What is the biggest dilemma for ternary lithium batteries?

"There are many customers want to break the contract signed before New Year..." Standing on the slightly open automatic production workshop, located in one of ternary lithium battery in Shanxi province manufacturers, Wang Ran (not the real name) remembered a busy sight of old workshop, and then he trembled. The early spring temperatures in the north get higher, signs of recovery, and in Wang Ran mind, what's the weather like in spring this year was much colder than the winter last year ", "Wang Ran said.

Lose him more than one order, a lot of players in the industry a similar dilemma.

Wang Ran think fuse is that on January 24th the ministry of industry and information technology equipment department, director of a picture of a word from the wood, the suspension of the ternary lithium battery buses in a new energy automobile application recommended models directory. At that time, the industry into a maelstrom of vehicle manufacturers to cancel such orders, "saying" hundred enterprises, foreign enterprises to withdraw, such listed company to investors in news..."Butterfly effect" looms.

But Wang Ran still waiting, inquired about the message, "as if it has changed", some reports also gave him confidence, is government, after core institutions detection confirmed, ternary lithium battery bus access directory can be declared, however the news in the relevant person in charge of China's chemical and physical power industry association's eyes "not reliable", he said to the economic observer. So far, did not have any official information released by the ministry.

The brakes

Less than two months ago, a picture of wood that earthquake triggered industry words, reveal a policy adjustment. Specialists in motor-dom kwang-tzuu Chen's view, is an industry field and conventional policy, "the government from a security perspective, considering the manned hundreds of people of the necessity of the bus to avoid accident, suspended ternary lithium battery carry passenger car allowance, it's no surprise."

Ministry of industry and information minister MiaoWei on March 13, during the period of "two sessions", stressed that the new energy vehicles has two big bottleneck, one of which is the product side, to focus on to conquer represented by power battery product performance, reliability, range, life and other problems. This a few big problem in the ternary lithium batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries each have advantages and disadvantages, as well as the former product performance, range, while the latter advantage prominent on the reliability and long cycle.

In 2015, China's new energy auto sales hit 300000 units, the market gradually from its early into the growth period. Under this background, the vehicle power lithium battery demand sharply. Further enhance power battery safety, stability, and become the industry consensus. Said one widely cited data from 2011 to present, the domestic at least 22 new energy automobile fire accident happened, which, because of the power battery temperature is too high and cause of the fire is larger. Reporter hasn't been able to verify the source of the data, but the industry more approved data reflect the situation.

During the pause for ternary system bus subsidies news release, shortly before an electric bus spontaneous combustion accident in Hong Kong. Earlier last year on August 6, the ministry issued the implementation of energy saving and new energy automobile application notice hidden perils in safety management work. Nearly two years, subsidy policy to bring more than the expansion of industrial scale and safety, it also threw the scrutiny of wood from the same day a picture of new energy vehicle manufacturers cheat subsidies can peep malicious words.

Miit's explanation is that the ternary lithium battery is higher than the lithium iron phosphate battery energy and cycle performance is good, is an important development direction of the future lithium battery, but in this field late in our country, for the safety of the passenger development and validation is not enough, the ministry is considering further improve the new energy automotive product safety technical threshold, the organization carries out the ternary lithium battery bus models in the current safety standards under the system of risk assessment.

From their own perspective, Wang Ran doesn't want the government suspended ternary system. Of course, the government, from the perspective of the security do some policy change was understandable.

However, the adjustment of the key is to make him feel unprepared. Before, during and after the leadership of the ministry said the decision Wang Ran found that did not have relevant documents issued by the enterprise. In fact, as early as January 14 day labourer ministry released the catalog of new energy automobile application recommended models, the ternary system of electric commercial passenger car has disappeared." Not into the catalog of the models will not be able to enjoy government subsidies and tax free (10%) of preferential policy, this is real," said Wang Ran.

Wang Ran feel that this policy involves a lot of ternary lithium batteries the vital interests of the enterprise, such as before the policy issued to some company adjust the opportunity and time, may quell some of the enterprise.

After get news of companies, once advice to the Chinese chemical and physical power industry association, and later discovered that the proposal is not the association, but by the China association of automobile manufacturers. Reporter from authoritative sources dated February 2, the "three yuan power lithium ion battery application" in new energy bus safety measures, by the Chinese chemical and physical power industry association submit to ministry of industry and some Suggestions for enterprises, a reference, I hope the China association of automobile manufacturers to discuss, to develop a suitable and scientific evaluation system, speed up to batteries ternary material security authentication, open as soon as possible in the application of electric buses and promote security business.

