Spodumene is the main source of increase, and DSO is the main disturbance factor

In 2018, the global lithium resource supply increase mainly comes from lithium phosphite extraction, mainly concentrated in Tianqi Lithium Industry, Yanfeng Lithium Industry, Galaxy Resources and Australia Wodgina Ore (DSO), with a total increase of 32,000 tons of lithium carbonate (LCE, regardless of DSO).

Tianqi Lithium's lithium salt production in 2017 was 32,000 tons (announcement). According to the company's plan, it is expected to increase to 40,000 tons in 2018. In order to meet its lithium salt demand, the production of Thaleson lithium mine will increase accordingly, and due to Tian Qihe. ALB distributes lithium mines with its shareholding ratio (51:49), so it is estimated that Thaleson will increase 16,000 tons of LCE in 2018; ALB incremental spodumene is mainly used for the newly added 13,000 tons of lithium in the company's Zhiyuan lithium industry. Salt production line (According to the announcement, Weihua shares in 2018 is ALB foundry 6875-8430 tons of lithium salt products). According to the announcement, the output of MtMarion lithium concentrate from Qifeng has increased from 350,000 tons in 2017 to 450,000 tons. The production of MtCattlin lithium concentrate from Galaxy Resources has increased from 156,000 tons in 2017 to 200,000 tons, a total increase of about 16,000, tons of LCE.

Wodgina, a subsidiary of Australia's MRL, has sold diaspore ore (DSO) to China since 2017. The annual sales are expected to exceed 2 million tons, and the sales volume in 2018 is expected to exceed 4 million tons. The domestic enterprises using DSO are mainly Ruifu Lithium Industry. Its lithium oxide grade is about 1.2%, and 5-5.5% lithium concentrate can be selected. The recovery rate is about 60%. About 9 tons of 5.5% lithium concentrate can produce 1 ton. Lithium carbonate, according to this conversion, 2 million tons of raw ore can make 6,500 tons of lithium carbonate, an increase of about 6,500 tons in 2018. However, because Wodgina is a tailings, the weathering (mudging) is serious, the recovery rate of concentrate is very low, and because the quality of its products is unstable, it has not entered the downstream battery industry. Therefore, there is uncertainty in the increase of DSO. The impact of supply has yet to be verified. However, the 2017 inventory stackup will be a major factor in disrupting the supply of the lithium concentrate market. Recently, the price of lithium concentrate has been lowered or related to DSO.

Salt Lake has limited increments, focusing on mature production capacity

In 2018, the increase in lithium in salt lakes is limited. Except for the mature salt lakes in Chile and Argentina, the relatively mature domestic production capacity is mainly Lanke Lithium Industry and Qinghai Lithium Industry.

The increase of foreign salt lakes is mainly in SQM, FMC and Orocobre. The output of domestic Lanke Lithium Industry in 2017 is 0.78 million tons (announcement). In 2018, if it reaches 10,000 tons, it only considers the mature salt lake production capacity. In 2018, the increment is nearly 0.84 10,000 tons of LCE.

The bottleneck of lithium extraction in the domestic salt lakes is mainly the brine water resources and the impurity removal process (mainly boron, magnesium, etc.). At present, the lithium salt products are mainly sold to middlemen for reprocessing; the current cutting process of Lanke Lithium is still improving. Qinghai Lithium has mastered the patent of electrodialysis membrane separation technology, but has no halogen water resources and is a lithium carbonate processing enterprise.

Lithium mica is subject to resource quality and tailings treatment, and it is difficult to release

Lithium mica resources are limited, Yichun 414 lithium mine can support up to 20,000 tons of lithium carbonate, plus other small mines, Yichun lithium mica will not exceed 50,000 tons of lithium. Lithium mica mine has complex geological conditions, unstable resource quality, low recovery rate (not exceeding 80%), and it is difficult to guarantee customers' grade requirements of more than 3.5%. In addition, the treatment of tailings is also a problem. At present, it can be sold to surrounding cement plants because of the small amount, but it cannot be fully digested if the expansion is increased.

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