Analysis of the four major trends in the cathode material market in 2018

Affected by factors such as adjustment of subsidy policies and fluctuations in raw material prices, various changes have taken place in the field of cathode materials.

Since the second half of 2017, the positive electrode material market has shown the phenomenon: the lithium iron phosphate material is cold, the product price and gross profit declines significantly; the demand for ternary materials rises rapidly, and the cobalt price surges to promote the ternary price increase; the subsidy amount and energy Density-linked, high-nickel ternary into the future mainstream; ternary and lithium manganate doping to reduce costs, ternary materials to replace lithium cobalt oxide; new cathode materials commercialization acceleration, etc., the specific changes are as follows:

01 material enterprise net profit polarization ternary upward iron lithium down

Affected by the subsidy policy adjustment, the ternary battery with higher energy density advantage has won the favor of more OEMs. The rapid increase in the market share of the ternary power battery directly drives the growth of production and sales of ternary materials. At the same time, the supply of upstream cobalt raw materials is scarce and mainly depends on imports. The soaring price of cobalt directly boosts the price of ternary materials, and the price and price increase and increase the net profit of ternary materials enterprises. The lithium iron phosphate material is the bottleneck due to energy density. The demand has dropped significantly. At the same time, the price of lithium carbonate in the upstream raw material has remained at a high price, resulting in a decline in the gross profit margin of lithium iron phosphate materials, resulting in an increase in the revenue of lithium iron phosphate materials companies.

High-tech lithium battery has been found in the 2017 annual report and the 2018 semi-annual report of the listed company, including Dangsheng Technology, Shanshan, Keheng, Xiamen Tungsten and other ternary materials companies, which have ushered in several times the net profit of the company. The development trend of the company, while the main products of lithium iron phosphate materials, such as Anda Technology, Jin Li Technology, Ou Sai Energy, Yantai Zhuoneng, etc., suffered a sharp decline in net profit, showing a trend of polarization.

According to research data from the Institute of Advanced Research and Development of Lithium Power Research (GGII), the total shipment of domestic cathode materials in the second quarter of 2018 was 64,100 tons, an increase of 13.7%. Among them, ternary materials rose by 52.1% year-on-year, and lithium iron phosphate fell by 33.6% year-on-year. Ternary materials have become the main driving factor for the growth of cathode materials market.

02 power battery de-cobalt significantly high nickel ternary began to increase

The subsidized amount is directly linked to the energy density and the demand for power battery energy density is urgently affected. Battery companies and OEMs are getting more subsidies. The current battery technology route is moving from NCM523 to NCM622 and NCM811/NCA. Under the dual pressure of rising raw materials and downstream subsidies, the trend of de-cobalting of ternary power batteries is obvious, and high-nickel ternary cathode materials have become the optimal solution.

At present, enterprises including Hunan Shanshan, Dangsheng Technology, Ningbo Rongbai and Tianjin Bamo have successively mass-produced high-nickel ternary cathode materials, and the application of high-nickel 811/NCA materials in the power battery market in the first half of 2018 has gradually increased. It is expected that from 2019 to 2020, more cathode materials enterprises will mass produce high-nickel ternary materials, and the downstream market demand will further increase, thus accelerating the replacement process of high-nickel ternary to NCM523 and NCM622.

03 ternary manganese-doped reduction cost 3C field material replacement tide

Although the market demand for ternary materials continues to rise, which drives the growth of material companies, the continued high prices of ternary materials have reduced the profit margins of a large number of battery companies. Under the dual goal of pursuing energy density increase and cost reduction, the ternary doped lithium manganate cathode material scheme has become a viable option for many power battery companies.

According to the customer's requirements for cost, the battery factory can set the doping ratio of lithium manganate to 8:2, 7:3, and even worse, it can achieve 5:5, and the cost reduction space can reach 5%-15%. .

It is understood that after the ternary material is doped with manganese, the positive electrode material will have a positive effect in reducing cost, improving safety and increasing the magnification. In the case that the cobalt price has maintained a high price for a long time, the attempt of the power battery company in the ternary manganese doping will continue to heat up.

In the field of power, ternary manganese doping can be an effective way to reduce costs. In the field of consumer products with low capacity requirements and low performance requirements, lithium battery companies are actively seeking alternative materials for lithium cobalt oxide, including ternary, multi-component and lithium manganate materials.

At present, mainstream cathode materials companies, including Dangsheng Technology and Ningbo Rongbai, are actively researching and developing relevant multi-materials. Dangsheng Technology also said that several high-voltage and high-rate multi-materials developed by the company have been replaced by lithium cobalt oxide in downstream customers.

04 Commercialization of new anode materials is accelerating

In terms of improving the energy density of the battery, it is necessary to achieve the national goal of 300wh/kg in 2020 and the system exceeds 220wh/kg. The high-nickel positive electrode with silicon-carbon negative electrode is currently recognized in the industry. However, to further achieve the goal of 350wh / kg or even 400wh / kg, it is necessary to find a new generation of cathode materials, of which lithium-rich manganese base is widely optimistic.

Previously, the industry has been conducting industrial research on lithium-rich manganese-based materials, but it has been unable to break through the slow commercialization of lithium-rich manganese-based batteries. But since 2018, this situation has changed dramatically.

At the end of 2017, Zhejiang Aoyou Power System Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “Aoyou Power”) released a lithium-rich manganese-based power battery that can be industrialized. It has been stably mass-produced at 200-220Wh/kg, and is expected to produce energy density in 2018 up to 250Wh/kg.

In May 2018, Aoyou Power announced that its first lithium-rich manganese battery passed the national strong inspection, which is also the first lithium-rich manganese battery in China that passed the national strong inspection.

In July, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the 310th batch of "Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturers and Products Announcement", and Aoyou Power provided a pure electric box for Xinri (Wuxi) Development Co., Ltd. and Jiangsu Luzhou Zhouxin Energy Vehicle Co., Ltd. The logistics vehicle is equipped with its lithium-rich manganese-based battery independently researched and developed, which realizes the first supporting application of lithium-rich manganese-based battery in the field of new energy vehicles.

At the same time, Aoyou Power has also signed a strategic purchase agreement with chery commercial vehicles. Chery plans to purchase from our company no less than 10,000 sets of lithium and manganese rich batteries in 2019, which means that lithium and manganese rich batteries will soon be commercialized on a large scale.

In this case, the commercialization of new anode materials, including high voltage lithium niobate and lithium nickelate will be accelerated.

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