The anode material of new energy vehicle lithium-ion battery has obvious advantages

The negative electrode is a pole that flows out of the electron when the battery is discharging. Lithium-ion batteries mainly use graphite materials as the negative electrode. The graphite anode material is further divided into artificial graphite and natural graphite, and the power lithium battery mostly uses artificial graphite as the anode material. The new energy automobile industry has driven the high boom of the power battery industry, driving the demand for graphite anode materials to rise rapidly.

Lithium battery anode materials are mainly divided into carbon-based materials and non-carbon-based materials. Graphite materials in carbon-based materials are widely used, such as artificial graphite, natural graphite, and mesocarbon microspheres.

Soft carbon in carbon-based materials, such as petroleum coke and needle coke, is used directly as a negative electrode material, and more is used as a raw material for manufacturing artificial graphite or modified graphite. Among non-carbon based materials, titanium based materials and silicon based materials are more common.

Anode materials such as artificial graphite, natural graphite, mesocarbon microspheres, and lithium titanate have been mass-produced. Graphite anode materials have good comprehensive performance in all aspects and high cost performance. Although the lithium titanate material has a low specific capacity, the first efficiency and cycle life are high, and the fast charge performance is good, which is convenient in use.

Graphene has a higher specific capacity, but there is no technical breakthrough in other properties. Silicon-carbon composite materials have poor cycle life and safety, but the specific capacity is much higher than other materials, and the fast charge performance is good, which is the focus of future research and development of anode materials.

Power lithium battery industry is booming, demand for anode materials is growing rapidly

The main downstream applications for lithium batteries are consumer batteries, power batteries and energy storage batteries. Consumer batteries are mainly used in consumer electronics such as mobile phones, notebook computers and cameras; power battery applications are mainly electric bicycles and new energy vehicles; energy storage batteries are mainly used for power tools (also can be divided into the consumer electronics market), mobile base station power supplies, Household energy storage and grid energy storage.

Consumption of lithium battery growth tends to be stable

Demand for major consumer electronics products is close to saturation

Mobile phones, smart phones and laptops are the main products for consumer lithium battery installations. According to the statistics of real lithium research, in 2016, the battery installed capacity of these three types of products accounted for 85% of the consumer batteries. Demand for consumer electronics has experienced a period of rapid growth and is now near saturation.

In 2017, domestic mobile phones and smart phones shipped 4.91 million units and 4.61 million units, down about 12% from 2016. On notebook computers, domestic notebook computer sales continued to fall in 2016, at 1.65 million units.

Consumer lithium battery growth rate tends to be stable

Benefiting from the rapid growth of demand in the consumer electronics market, the installed capacity of consumer lithium batteries in 2014/2015 increased 38%-47% year-on-year. After 2016, the growth rate of installed capacity has declined. In 2017, the growth rate of consumer electronics lithium battery installed capacity has dropped below 10%, which is 8%.

The share of consumer electronics lithium battery installed capacity in total installed capacity has also decreased year by year, from 56% in 2013 to 29% in 2017. We expect that the installed capacity of consumer electronic batteries will reach 24.4/25.9/27.5GWh in 2018/2019/2020.

Lithium storage battery is small in scale, and the utilization potential of the ladder is huge.

Energy storage lithium battery is smaller in scale and slows growth

The energy storage field mainly includes market segments such as power tools, mobile base station power, home energy storage and grid energy storage.

In 2017, the installed capacity of lithium battery in industrial energy storage is 13.11GWh, which is much smaller than that of consumer electronic batteries and power batteries.

The installed capacity of energy storage lithium batteries in the total installed capacity of lithium batteries also decreased year by year, from 2013 to 2017 decreased by 10 percentage points.

The year-on-year growth rate of lithium batteries in the industrial energy storage sector has been declining year by year, and has dropped from 56% in 2014 to 7% in 2017. We estimate that the installed capacity of lithium storage batteries in 2018/2019/2020 will reach 13.8/14.5/15.2GWh.

Lithium-ion battery ladder has great potential for utilization

Grid upgrades boost demand for energy storage batteries. With the improvement of China's industrialization level, the power generation capacity of power systems and the transmission and distribution capacity of power grids continue to increase, and the peak-to-valley load difference of modern power systems increases.

At the same time, the integration of new energy sources such as wind power and solar energy has increased the complexity of the power system. The upgrading of the power grid and the use of new energy in parallel boosted the demand for energy storage batteries.

