New energy vehicles are optimistic about growth prospects BHP Billiton and other miners turn to provide battery-grade nickel

LME (London Metal Exchange) nickel prices have been ups and downs in recent days due to concerns about rising trade frictions. However, this incident does not affect the preference of the non-ferrous industry for nickel prices. Mining giants such as BHP Billiton confirmed to reporters that they are turning to high-purity battery -grade nickel for their prospects of explosive growth in new energy vehicles.

Recently, Eduard Haegel, president of BHP's Nickel West Assets, revealed at a high-level battery materials conference that globally, electric vehicle production and sales have become more active in the past year, from Volvo, Daimler, GM and Ford. When automakers plan for the next five years, they are also very active in deploying electric vehicles. BHP Billiton believes that the compound annual growth rate of electric vehicle sales in the future is expected to reach 30% in 2030, and the growth rate will reach 40% in the “low carbon scenario”. It is clear that automakers need and expect battery manufacturers to offer high-performance power batteries to match such high expected growth rates.

At present, NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) and NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum) ternary materials have gradually become the mainstream cathode materials for passenger car power batteries. Haegel said that at present, the largest application of nickel is in the manufacture of stainless steel, and in the future, high purity (battery grade) nickel is needed. Nickel-rich cathode materials have higher energy density and lower metal input costs. The demand for nickel in the battery industry will increase significantly.

“In fact, high-purity nickel extraction is not easy.” Haegel said that BHP Nickel West Nickel Mine is increasing the supply of high-purity nickel by increasing investment to eliminate technical bottlenecks. At the end of this month, BHP NickelWest will have the latest breakthrough in technology upgrades to further increase supply. It is understood that most of the high-grade nickel producers have no new investment, and some are even reducing their investment.

Haegel said that BHP Billiton will sell 90% of its nickel to the battery industry in the future, and it may take only 3-4 years to achieve this goal. This year, Nickel West Nickel has planned to sell 65-70% of its nickel to the battery industry, and the corresponding nickel sales will reach 4.5-5 million tons.

The head of the metal market of another mining giant, Vale, said that during the period 2020-2025, electric vehicles will be at the same level as fuel vehicles, which means that the cost of electric vehicles will fall further. The nickel content in the power battery is increased, and the amount of cobalt used is drastically reduced, so that the battery cost is significantly reduced. At present, there are products such as ferronickel and nickel pig iron, but the demand for high-purity nickel (battery grade nickel) is higher in the future, and battery-grade nickel may even be classified separately. However, he is also worried that the current industry's forecast of nickel prices is not enough to attract capital into investment. In the view of domestic non-ferrous market participants, the recent rise in nickel prices in various factors is more conducive to capital investment in high-purity nickel.

Institutional experts such as McKinsey predict that nickel for future use in stainless steel and nickel or two-stage differentiation for battery materials, battery-grade nickel or have a special price range. Nickel needs an increment of 1 million tons to meet the needs of electric vehicles. China is expected to use low-cost technology to smelt high-purity nickel in the next five years.

Yang Bo, chief analyst of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Nickel Industry, predicts that 14% of China's metal nickel consumption in 2018 will enter nickel sulphate production and participate in new energy vehicles by converting to nickel sulphate. In 2018, the demand for ternary precursors for nickel sulfate is expected to double to 335,000 tons. Global expansion of nickel sulphate, including China, is underway.

The Antecco nickel-cobalt research team said that the current inventory of nickel has declined overall. Although the nickel balls and nickel particles are relatively high in stock, they can be used to produce battery-grade nickel sulfate in raw materials, and the prospects for further destocking will appear in the future. The development of high-nickel ternary materials in the power battery market is entering the fast lane. As the price of stainless steel, the most important application market for nickel has risen, it has supported the nickel price.

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