan, and the subsidy was almost 34 times of the net profit.

“Subsidy standards are too high, and there are no other technical standards, leaving the company with the opportunity to take advantage of it.” Wang Binggang, head of the expert group for electric vehicle major project supervision of the Ministry of Science and Technology, once said. Academician Yang Yusheng of the Chinese Academy of Sciences also mentioned that relying on subsidies to develop new energy vehicles is itself a poison. Excessive subsidy standards will inevitably lead to frequent chaos in the electric vehicle industry.

New energy car companies are too dependent on policy subsidies

Excessive reliance on subsidies has become a difficult label for domestic new energy vehicles. The emergence of the "cheat" incident has also become a turning point in the entire industry. After the end of the “investigation and deception”, the state and local governments not only raised the subsidy threshold, but also proposed a phased policy of “subsidy subsidies”. The process is more cumbersome and more cautious in subsidy application and issuance.

The subsidy "haunting" has just begun?

Compared with the above-mentioned car companies whose subsidy funds have been safely dropped, some car companies are not so lucky. Recently, some automakers broke the news that “2016 has already passed halfway. However, the subsidies in 2015 have not been stipulated so far, which has brought huge financial pressure on the company. What is more serious is that some domestic auto companies have even begun to have funds. The tendency of chain breaks."

The break of the capital chain is a prelude to bankruptcy in any industry. In the LED industry, which is more familiar to the author, in the cause of bankruptcy, the capital chain breaks most of the time. Why is there a break in the capital chain? This is mainly due to the difficulty in recycling the goods, or because the project acceptance time is too long, resulting in excessive time for payment.

Nowadays, some new energy vehicle companies are also faced with subsidy review and long-term subsidy, which leads to the inability to subsidize in time and the inability to withdraw funds in the short term. Because according to the process, subsidies are generally “advanced” by car companies, that is, new energy car companies often sell cars to consumers after deducting subsidized prices, and then apply for subsidies from the state and local governments.

Generally, the process of applying for subsidy is to submit a pre-dumping application for subsidy funds to the finance and science and technology departments at the end of each quarter, and the local finance and science and technology departments will report to the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology. After the four ministries have reviewed the organization, according to the annual cycle, the subsidy funds will be liquidated according to the verification results. If there is a problem with the material submitted by the company, it will be postponed to the next year.

In general, the subsidies for the previous year will be fully settled in the first quarter of the second year. However, since the beginning of this year, the “clearing and defrauding” incident has caused the subsidy application and review work to be stopped in 2015, and the time for the review and issuance of relevant subsidies for car companies has been extended for at least half a year. Therefore, when the subsidies for 2015 can be issued, it is still unknown.

Because the production cost of new energy vehicles is high and the unit price is high, even if it is an ordinary car company, the funds for “paying” in the early stage of selling cars are nearly 100 million yuan. If you encounter a company with more than 10,000 new sales of new energy vehicles, the amount of “advanced” funds may reach several billion yuan. For new energy vehicles with relatively single profit, the result is likely to be fatal. .

Without funds, enterprises will face the dilemma of “no rice to cook”. Some enterprises expect to use mortgage loans to obtain working capital. However, due to the adverse effects caused by the “cheat incident”, banks have become very cautious and worried. The tightening of monetary policy has become inevitable. In the process of mortgage loans, enterprises not only review It has become troublesome, and banks are not willing to lend money to car companies.

State subsidies with relatively simple application procedures are still the case, and local subsidies have become a major problem for car companies. Because of the regional differences in local subsidies, there are too many differences in the amount of subsidies, the way of accounting, and the time of review and issuance. Moreover, in the case of finance, each place is different. There are more local subsidies.

If it causes of the "cheat" behavior of individual car companies, it is justifiable that the subsidy is not timely. However, as the threshold for subsidies for new energy vehicles increases and various reference standards are gradually established, it is too complicated and cumbersome to follow the current subsidy application process. The delay in subsidy funds will put great pressure on new energy auto companies, thus damaging their enthusiasm. .

So is there a more convenient and fast way to apply for subsidies? Perhaps the subsidy application policy currently implemented in some cities can be worth learning from. For example, in Dalian, the purchaser directly applies for the quarterly declaration and disbursement. At the end of the quarter, the car purchaser submitted the subsidy application materials to the Dalian Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration Project Leading Group Office. After the review, the Municipal Finance Bureau approved the payment. The application materials and procedures for applying for subsidies are simpler and more efficient than car companies.

However, the subsidies for new energy vehicles will be withdrawn in 2020. According to the current situation, new energy auto companies are too dependent on the government's subsidies. If the words are not in line, the capital chain will be broken and development will be unsustainable. At that time, if the subsidy completely withdraws from the new energy vehicle stage, it is also unknown whether the relevant new energy vehicle enterprises have successfully weaned.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.