The battery energy storage technology has a short construction period, low operating cost and no impact on the environment, and has become the first choice for grid energy storage technology. At present, the mainstream types of energy storage batteries are: sodium-sulfur batteries, vanadium batteries, lithium batteries, lead-acid batteries, and the like.

Lithium batteries have further increased in the proportion of industrial energy storage batteries. Lithium batteries have higher specific energy and energy density, low self-discharge rate, no memory effect and no pollution to the environment, and all aspects of performance are superior to other energy storage battery types. According to the statistics of lithium battery big data,

In 2016, the installed base of lithium-ion batteries accounted for 62% of energy storage batteries. However, the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage is still small. The total installed capacity in 2016/2017 is 0.1/0.12GWh, and the installed capacity of energy storage lithium batteries is 0.063/0.086GWh.

The potential utilization of the power battery ladder is huge. When the remaining capacity of the new energy vehicle's power battery is reduced to 70%-80% of the initial capacity, it will not be able to meet the applicable requirements of the vehicle.

However, the decommissioned power battery has been tested, screened and reorganized, and still has the ability to be used in areas such as standby power supply and power storage with relatively good operating conditions and low battery performance requirements. The energy storage battery market is expected to take advantage of the opportunity of power battery ladders to usher in rapid growth.

From 2018 onwards, the first batch of domestic automotive power batteries will enter the market. According to the Geshi Automobile Report, the industry expects the “disposable” power battery to be 14.03GWh in 2018, and the lithium battery recycling value is 0.3 yuan/Wh. The power lithium battery recycling market is close to 5 billion yuan.

By 2020, this market will exceed 10 billion yuan, and the scrap will be about 20 times that of 2016.

Demand for lithium battery is rising, driving the growth of anode materials industry

The main application of power lithium battery

Lithium batteries are widely used in the power battery market due to their high specific energy, no memory effect and mature technology, and driven by energy saving and emission reduction industrial policies and market factors.

At present, power lithium batteries are commonly used in electric bicycles and electric vehicles; scrapped power batteries can also be dismantled and recycled, and enter the energy storage field through the use of ladders.

Lithium electric bicycle penetration rate still has room to rise

The production of lithium battery electric bicycles increased significantly from 1.17 million in 2011 to 3.18 million in 2014, with an average annual compound growth rate of 40% and a penetration rate of 4% to 9%. However, the demand for electric bicycles has become saturated, and total production has begun to fall.

Due to price reasons, lead-acid batteries are still dominated by the market, and the penetration rate of lithium batteries tends to be stable, maintaining around 9%. According to the incomplete statistics of the China Bicycle Association, from January to July 2017, the national electric vehicle output was 21.63 million units, and the lithium electric bicycle penetration rate was about 8%.

With the further decline in the cost of lithium batteries in the future, the market penetration rate of lithium-ion electric bicycles will have some room for growth.

The policy will benefit, and the new energy auto industry will continue to be booming.

The State Council's "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan" requires that in 2020 China's new energy vehicle production capacity will reach 2 million units, with cumulative production and sales exceeding 5 million units.

In order to vigorously develop the new energy automobile industry, China's governments at various levels have issued a number of support policies, such as subsidies for new energy vehicles, subsidies for construction and operation of charging piles, and purchase taxes, road and bridge fees, and parking fees for consumers , licenses and other preferential subsidies.

In 2017, China produced 794,000 new energy vehicles and sold 777,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of more than 50%.

Driven by the downstream outbreak, the total installed capacity of power batteries in China reached 36.23GWh in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%.

It is predicted that the compound annual growth rate of new energy vehicles will reach 38% from 2018 to 2020. In 2020, the output of new energy vehicles will reach 2.10 million, corresponding to the demand for power batteries of 101.1GWh.

The rapid increase in the output of new energy vehicles has driven the continued rapid growth of the power lithium battery market. Since 2015, the installed capacity of power batteries in the transportation market has surpassed the consumer electronics market, becoming the largest lithium battery application field. It is estimated that by 2020, the demand for domestic power lithium batteries will reach 109.2GWH.

Power battery drives the rapid growth of anode material demand

According to our forecast, the growth of consumer electronics demand will stabilize at a lower level in the future, and the installed capacity in the energy storage sector will be smaller, and the demand for power batteries will be the main driving force for the high growth rate of the lithium battery industry.

It is estimated that by 2020, the demand for power lithium batteries will reach 109.2GWh, the total demand for lithium batteries will reach 151.6GWh, and the demand for anode materials will reach 8.9/133,000 tons.

