Eight trends of lithium-ion battery development in China in the future

People all over the world are pay attention to environmental issues, and each vehicle makers also vigorously promote new energy vehicles. Lithium-ion battery technology application is necessary, and the government also supports for new energy vehicles. Many city buses are now using trams. Lithium-ion battery development prospect is very good.

Forward-looking industry research institute of the China lithium battery cathode material industry development prospects and investment forecast analysis report preview "research has shown that China's mobile phone production showed a trend of fluctuations in growth, mobile phone production in 2007 to 606 million, the annual output has been increased to 2012 to 1.182 billion, October 1, 2013, China's mobile phone production reached 1.2 billion units. This is mainly our country resident living standards improve, consumption of purchasing power increase demand for mobile phones.

Lithium ion batteries the application prospect is very bright, it not only can be used in electronic products, electric tools, energy storage in electric cars, even also is recognized as the choice of otherwise, so the prospect is bright.

However, due to domestic influenced by some bad factors, many manufacturers to fry policy, careless, very few manufacturer can produce truly superior performance of lithium ion batteries, lead to domestic lithium electricity overall water quality with Europe and the United States and Japan and South Korea gap is growing. Have sprung up and lithium power plant, the country has more than 1000, but really can on quantity and been recognized by domestic and foreign markets and products stand the test of time, only a few dozen. A few of Zaozhuang, Shandong province the lithium battery manufacturers bigger size and the local represented by shun meaning lithium trams lithium trams manufacturers across the country have been gradually set up its industry leading position.

With the 2016 new energy vehicles in our country the expenses of the dust settles, new energy vehicles in March 2017 after began to accelerate development situation, and the world in 2017, developed new energy automobile development goals, foot flat multinational automakers is to develop new energy vehicles, and our country in new energy vehicles in the field of transportation promoted faster than expected, as a result, in 2020, the existing total dimensions on the target will be double is no longer a problem.

On September 24, transportation service department deputy director CAI unity said publicly, according to the current development speed, is expected to end of this year, our country city bus, taxi and city logistics distribution scale of the whole transportation industry of new energy car will break through 300000, ahead of schedule due to the development goals in 2020, as a result, our country will turn 2020 this goal of doubling, ascension to 600000 units, also shows that our country is expected to make the first in the city bus, taxi, trash, cleaning cars and city logistics distribution of pure electric field.

As the largest producer and one of the most important application market, our country in the world to further improve the status of lithium ion battery industry.

Steadily this year, with the new energy vehicles supporting policy adjustment, China's new energy vehicle production growth further stabilization, power battery will drive in the future scale of lithium ion batteries in China continued rapid growth, at the same time as the global developing trend of new energy vehicles has been formed, the future of our country power battery field in the global market share will continue to improve, especially in our country continuously to support policy and power battery standard, under the situation of the field of power battery could lead to the development trend of our country.

Steady growth trend: the industry scale, China's advantage is expected to expand

In 2017, the main application market growth is slowing, lithium ion battery for global lithium ion battery industry scale more than 300 billion yuan, grew a 4% decline in 2016.Under the new energy automobile promotion policies continue to drive China's electric car production reached 650000 in 2017, the global electric car market share will further enhance.

Trend 2: power battery led growth, market share of over 60%

In 2017, due to the domestic mobile phone brands have occupied the domestic market, basic increased difficulties of international market development, and growth is expected to fall to about 10%, notebook computers, tablet production decline will continue to narrow, but still keep the slide, wearable devices, unmanned aerial vehicles and other consumer products is expected to presents the fast growth momentum, but the overall small scale, in general, consumer lithium-ion battery market demand in 2017 will remain slow growth of around 3%.

Under the force of the state financial subsidies, in 2017 China's new energy vehicle market is expected to expand to 650000 units, up 25% from a year earlier, the lithium ion battery of electric bicycle market is expected to reach 5 million vehicles, and power tools, and other fields, power type lithium ion battery the size of the market in 2017 is expected to reach 30 GWH, year-on-year growth of 30%.Together, in 2017 China's power battery will lead the lithium-ion battery market growth in China, the proportion is expected to top 60%, power battery to pull the contribution rate of growth of lithium ion battery industry in China will be more than 90%.

