Analysis of the main reason that the shipment of power batteries is larger than the installed capacity

It is understood that China's power battery shipments in the first quarter of 2018 was 8.6GWh, which has an increase of 32.85%.

Main reason:

1) In the first quarter of this year, the output of new energy vehicles increased rapidly, and the increase in passenger cars, buses and special vehicles was as high as 196.07%, 214.6% and 364.72% respectively. In the first four months of 2017, the new energy automobile industry chain is in a period of policy digestion and absorption, and the entire process from materials, batteries, and vehicles is in the adjustment stage to meet new policies. In 2018, the adjustment policy was higher than expected, and the company's preparations were more complete, so the industry chain shipments continued to grow.

2) After the subsidy policy falls, the policy risk is reduced. Before June, it is a transition period to speed up battery shipments.

3) Part of the inventory of the battery companies in 2017, in order to ship as soon as possible, adopting a certain price strategy;

At the same time, the installed capacity of power batteries in the first quarter was 4.41GWh, and the shipment volume was much larger than the installed capacity. The main reasons were:

1) The battery is shipped to the OEM to produce and apply for a certificate. There is time difference of each months of 1-2 in the process. In addition, in the first quarter, the main production of new energy passenger vehicles, from the Q1 production point of view, passenger cars accounted for more than 90%. It is expected that there will be a certain impulse for the new energy bus in the second quarter. The installed capacity of the single battery of the passenger car is much larger than that of the passenger car. Some of the power batteries shipped by Q1 will be installed on the passenger car. The installed capacity will be reflected in Q2 and Q3.

2) The downstream application of power battery is abundant. In addition to passenger cars, cars, buses, special vehicles, etc. issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, low-speed vehicles and forklifts also require power batteries.

3) A backup battery is required for the rental mode, power exchange mode, etc.

4) The power performance of the production from 2014 to 2016 is attenuated. After some 2-3 years of operation, the performance of the battery has dropped significantly. It needs to be replaced with a new one.

From the technical route, in the first quarter of 2018, the proportion of ternary power batteries in power battery shipments reached 65.71%, an increase of 17.71 percentage points, mainly because: 1) the subsidy policy has a tendency to high energy density, indirect Promote the development of ternary power batteries; 2) The rapid development of new energy passenger vehicles, mainly equipped with ternary power batteries, has become the main driving force for the growth of new energy vehicles.

Under the background of the continuous decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles, the price pressure of power battery companies has increased, and the downward trend of power battery prices has not decreased. In the first quarter of 2018, the price of NCM ternary power battery dropped the most, reaching 10%, and has now dropped to 1.35 yuan / wh.

The price of power batteries continued to decline, but in the case of a substantial increase in shipments, the output value of China's power batteries in the first quarter of 2018 reached 13.5 billion yuan, an increase of 18.42%. The growth rate of power battery output is much lower than the growth rate of shipments, mainly because the new energy subsidy policy has further declined, and the subsidy has dropped sharply. The main engine plant has transferred some of the cost pressure to the power battery, so that the price of power battery continues to decline.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.