The development prospect of lithium battery in China in the next 5 years

Lithium battery is a kind of battery that uses lithium metal or lithium alloy as negative electrode material and uses non-aqueous electrolyte solution. It is the battery with the highest energy density and the best comprehensive performance in secondary battery technology. Its market share has been increasing year by year since its birth. Compared with other rechargeable batteries, lithium-ion batteries have the advantages of high energy density, high voltage, long life, and no memory effect.

Lithium-ion batteries have occupied the main market of consumer electronics products such as mobile phones and notebook computers. In the future, with the further improvement of lithium battery production process and battery performance, it will occupy the main markets in the fields of energy storage batteries and power batteries. In 2016, the output of lithium batteries in China reached 7.842 billion, a year-on-year increase of 40%. Then Coating Online will make a brief analysis of the development prospects and scale prediction of China's lithium battery industry in the next five years.

Favorable factor

1. Industry standards and regulations are promulgated

In recent years, charging treasures and mobile power supplies have developed rapidly, and the market is hot, with a very wide range of application groups. Due to the low barriers to entry for mobile power and the lack of mandatory implementation standards in the industry, the quality of this product is mixed, and safety incidents of self-ignition and explosion of mobile power are not uncommon. China's first mandatory standard for lithium-ion batteries - "Safety Requirements for Lithium-Ion Batteries and Battery Packs for Portable Electronic Products" was officially implemented on August 1, 2015. This standard is conducive to the healthy development of the lithium battery industry.

In order to strengthen the management of lithium-ion battery industry, improve the development level of the industry, guide the industrial transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment, and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the lithium-ion battery industry, on August 31, 2015, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Lithium-ion battery industry standard conditions." The document regulates industrial layout and project establishment, production scale and process technology, product quality and performance, comprehensive resource utilization and environmental protection, safety management, health and social responsibility, supervision and management.

In November 2016, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Lithium-ion battery integrated standardization technology system", setting the future goal, that is, by 2020, the technical level of lithium-ion battery standards has reached the international level, initially forming a scientific and rational, advanced technology, coordinated support Lithium-ion battery integrated standardization technology system, revised and revised 80 standards, including 70 new (3 mandatory standards, 67 recommended standards), revised 10 recommended standards, in general to meet the needs of lithium-ion battery industry development . This document plays an important role in promoting the healthy and orderly development of the lithium-ion battery industry and further enhancing the guidance, regulation and guidance of standards for industrial development.

2. New energy vehicles drive growth

In 2012, the State Council discussed and approved the “Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2012-2020)”, which clarified the main strategic orientation of pure electric drive for the transformation of the automobile industry, and promoted the popularization of non-plug-in hybrid vehicles. The goal of more than 5 million vehicles by 2020 is proposed. The introduction of the "Planning" in the invisible outlines a huge market profile for the power battery industry, the core component of energy-saving and new energy vehicles.

In July 2014, the State Council issued the “Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles”, re-emphasizing the development of new energy vehicles as a national strategy.

Coatings Online believes that the rationalization and introduction of the long-term mechanism for the development of new energy vehicles will promote the future of the industry. The mechanism of imposing fines and supplementing the prizes will be the long-term driving force of the new energy automobile industry after the subsidies are completely withdrawn. Benefiting from the continuous growth of new energy vehicles, the lithium battery industry has ushered in a new round of development opportunities.

3. Large-scale development of commercialization of energy storage industry

In June 2014, the state council issued the strategic action plan for energy development (2014-2020), which introduced energy storage into the national energy planning for the first time. It proposed to strengthen the overall planning of power supply and power planning, scientifically arrange peak regulation, frequency regulation and energy storage supporting capacity, and effectively solve the problems of wind abandoning, water abandoning and light abandoning.

On June 7, 2016, the National Energy Administration issued the Notice on Promoting the Participation of Electric Power Storage in the Compensation for the Electric Power Auxiliary Service Compensation (Market) Mechanism in the “Three North” region, and for the first time established the status of electric energy storage as an independent market entity. It is clear that the electricity storage can participate in the FM frequency peaking auxiliary market service. The new policy will accelerate the commercialization of the energy storage industry through the improvement of the auxiliary service market compensation mechanism.