Former ministry of equipment department deputy director told the economic observer, decision making, there are three yuan lithium battery of foreign-invested enterprises reflect the situation, but don't know. The China association of automobile manufacturers department related people don't think this opinion.

The battle for security

"Shock, fear," Wang Ran still remember clearly heard a picture of wood that sentence.He admitted that this kind of emotion is out of self-interest considerations, because it is "a piece of cake".

Car experts kwang-tzuu Chen told the economic observer, a new energy bus to carry around 3 tons of power battery, this kind of model the demand for power battery is amazing. First electric network, according to new energy vehicles including passenger cars, passenger cars, car, etc., and passenger car battery carrying amount to 9.63 Gwh last year, 61% of all new energy vehicles. Passenger cars, apparently, is between the ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery for the important position.

In many enterprises ternary order cancellation, the main production of lithium iron phosphate battery tech center, the kingdom of announcement in February this year, a total of more than one hundred million yuan of two order has been, this is a company in the first three quarters of last year 140% of income, total income is expected to exceed 5 billion yuan this year, it is expected that the company grew by more than 80%.

Million weft lithium power battery can expect three yuan material issue 1 GWh and lithium iron phosphate 0.8 GWh projects all reaches producing during the first half of the year. February 1 company announcement said that the lithium iron phosphate batteries with the system of three yuan two each have characteristics, their growth will be in the competition, so the company to development and production of both system. Continuous disclosure by major shareholders of an employee stock ownership plan, the oil supplies in the supplier list, continue to expand power battery production capacity, and so on, its share price in the latest week continues to rise sharply.

Kwang-tzuu Chen thinks, from the point of view of government, make the decision for security reasons behind it. Ternary lithium battery companies argue that the security of the power battery raw materials or not, and cannot delimit equal-sign, and application of product safety or not include process level and process factors such as quality control.

Kwang-tzuu Chen said that the domestic gap between ternary lithium battery enterprises with foreign enterprises, foreign only Samsung, LG, Panasonic, etc. Several large power battery company, the country's most long reach thousands of, the good and bad are intermingled of enterprises, product quality problems.

Since Ternary lithium battery enterprises Samsung SDI established, the product without accident. Their special in different stages of the membrane technology, factory safety management level and so on. Ternary lithium battery is one of the highlights of their investment, they located in the center of xi 'an hi-tech industry development zone, 21 km of Samsung ring new factory has invested 280 million yuan. By 2020, the company plans will be increased to 2200 employees, total investment of 600 million dollars.

About security issues, the personage inside course of study tells a reporter, the ternary lithium battery makers, in addition to the battery materials, electrolyte, the diaphragm of the aspects, such as improve on the quality assurance, more important is to want to do a good job of safety design.

For ternary lithium battery industry, under the condition of advanced technology in Japan and South Korea enterprise, promote the development of China's three component system is particularly urgent. Bak battery research and development center deputy senior engineer Song Huajie called for, hope to solve this problem as soon as possible, encourage the development of three yuan battery health steady forward. Study together by government, academia and relevant enterprises to strengthen the security of the new standard, according to the new standard to evaluate all battery products certification, after a new directory.

Who is the final winner

A pure electric car, battery costs can account for the cost of about 40%, the proportion of such a large, need to battery, new energy vehicles. Before that companies and investors are continuously explore new energy vehicles on the border of the various parameters can make money, in the lithium iron phosphate batteries and constantly struggle between "latecomers" ternary lithium batteries, recently there are more and more enterprises turn to the latter.

Lithium iron phosphate battery enterprises on behalf of BYD, for example, in August last year to launch a "song" models of carrying a ternary lithium batteries, the widely discussed in the industry, and even called the upstart ternary lithium battery take the upper hand, a transforming event. At present, involving three yuan stocks materials including Jiangte motor, Shanshan shares, and shares, Xiamen, China Baoan, Jiangxi tungsten industry front lithium dozens of listed companies, etc. Flush, according to data relating to listed companies of the concept of the lithium battery has nearly hundred.

