In 2018, the number of power battery enterprises decreased sharply, and the pace of capacity expansion slowed down

The touring research on the supply chain of 2018 gaogong lithium battery is still in hot progress. According to the research, battery enterprises generally believe that the market competition in 2018 is extremely fierce, and the enterprises are being crushed in many aspects. The gross profit and profit space of products are compressed, and the reshuffle of the industry is accelerating.

On May 21, the 11th high-tech lithium battery industry summit, an authoritative platform in the lithium battery industry, was held in shenzhen four seasons hotel (opposite the exhibition center). The event attracted over 700 senior executives from the new energy automobile industry chain, including materials, equipment, battery cells, BMS, PACK, and vehicles.

At the meeting in the afternoon, gao xiaobing, director of the lithium battery research institute (GGII), made a keynote speech on "the progress analysis of China's power battery capacity construction and product development and application in 2018", and analyzed the current development status of China's power battery industry in capacity construction and product development in detail.

Progress in China's power battery capacity construction in 2018

Gao said there were some changes in the power battery industry in 2018.

On the one hand, from the perspective of industrial development trend, the number of domestic power battery enterprises reached a peak in 2016. The main reason is that the demand growth of power battery exceeded 80% in that year, the gross profit rate of power battery products exceeded 35%, and the production capacity was seriously insufficient. And starting from the second half of 2017, the subsidies TuiPo threshold of technology and industry, new energy bus and the vehicle development lower than expected, the rising price of raw materials and downstream makers sharply interacting, such as multiple pressure, began to appear a power battery enterprises give up related business phenomenon, and this phenomenon is more obvious in 2018.

It is expected that in 2018-2019, some enterprises will encounter obstacles in the development of the power battery sector, and these major enterprises withdrawing from the power battery business may face the fate of returning to digital, switching to energy storage, exploring small power/low-speed vehicle/forklift and other fields, or even bankruptcy and liquidation.

On the other hand, the pace of capacity expansion of power battery enterprises will slow down in 2018, and the number of expansion enterprises will decrease. 2) the triangular debts of the industry drag down the capital pressure of enterprises, and the capital is insufficient; 3) reduce the gross profit of the industry and reduce the enthusiasm of enterprises for expanding production.

Among them, three forces are the main force of production expansion in 2018. One is the second and third-tier enterprises that have formed scale enterprises and achieved certain results in subdivided fields. Second, the layout of other technical routes of the enterprise; The third is the new entrants for 2017-2018.

From the existing capacity structure, the square aluminum shell is the most, followed by the cylinder, and finally the square soft shell; From 2015 to 2016, many enterprises took 18650 as the entry point and increased the capacity construction of cylindrical power battery. In terms of capacity under construction in 2018, the proportion of square aluminum shell and square soft package occupies the first two places, while the proportion of cylinder capacity under construction declines.

In terms of the regional division of new power battery production capacity, the existing power battery production capacity is mainly distributed in east China, and the new production capacity is mainly concentrated in east China, breaking the characteristic that more than 65% of digital battery enterprises and their production capacity are in south China. The direct reason for this situation is that there are many main engine plants in east China and the auto industry chain is mature. It is worth noting that in addition to capacity layout in the domestic, there are Chinese power battery enterprises layout overseas capacity.

Development and application progress of power battery products in 2018

Power battery companies face two major tasks in 2018.

The first is to improve product performance under the premise of safety performance is guaranteed, in which energy density, cycle life, quick charge performance is the current key to improve the performance. High-capacity materials, such as high-nickel ternary materials and silicon-carbon materials, are the main lifting points. Second, reduce costs, mainly from the following four aspects into; 1. Reduce the cost of battery monomer capacity by improving battery energy density, optimizing process and improving yield; 2. Force material enterprises to reduce prices, for example, the price of diaphragm Q1 in 2018 will be reduced by more than 20% on a month-on-month basis; 3. Improve production efficiency and reduce investment intensity of battery per unit capacity; 4. Reduce the size and specification of the battery to achieve the size standardization.

As the subsidy amount is directly linked to the energy density of the battery system, power battery enterprises are actively developing new high-specific energy power batteries, thus driving the demand growth for high-nickel ternary materials and silicon-carbon anode materials.

Among them, cylindrical battery takes the lead in mass production by using positive and negative electrodes with high grams of capacity (high nickel and silicon carbon), which can achieve cost reduction by relying on high capacity. However, the current trend is that square batteries tend to use monocrystalline materials and cylinders tend to use high nickel materials with secondary particles.

At present, there are a number of positive electrode material enterprises in the layout of high nickel ternary materials. It is expected that the production capacity of high nickel ternary materials will be released in the second half of the year. At present, there are few enterprises that can produce silicon carbon anode in quantity, and the output is highly concentrated.

In addition to improving the material system, battery enterprises are also actively promoting the construction of battery size standardization. The development trend of cell standardization and module standardization is obvious.

In the aspect of cell size standardization, VDA standard has become a hot spot in China. First, the VDA standard is more systematic and enforceable. Second, the demand for power batteries has changed from being driven by passenger cars to being driven by passenger cars, which require higher quality and performance stability. Third, domestic battery enterprises have been supporting foreign capital, joint ventures.

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