Energy storage technology is a strategic support for the transformation of energy structure and the transformation of power production and consumption patterns in the future. Driven by the development of energy storage technology and commercialization trends, power lithium batteries, as one of the protagonists of the new energy industry, will also usher in new opportunities for development. The large-scale development of energy storage will promote the extension and integration of the lithium battery industry chain, and promote the power lithium battery industry to connect with the capital in the middle and lower reaches, and synchronize with the market to achieve win-win cooperation.

4. The market share of Chinese enterprises has expanded

After more than a decade of development, the global lithium-ion battery industry has basically formed a pattern of three-point world in China, Japan and Korea. China, South Korea, and Japan all have their own characteristics in the lithium-ion battery market competition. The three-point world has been maintained and will continue to be maintained for quite some time.

For Chinese power battery companies, under the protection of policies, they are getting bigger and stronger. According to the coating online, in the global lithium battery sales rankings in 2016, 15 of the top 20 were occupied by Chinese companies; among the only 6 companies with annual sales of 10 billion Yuan, China 3, 2 in Korea and 1 in Japan.

Unfavorable factors

1, poor security

In the development process of lithium batteries, because of the different positive and negative materials and their formulations, there are many unsafe problems such as explosion and combustion. On the one hand, when the user is using, the short circuit occurs due to incorrect use method, and a combustion explosion occurs. On the other hand, the chemical properties of lithium ions are very active. Under the cooperation of graphite anodes, once high temperatures occur, explosive combustion is likely to occur. Therefore, manufacturers usually install lithium battery protection boards inside the batteries to protect the batteries. However, some of the brand-name batteries are very different from the brand batteries in the raw materials and assembly process. The quality of the lines and protection boards used is not high, and it is easy to be natural after aging.

2. Economic environment

In 2015, the global economic recovery was slow, and China’s economic structure, micro-variation and turmoil intensified. In 2016, the Chinese economy will continue to bottom out. Affected by macroeconomic and national policies, the operational risks of downstream applications in the lithium battery industry lead to increased risk of bad debts, which may affect the development of the industry.

In addition, the lithium battery industry has unfavorable phenomena such as repeated investment in production capacity and disorderly competition, which is not conducive to the long-term healthy development of the industry.

3. The overseas market share is not high

The strong rise of Chinese battery companies is because China is the world's largest new energy vehicle market (in 2016, China's electric vehicle brand production accounted for 50% of the world's total, and is still soaring), and there are policy support. Overseas, it is still the world of Panasonic, LG Chem, and Samsung SDI, and their market share is as high as 76%.

Compared with domestic manufacturers, international giants have comparative advantages in terms of battery consistency, stability, and cycle life, and are also attractive to downstream OEMs.

4. Environmental issues

The pollution of the lithium battery itself is not serious, but in the process of extraction and smelting, chemical substances such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and polypropylene dichloride are produced, which may cause environmental pollution.

Lithium batteries have less environmental pollution than other batteries, so fewer companies recycle lithium batteries. However, the discarded lithium battery contains a large amount of non-renewable and economically valuable metal resources, such as cobalt, lithium, nickel, copper, aluminum, etc., coating online believes that if it can effectively recycle discarded or unqualified lithium batteries, not only It can reduce the pressure on the environment of the waste battery and avoid the waste of metal resources such as cobalt and nickel.

China's lithium-ion battery production forecast

In 2016, China's lithium-ion battery production was 7.84 billion, an increase of 35.8% year-on-year; from January to June 2017, the output reached 4.68 billion, an increase of 40.9%. According to the “2017-2011 China Lithium Battery Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report” released by China Investment Consulting, it is estimated that China’s lithium-ion battery production will reach 9.6 billion in 2017 and will compound in the next five years (2017-2021). The growth rate is about 17.73%, and the output of lithium-ion batteries in China will reach 18.5 billion in 2021.

China's lithium-ion battery sales revenue forecast

According to the statistical analysis of China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the sales revenue of lithium-ion batteries in China reached 133 billion Yuan in 2016, a year-on-year increase of 35%. According to the "2017-2021 China Lithium Battery Industry Investment Analysis and Forecast Report" released by China Investment Consulting, it is estimated that the sales revenue of China's lithium-ion battery will reach 164.9 billion Yuan in 2017, and the annual average of the next five years (2017-2021) The compound growth rate is about 18.24%. In 2021, China's lithium-ion battery sales revenue will reach 322.3 billion Yuan.

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