According to the average price of 60,000 yuan per ton, the domestic market for anode materials will be close to 8 billion yuan in 2020. If we calculate the export ratio of China's anode materials by about 30%, the market space will reach 12 billion yuan.

Industrial pattern of ruthenium anode materials

Stable industrial structure and stable leading position

Artificial graphite demand

The status of graphite anode materials is difficult to shake in the short term. In 2017, the negative electrode materials shipped 149,000 tons (including exports), including 10.4 tons of artificial graphite, 3.7 tons of natural graphite, and 0.8 tons of other negative electrode materials (lithium titanate, carbon-silicon composite materials, etc.).

Due to good negative electrode performance and excellent cost performance, artificial graphite and natural graphite account for 95% of total shipments of negative electrode materials, and it is difficult to shake the position in the short term.

The proportion of artificial graphite will be further increased. In 2014-2017, the proportion of natural graphite decreased from 38% to 25%, while the proportion of artificial graphite increased from 56% to 70%. This is because artificial graphite has high cycle life, good rate performance, and good compatibility with electrolytes, so it is mostly used in power lithium batteries. Although natural graphite has a specific capacity slightly higher than artificial graphite, the rate performance is poor, and the first discharge efficiency is low. Lower, more for consumer lithium batteries.

Thanks to the rapid growth in demand for new energy vehicle power batteries, the proportion of artificial graphite in the shipment of anode materials will further increase in the next three years.

China and Japan lead the market for the global anode material market

China and Japan are the world's major producers and sellers, accounting for more than 95% of the world. Globally, anode materials are concentrated in China and Japan. China's advantage lies in enriching graphite resources. Japan's advantage lies in advanced technology.

The top four Chinese and Japanese companies, Shenzhen Beitray, Hitachi Chemical, Shanghai Shanshan, and Mitsubishi Chemicals accounted for 67% of global production. The second echelon is also Japan's Mitsubishi Chemical, Japan Carbon and Jiangxi Ziwei Technology Co., Ltd.

China's negative electrode production accounts for more than 60% of world production. In 2015, the global negative electrode production was 110,800 tons, of which China shipped 72,800 tons, accounting for 65.7%.

The domestic leading position is stable and the advantages are significant

The leading position in the industry is stable and the advantages are obvious. In 2016, the domestic output of negative electrode materials was 118,000 tons, of which Betray accounted for 21%, Shanshan shares accounted for 19%, Jiangxi Zijing accounted for 15%, and CR3 reached 55%.

The output of artificial graphite anode materials is 79,000 tons, of which Jiangxi Zijing accounts for 22%, Shanshan shares account for 20%, Shenzhen Snow has 12%, and CR3 accounts for 54%. The output of natural graphite anode materials is 29,900 tons, and the proportion of Betray is as high as 55%, which is higher than the sum of other enterprises. Plus the second (Hunan Xingcheng, 14%) and the third (Jiangxi Zhengtuo, 9%), CR3 reached 78%.

The strong and strong, the advantage accumulation effect is significant. In the first half of 2017, the total output of domestic anode materials was 66,000 tons, an increase of 40% over the same period of last year. Compared with the market share in 2016, the top three Betray, Shanshan and Jiangxi Zijing increased 1-3 percentage points and CR3 increased by 7 percentage points.

It can be seen that the business growth rate of leading enterprises exceeds the industry average level, the market share is further concentrated to leading enterprises, and the effect of accumulation of advantages is more and more significant.

The upstream graphite is rich in resources and the cost has a natural advantage.

China's graphite reserves rank third in the world.

According to the "MineralCommoditySummaries2016" released by the National Geological Bureau in 2016, as of the end of 2015, the global proven reserves of natural graphite proved to be 230 million tons.

Turkey is the world's richest source of graphite resources, with proven reserves of 90 million tons, accounting for 39.1% of the global total; followed by Brazil with proven reserves of 72 million tons, accounting for 31.3% of the global total; China ranked third The proven reserves are 550 million tons, accounting for 23.9% of the global total.

The abundant graphite mineral resources make China's anode material enterprises occupy the natural low cost advantage.

China's graphite resources are mainly distributed in Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia. According to the China Industrial Information Network, as of the end of 2015, the proven reserves of crystalline graphite in China were 45,297,300 tons, of which Heilongjiang was 2,155.98 million tons, accounting for 47%, and Inner Mongolia's reserves were 8,801,700 tons, accounting for 19%; cryptocrystalline graphite was proved. The basic reserves are 81.799 million tons, including 3,364,300 tons in Hunan and 1,603,600 tons in Shaanxi.

