Analysis of Superheat Depth of Lithium Battery: National Investment in Scattered Sand

With a large amount of private capital pouring into the lithium battery industry and local governments enjoying the lithium battery industry, vehicle companies, traditional automotive parts companies, non-automotive battery manufacturers, and lithium battery upstream materials manufacturers have all entered the dynamic lithium battery production field.

At the same time, the pursuit of the capital market has further intensified the heat of the lithium electricity industry. Recently, a number of lithium-electric companies have landed in the A-share market, and created a rise of about 186 % on the first day of listing, closing and closing for four consecutive trading days. According to statistics, the top rise since this year has been occupied by lithium-ion concept stocks.

Lithium overcapacity?

"China's lithium batteries are indeed overheated, and even somewhat horrible. Now they are two or three hundred million yuan in one shot. So many resources are invested, but there is no output. They are all empty. "On the 13th, Dongming, chairman of Hengzheng Technology Suzhou Co., Ltd., which focuses on the production of lithium batteries for cars, said in an interview with this newspaper:" As far as I know, some companies that produce lithium battery equipment this year sell equipment. Hundreds of millions. "

Dongming told reporters that private investment has its own purpose, and some are for "enclosure". This is more in line with the desire of local governments to attract investment. Another kind is to invest in real estate. After investing in this project, take this project to a bank loan. One loan is a few hundred million yuan. It is said that it is to study battery materials, and the money borrowed is used for other purposes to build houses.

According to statistics, as of 2010, China's power lithium battery industry has a capacity of 2 billion angstroms, which is mainly distributed in the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, the three eastern provinces, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tang auto industry agglomeration area, of which the Pearl River Delta has a capacity of 700 million angstroms. The Yangtze River Delta, the three eastern provinces, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Tang production capacity are all 300 million to 400 million hours.

Investment in lithium-powered batteries is still well on the way to 2015. Lithium-ion battery production base will be put into production within 3 years in Beijing Pulder, Shanghai Jieneng and other vehicle factory participating enterprises; Lishen and Boston Energy will soon start the construction of a powerful lithium battery production base in Chongqing; Wan Xiang, Li Yuan, BYD and other companies have announced production capacity expansion plans.

Previously world-renowned consulting firm Frost & amp; Sullivan released a report showing that under a series of investments, China's power lithium battery production capacity will reach 3.9 billion angstroms in 2015, while in 2015, China's passenger car EV/PHEV and electric commercial vehicles demand about 120,000 vehicles and need to consume lithium batteries. About 900 million angstroms, Only 23 % of current capacity.

However, Luolan·beige's report on the global survey of lithium batteries for cars this year shows that by 2015, the production needs of lithium batteries for Chinese cars will be basically balanced. "The problem with lithium-ion batteries for Chinese cars is that there is not enough effective capacity. Luolan·beige told reporters: "China's car lithium batteries are currently too fragmented and not scalable. They are still in the initial trial stage and have not reached the stage of commercialization. "

Henan is one of the places where Chinese lithium batteries started relatively early. Since last year, Henan has invested in lithium batteries, and it has changed from more than 20 to more than 40. "The production capacity of Henan lithium batteries is indeed excessive, which is related to the blind investment of investors. Anyone who invests will have a firm belief: in another ten years, the rest is me." On the 14th, Henan was the largest. Li Middle, chairman of Henan Huanyu, one of the suppliers of lithium battery materials, told reporters on the phone.

At present, many battery factories in Henan have faced the problem of idle production capacity. "One is that capacity has been built, and the next step is that demand has not grown. Second, the battery can not be used on the car, and it is also done in vain. "Lizhongdong said.

"Cars have a demand for batteries. Now the pilot cities have grown to 25 cities, and many cars are working on new energy vehicles. Conversely, the batteries produced cannot meet the requirements of the car, so there is no output. Now there is a market for car batteries and there is no qualified product. "Dongming said.

In fact, low-level repetitive construction is the crux of lithium batteries. The capacity of various battery manufacturers is now very large, especially large enterprises with a background of state-owned enterprises, but they are all at a low level. Last year, SAIC inspected all the lithium battery plants in China and finally decided to cooperate with the US A123 because there are few batteries in the country that can meet the demand for cars.

Low yield related to equipment level

At present, the domestic automotive lithium battery industry is in the primary stage of development, and the competition is not sufficient. One of the most important criteria to examine whether a lithium battery factory has a real level of technology is whether the battery's raw materials and equipment are your standards or those of the supplier, an industry insider who has been studying the industry for years. "Many domestic companies are not raising standards themselves, but suppliers are raising standards. Equipment is the same, is the supplier to raise standards, enterprises to learn. "

It is worth noting that Chinese manufacturers of low-end batteries such as Shanzhai mobile phones are now making money, while companies that make high-end batteries such as branded laptops and cars are rarely profitable.

From the perspective of the requirements of electric vehicles, the threshold for the entry of lithium batteries for vehicles is actually very high, but many companies do not meet the standards and are also investing and performing, resulting in uneven levels and disparity in the entire automotive lithium battery industry.

In general, batteries that meet the requirements of automobiles should have a yield rate of about 60-70 %. If the yield rate can reach more than 80 %, it can be profitable, and if it reaches a yield rate of about 90 %, the gross profit can reach 40 %., At present, only a very good battery factory in China can only achieve more than 60 % of the output rate.

In fact, at present, the low output rate of domestic battery factories is related to the level of equipment. The level of equipment in most battery factories is not advanced enough. Some newly invested enterprises are currently importing equipment from Japan and South Korea. Although advanced, technology accumulation and management cannot keep up.