Trend 3: subsidies falling fast, and new energy vehicles growth is lower

At the end of 2016, the ministry of finance, ministry of science and technology, ministry of industry and information technology, the national development and reform commission jointly issued the "new energy automobile application about adjusting fiscal subsidy policy notice (hereinafter referred to as the" notice ").According to the "notice" requirements, the new energy passenger car allowance changed little, only in accordance with the subsidies given TuiPo dropped 20%, and the mechanism of new energy bus subsidies TuiPo range is larger, more than 40%.Battery subsidies drastically TuiPo is much higher than before the market is expected, and put forward higher technical requirements.

Trend 4: new technology to accelerate the application of disruptive products

As lithium ion battery increasingly widely in various fields of application, especially in electric vehicles, new energy, military and other fields gradually promotion, countries and companies stepping up research and development support. Graphene, nanometer material, meanwhile, advanced materials preparation technology constantly improve, and lithium ion battery research and development to accelerate the integration, lithium-ion battery industry innovation speed is accelerated, appeared a variety of products and market, gimmicky. In the future, with continuous improvement of all kinds of new technology, including silicon carbon composite material and solid electrolyte of new materials is expected to be above the lithium ion batteries are widely used, the wearable devices, special environment, and other areas of the particular application will likely new disruptive lithium-ion battery products.

Trend 5: lithium ion battery performance is limited, and the new battery technology commercial will take time

At present, lithium sulfur batteries, lithium battery, aluminum - air graphite double lithium ion batteries, lithium batteries, ceramic new battery technology such as oxygen battery is mostly in the laboratory research stage, according to the industrialization of technological achievements, to large scale promotion needs at least 10 years.

Considering the safety factor of battery, need to verify the time may be longer. For part of the gradually mature technology, such as double carbon batteries, solid state lithium ion battery, etc., production technology is not mature, and the core technology is in the hands of two companies, limited output and the price seems expensive, difficult to achieve large-scale application in the near future. As for super capacitor, hydrogen fuel cells and zinc, lithium metal fuel cell has begun small-scale production technology, the price is higher, the market accept over a period of time.

Trend 6: power battery policy mutation, industry faces a major adjustment

In November 2016, the ministry of industry and information technology equipment industry department official is the motor power battery industry standard conditions (2017) "(draft), extensively solicit comments from all sectors of society. "Standard of automobile power battery industry conditions (2017)" (draft) promulgated in 2015, based on the auto motive battery industry standard conditions improved significantly lithium-ion power battery annual capacity index requirements, from the original 0.2 GWh/year up to 8 GWh/year.

At present, lithium ion power battery market is very competitive, industry is in a critical stage of transition, the pattern of the lithium-ion battery industry in China will be likely faces a major adjustment.

Trend 7: backbone enterprise advantage to consolidate, to further improve industry concentration

In 2016 China's new energy vehicle production continues to grow, but power battery to further improve market concentration, the top 10 power battery supplier market share from less than 70% of the 2015 rising to 82% in 2016.

Therefore, backbone enterprises in 2017 is expected to lead will continue to consolidate market share in power battery will further enhance, the top 10 suppliers more than 87% market share, compared with 2016 increased by more than 5%.

Regulate conditions effect, trend 8: remain market test

In September 2015 the lithium ion battery industry standard conditions (hereinafter referred to as the "standard conditions") promulgated formally, after report, approval and verification procedures, the first announcement list conform to the standard conditions of enterprises has been released in 2017.

Compared to Auto Motive Battery Industry Standard Conditions, the implementation of the Auto Motive Battery Industry Standard Conditions have released 5 batch list which contains nearly all main enterprises of lithium-ion power battery. Due to the lack of specific technical indexes but only capacity requirements, it accelerates the growth capacity, but it does not have apparent effect to the development of standard industry. Despite the Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard Conditions set technical indicators, but the demand is not severe. More than 70% of the enterprise can make it. At present, there are more than 400 lithium-ion battery industry upstream and downstream enterprises, but their levels of development are uneven, whether the implement of Lithium-ion Battery Industry Standard Conditions works or not, it remains to be tested by the market.

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