China is the world's largest producer and consumer of graphite.

China has formed six major graphite production and processing bases (Jinxi, Heilongjiang, Luobei, Heilongjiang, Pingdu, Inner Mongolia Xinghe, Hunan Yinzhou and Jilin Lanshi), which mainly produce and export low-end products. In 2015, the output of graphite was 860,000 tons (including about 660,000 tons of crystalline graphite), accounting for 67.7% of the world's production. The output of the six bases accounted for 86% of the country.

China is the world's largest exporter of graphite. Nearly one-third of China's graphite material production is exported, and about 80% of export products are low value-added products.

From 2000 to 2015, the cumulative export of graphite was 6.61 million tons, with an annual average of 413,000 tons, and the export volume accounted for 30.5% of the production. In 2015, the export volume was 251,000 tons, accounting for 79.0% of the world. Japan is the world's largest importer of graphite, accounting for more than 50% of the world's imports, of which more than 80% are imported from China. From 2000 to 2015, Japan imported 2.95 million tons of graphite from China, accounting for 44.6% of China's exports.

Layout leading customers, rapid expansion of production capacity

The battery industry is highly concentrated, and the echelon is clearly layered.

The installed capacity of the power battery industry in 2017 was 36.23GWh, a year-on-year increase of 29.2%. In terms of market share, the first echelon Ningde era and BYD have great advantages and the second echelon is relatively fierce.

(1) The first echelon: In 2017, the market share of Ningde Times increased by 4 percentage points, surpassing BYD, ranking first; BYD's market share dropped by 11 percentage points, but still leading the third place, Watmar 9 percentage points .

(2) The second echelon: Market share of Waterma and Guoxuan Hi-Tech decreased; Bicke's battery market share increased by 2%, ranking second.

(3) The third echelon: Tianjin lishen's market share has increased compared with last year; Fueng Technology's market share has increased by 2%, ranking among the third echelon.

Actively deploying faucets and rapidly expanding production capacity

All the major anode materials companies have layouts in the first three echelons of the power battery industry. In particular, Shanshan, Beitui and Jiangxi Ziyan have not only cooperated with domestic battery leading enterprises, but also have been the mass production suppliers of international leaders such as Samsung, LG and Panasonic.

Rapid expansion of production capacity and oversupply of anode materials

The negative electrode material industry has lower technical barriers and relatively mature technology. Under the general expectation of the high power of the downstream power battery industry, major negative electrode materials companies have invested in building new capacity, and new companies have entered the negative electrode materials industry.

However, according to the statistics of the lithium grid, the total capacity of China's lithium battery anode materials in 2017 was as high as 370,000 tons, while the overall output was only 185,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of the anode material industry was only about 50%.

Industry trends

High energy density and fast charge are future technology trends

Policy and market need high energy fast charging technology solutions

In terms of national policies, the four ministries and commissions of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology clearly stated in the Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive power battery Industry: In 2020, the specific energy of lithium-ion battery cells is >300Wh/kg, and the system specific energy is 260Wh/kg.

The performance of graphite anode materials is close to its theoretical limit, and the technical solution of graphite materials as anodes cannot meet this requirement.

In 2018, the “Notice on Adjusting Financial Subsidies for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles”, the financial subsidies correspond to the performance requirements of battery energy, cruising range and other performance requirements, and the battery performance requirements are increased, encouraging the industry to develop batteries with high energy density solution. In terms of market customer demand, lithium battery charging convenience and cruising range are important factors affecting customer experience.

The average cruising range of pure electric passenger car models in the “Recommended Models for New Energy Vehicles (3rd Batch of 2018)” has exceeded 350km. However, the average new energy vehicle charging time is about 5-8 hours, and the fast charging time is about 1-2 hours.

Compared with traditional energy vehicles, new energy vehicles have much room for improvement in terms of ease of use, especially in terms of high energy density and fast charge performance of batteries.

Lithium titanate still occupies a seat, excellent fast charge performance

Lithium titanate has excellent fast charge performance. Lithium titanate has a three-dimensional lithium ion diffusion channel peculiar to the spinel structure, and thus has excellent power characteristics. The diffusion coefficient of lithium ions in lithium titanate crystals is 2x10-8cm2/s, which is an order of magnitude higher than that of graphite anodes. The charging rate of lithium titanate battery can reach 10-20C, while the charging ratio of ordinary graphite anode material is only 2-4C.