Take the Japanese battery factory as an example. Their maintenance personnel is involved in the development and manufacture of new equipment. The maintenance and maintenance of new equipment are in place. But our domestic enterprises introduce Japanese South Korean equipment, the maintenance of equipment is not enough, the utilization rate is not high, once there is any fault, a repair can not, the larger the investment, the scrap rate is quite high, the product rate is quite low.

In addition to the profit problem, the inequality between the battery factory and vehicle factory is also a bottleneck that hinders the development of battery companies. Specifically, at present, there is a certain trading relationship between the vehicle factory and the battery factory, but it is not close enough to promote the battery factory.

Since the new energy vehicles are in the initial stage, the understanding of batteries by domestic vehicle companies is relatively elementary. It only requires how many volts, how many amps, and how large the volume, and puts forward high requirements from the battery life, performance, and price. Let the domestic battery enterprise is beyond reach.

Not only that, many vehicles invest in batteries, and battery factories invest in cars, further alienating this relationship.

Many small battery plants now take out their own cars at the show. Battery factories do this for two purposes: one is to match the battery system with the car, and the other is to do a show. Simply assemble the car and take it to the project for funding.

At the same time, domestic vehicle companies are also keen to build batteries. Chery, a representative company of China's independent brands, is currently making batteries, materials, combinations, and controls.

"The profit margin of the whole country is not very high now, about 4 %. And the limited amount of research and development money that goes into batteries. After finishing the material, use the material to make a single battery. The single battery also has a control system. Making your own batteries from scratch is dangerous and will be a huge burden. The industry said.

In fact, Japan's experience has made a template for the relationship between the vehicle factory and the battery factory. It is a joint venture between the vehicle factory and the battery factory, such as the cooperation between Toyota and Panasonic and Sanyo.

"At present, the Chinese vehicle factory should put forward reasonable requirements for the battery factory for the level of electrical and electronic control, and the two sides should jointly improve. This is more reasonable. The industry said: "The system that is not necessarily the best component is the best system, and it should be the best matching component. "

Lithium ferrous phosphate:

The United States industrialized ten years ago

At present, there is still a lot of room for improvement in the domestic car lithium battery industry. In order to meet the industrialization of automobiles, the cost, price, safety, reliability, and service life have not yet met the requirements. Take electric buses as an example. The life requirement for batteries is now eight to ten years. It is not easy to actually meet four years of service life. "

Not only that, in the research and development of new lithium battery materials and new products, the gap between domestic companies and foreign companies is increasing.

"There are many new materials. At present, the most fashionable is lithium ferrous phosphate. The industrialization of the United States was ten years ago. Now that the domestic lithium ferrous phosphate does not meet the requirements of automobiles, there is a lot of blind investment in construction. "Dongming said. "The material of the previous generation has been chewed, and there is no real organization to develop the next generation. On the contrary, there are many materials selected abroad. Although industrialization has not been formed, there are many launches, and they are not as concentrated as in China. "

In addition to research and development, the dependence of lithium battery core materials on imports is very prominent. "Now two things are almost entirely imported, and one is the diaphragm. One is the salt in the electrolyte, the electrolyte is a lithium compound, and then it dissolves into organic solvents to form liquids, organic solvents we have, the salt we have in China, but the quality is not good. "Dongming stressed that" the high cost is on the one hand, and what is even more terrible is that supply can be interrupted at any time. " "

The authoritative lithium battery industry report shows that the key to lithium batteries is lithium iron phosphate positive electrode materials. Each electric car has about 200-300 kilograms of lithium batteries. These lithium batteries require 60 kilograms of lithium iron phosphate and an annual output of 1 million. Electric cars need 60,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate each year.

But global capacity is currently 1,500 tons, and the potential gap between supply and demand is very large, resulting in a profit margin of up to 70 % for lithium iron phosphate. In contrast, ordinary new energy vehicles have only about 20 % profit margins, power battery profit margins reach 30 % to 40 %, and battery material profit margins are the highest. Positive materials are currently the core of the development of the entire lithium battery industry chain.

Global suppliers of lithium iron phosphate include A123 in the United States, Valence, Phostech in Canada, Taiwan Changyuan Energy, Likai Power, Shangzhi Precision, and Hongyi Technology. In 2008, the global supply was only about 1,500 tons. The largest supplier was A123, which supplied 750 tons. The domestic manufacturer's supply was only about a few hundred tons. According to public statistics, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate manufacturers in the country is about 6,400 tons, but the actual mass production is far lower than the production capacity.

There is no doubt that lithium batteries for Chinese cars are still in development. According to Luolan·beige's projections, in addition to China, there will be 6-8 large-scale commercial battery plants that can support electric vehicles in the world in the next five to seven years.

"Due to the support policies of the Chinese government and a large amount of private capital such as venture capital, the integration of the Chinese car lithium battery industry will not come soon. In the future, there will be companies such as BYD and Lishen that will gradually grow. At the same time, there will be a large number of small battery factories that are not large-scale. "Luolan·beige told reporters.

According to the forecast of Henan Huanyu Chairman Lizhongdong, there are now nearly 300 lithium battery factories in the country. In two years, there may be more than 200 more. However, there may be only 20 left in the decade. About, most of them will die.

In Lizhongdong's view, history repeats itself, and the domestic battery industry has experienced three baptism. "At the beginning of the 1990s, it was a nickel-cadmium battery. In the mid-1990s, it was a nickel-metal hydride battery. At the end of the 1990s, it was a lithium battery for mobile phone batteries. There were hundreds of them on the ground, and there were only a few dozen in the end. Now there are lithium batteries for cars. It's the same. "

"The current situation of lithium batteries for Chinese cars is that the state's investment and scientific research projects are scattered like Pepper noodles, and the funds are not United. Everyone is doing the low-end, half-catty level. On the contrary, if a synergy is formed, the process can be accelerated. "Dongming finally said.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.