Individuals purchasing new energy vehicle subsidies will be completely cancelled by 2020

After a four-month policy transition period, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy will be implemented from the 12th. New energy vehicles with long cruising range will enjoy higher subsidies, while new energy vehicles with a range of 150 kilometers or less will be subsidized. The direction of the new subsidy policy is very clear, that is, leading automakers to accelerate the pace of upgrading products, while promoting the development of China's new energy auto industry.

Previously, the relevant departments have made it clear that the subsidy for individuals to purchase new energy vehicles will be completely abolished by 2020. Will the models that are no longer supported by the subsidy policy in the future increase prices or fade out of the market? How will the new subsidy policy lead the industry to transition to the post-subsidy era?

In February of this year, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments jointly issued the "Notice on Adjusting and Improving the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles" and proposed a new scheme for subsidies for new energy vehicles. The Notice also established a four-month policy transition period until yesterday.

The new subsidy program has a detailed range of cruising range: the subsidies for pure electric vehicles lasting 150-300 km are reduced by about 20%-50% respectively, and the models below 150 km are no longer subsidized; the cruising range is 300. -400 km and more than 400 km models, the subsidies are raised by 2%-14%.

According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in May this year, sales of new energy passenger vehicles increased by 114.5% year-on-year; new energy commercial vehicles increased by 192.7% year-on-year. Xu Haidong, assistant secretary-general of the China Automobile Association, said that during the transition period of the policy, the sales volume of commercial vehicles was greatly affected by the subsidy policy.

Under the influence of automakers' pricing and sales strategies, the impact of new energy passenger vehicles will be relatively small.

It is understood that the pressure of digesting subsidies will generally adopt three methods: one is to appropriately increase the sales price; the other is to tap their own potential; the third is to require battery companies to cut prices. Qiu Junjun, editor-in-chief of electric vehicle observers, explained that in general, automakers will not let consumers spend more money because of subsidies.

A similar situation has occurred in the past several adjustments to the new energy subsidy policy. This also raises some questions. Is the profit margin of new energy vehicles very large and can be easily compressed?

In Qiu Junjun's view, there is not much profit margin for the production and sales of new energy vehicles. Automakers are willing to give up part of their profits because of the longer-term considerations. Some new energy auto companies with traditional car backgrounds are less likely to be on bicycles. Make money on it. Some manufacturers hope to make the scale up. After the scale, a little more amortization is also good for it.

In addition to taking the initiative to bear the impact of subsidies, automakers will be very keen to adjust product production and sales strategies based on new subsidy policies. According to Qiu Junjun, in terms of passenger cars, the role of the subsidy policy baton is very obvious. At the same time, the industry generally hopes that the future subsidy policy will be clear early. Car companies will push different cars according to the subsidy policy and try to get the most subsidies. The industry expects the best 2019 and 2020 policy standards, not repeated or two years.

It should be pointed out that the new energy automobile industry, including battery production, is developing at a high speed. Observing the new subsidy policy, it can be found that the setting of subsidy standards is very specific and contains many technical details. Only in this way can we fully play the role of subsidies so that the subsidies for real money can be effectively exchanged for the solid development of the new energy vehicle industry. Therefore, it is not easy to formulate a precise subsidy policy that can spend money on the cutting edge without being able to clarify the level of technological development in the future.

When the new energy vehicle subsidy policy was released at the beginning of 2017, the Ministry of Finance and other four departments had clearly confirmed that individuals should purchase pure electric vehicle subsidies until 2020. Then, when the subsidy is completely abolished, what level will China's new energy auto industry develop? Can it be expected when the subsidy policy was implemented?

Qiu Junjun pointed out that the current cost reduction curve is in line with policy expectations, but the increase in energy density is still relatively backward. According to the energy-saving new energy vehicle plan, the cost of the new energy vehicle power battery system is one yuan and one watt hour. In the long-term planning of the automotive industry, it is proposed that the system energy density of the power battery pack reaches 260 watt-hours per kilogram.

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