Domestic iron phosphate lithium-ion battery development, early time back to ten years ago, in 2006, when the new energy automobile sprout has been 15 years, "temple founder technology NieLiang is then enter into the field of electric vehicles, he felt, that year domestic somehow rise thermal batteries, lithium iron phosphate AE23 origin is the United States," I look from now, when the domestic manufacturer decided to use the lithium iron phosphate is not done in-depth research and judgment of the future. Relatively blindly do."Kwang-tzuu Chen told reporters, at that time or even earlier, the second generation of Ni-Mh batteries more prevalent, belongs to the third generation of lithium-ion batteries, and the fourth generation, the fifth generation, the future which material will be king, is unknown.

After five years long, that time, do the electric car and no worry now, struggle with how to choose what kind of material, then consider above all is the car moving, engineering pass will only be considered commercial. Until the second half of 2010, another turning point in the power battery field, new energy vehicles in commercial representative cases, the E6 taxis began commercial operation in Hangzhou."That should be the first real commercialization of new energy vehicles in China, including electricity and get electricity two kinds, the material is iron phosphate lithium-ion batteries," NieLiang recalls, "but for five years, commercial situation is not ideal, after the state subsidies still difficult to profit, it is difficult to sustainable development".

Lithium iron phosphate battery commercialization in the year before, the 2009 national related department launched the "ten city thousand vehicles engineering", at the same time in the same year in February, the ministry of finance and ministry of science and technology jointly issued energy saving and new energy vehicle demonstration to promote fiscal subsidy funds management interim measures, energy saving and new energy automobile application demonstration engineering recommended models, models the directory according to the standard enjoy subsidies.

Policy support has not made industry developed rapidly, NieLiang said: "2011 industry open a salon where so many people today, then the Chinese New Year dinner sit up two tables, also sit." Beijing with SAP information consulting co., LTD chief adviser TongZiQian also smiled, said at the time to take part in a new energy BBS, unexpectedly someone mention below "electric car directly with a power generator can be?" the question.

Around 2011, the government support to encourage the development of all kinds of raw materials, power battery, in 2012, the national policy to support the eight power battery enterprises as an example, three yuan enterprise bak battery, lithium iron phosphate lithium-ion batteries Wanxiang, Chinaspecial lithium battery, etc.

Yan-long Liu said that after 8 companies in 2012 countries to support money, everyone from the development direction of national policy, think the future is more in the direction of three yuan, follow-up there are a lot of enterprise development as the direction of the three yuan. Later some including different experts have been saying that the government may consider security, in the passenger car in the future sustainable development is to three yuan, on the bus was more to the development of lithium iron phosphate.

Yan-long liu revealed that, as of September 2015, the enterprise production capacity, a preliminary statistics, more than 30 enterprises to build capacity in more than 300 watts, in addition to a small enterprise is three yuan, among them the lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for about 80% of the proportion.

From 2013 to 2015, power battery accelerates the development of industrialization, especially the growth last year to a higher level. At the same time, the domestic lithium iron phosphate batteries and widens the gap between the ternary lithium battery enterprises.

More companies involved in the ternary material. Bak battery research and development center deputy senior engineer Song Huajie said, original Bick is also doing the lithium iron phosphate batteries, moved to Shenzhen began to do the ternary lithium batteries, the starting point is lightweight and energy density of two problems. In addition, a response to a national many starker choices-and graver consequences-in planning means.

In 2015 the ministry of a regulation is, in the electronic logistics package for the whole package cannot be more than 25% of the whole vehicle quality, industry analysis, in the future light weighting this determines the lithium battery has become the mainstream in the subsequent three yuan.

Under the state council promulgated the "energy conservation and new energy vehicles industry development planning (2012-2020), are mentioned in the EKG (monomer battery energy density) to 2020 energy density of power battery module 300 wh/kg (corresponding to the monomer battery energy density at least more than 330 wh/kg).This makes more and more power battery and vehicle enterprises turned to the ternary lithium battery.

In recent years the rapid development of new energy vehicles, and so did the cost of the development of accounting for almost half of the power battery vehicle, and through a security or not, technical differences, struggle, the expenses of darkness, and many other interests, between the ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate batteries after years of struggle and eliminates, at this moment, in the ternary lithium battery's policy "on the brakes" more talking and ascend. Seemingly casual and accidental, or industrial development to a certain stage inevitable phenomenon, after the "brakes" ternary lithium battery or will open the new development of lithium iron phosphate batteries or temporary "accelerating".

"Two tigers strive" has its own market, which makes more technical route of natural evolution. In the process of the evolution, how the government plays a better role in them to promote the healthy development of industry bring people a deep thought after this round of policy "on the brakes" storm.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.