Lithium titanate is widely used in electric buses and energy storage. Lithium titanate battery has high safety, long cycle life, wide operating temperature range, and can be quickly charged and discharged. Therefore, it is used in electric commercial vehicles (bus, rail transit, etc.), energy storage market (frequency modulation, power grid quality, wind farm, etc.) and industry. The field (port machinery, forklifts, etc.) is widely used.

Zhuhai Yinlong, a domestic new energy vehicle manufacturer, also uses lithium titanate as a negative battery technology solution.

Silicon germanium carbon composites have high energy density and will become the future direction of anode materials.

Silicon material has high specific capacity and can be quickly charged, which has the most development prospects. The theoretical energy density of graphite is 372 mAh/g, while the theoretical energy density of silicon exceeds 10 times, up to 4200 mAh/g. The use of silicon materials as battery negatives to increase battery energy density has become one of the recognized directions in the industry.

China's negative electrode material manufacturer Betray's silicon-carbon composite anode material has been mass-produced, and the customer is Samsung of South Korea.

There is still a bottleneck in mass production of silicon materials, and the trend of silicon-carbon composites is on the rise.

The bottleneck in the use of silicon materials is the poor cycle performance: the high expansion ratio of silicon particles in the deintercalation of lithium (the silicon negative charge and discharge expansion can reach 360%, while the ordinary graphite is only 10%), causing the negative electrode to decay rapidly during the cycle. The continuous growth of the SEI film on the surface of the silicon particles causes irreversible consumption of the electrolyte and lithium ions.

At present, a relatively mature technical solution is to use a carbon material having a small volume effect and good cycle stability as a carrier, and incorporating a silicon material having a high specific capacity as a main active body to synthesize a silicon carbon composite material. Silicon-carbon composites can have the negative effect of reducing the volume expansion of silicon materials during charging and discharging.

The silicon carbon composite process is coated, doped and embedded. Tesla uses a carbon-coated siloxane technology solution. By adding 10% silicon-based materials to artificial graphite, silicon-carbon composite materials have been applied to the production model Model3. The battery has an energy density of 300 wh/kg and a battery capacity of 550 mAh/g or more.

The price of bismuth graphite anode material is squeezed by upstream and downstream

Graphite anode material process and cost composition

The graphite anode material industry has a low threshold, and the gross profit margin is in the middle of the four major materials of lithium batteries (positive material, anode material, electrolyte and separator), which is about 25%-35%.

Major anode companies have formed their own technical routes in long-term production, with differences in raw material selection and process design. This difference has led some companies to establish unique advantages in production process management and cost control, winning in the competition.

The production process of natural graphite anode materials is simpler than that of artificial graphite.

The raw materials are mainly graphite ore, flake graphite and spherical graphite. They are made into natural graphite anode materials by coating, carbonization, dispersing, graphitization, sieving and modification.

The raw materials of artificial graphite anode materials are mainly natural graphite, coke and asphalt, which are obtained through a series of processes such as coarse crushing, crushing, modification, shaping and graphitization.

The graphitization process has high energy consumption and strict environmental protection requirements, so most companies choose to process outsourcing.

Depending on the type of product, raw material procurement accounts for about 25-35% of the cost per ton of anode materials, and the cost of graphitization outsourcing processing can reach 50%-65%. The production of natural graphite also requires graphitization.

Industry opportunities

1. Develop high-tech materials and promote industrial upgrading. The industrialization of silicon-carbon composite materials for anode materials companies has begun to take shape. Betray has already achieved mass supply to South Korea's Samsung, which has a capacity of 1,000 tons per year; Shanshan, Jiangxi Zhengtuo, Shenzhen Snow and other companies have plans for mass production of silicon carbon materials.

2. Vertically integrate the supply chain to control cost risks. Betray is involved in the graphite raw material industry. In 2017, it increased its holding of Jixi Changyuan Mining to 65% to ensure the supply of graphite. Shanshan and Betray have the annual graphitization processing capacity of 7,000 tons and 5,000 tons respectively. The cost control advantage is obvious.

3. Layout leading customers reduce downstream competition risks. The leading growth of downstream is determined, and negative electrode materials companies are actively deploying leading battery companies, such as CATL, BYD, and Guoxuan Hi-Tech.

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