How about the economy of lithium power recovery?

Lithium power recycling is economical, and battery manufacturers 'self-dismantling or third-party dismantling mode is currently the mainstream. Since 2015, cobalt, nickel and lithium/lithium hydroxide prices will receive a modest boost as the new energy car industry erupts and battery materials change in the direction of high-nickel ternary materials. This makes the recycling of used lithium-ion batteries more economical.

The average annual mileage of private cars in China is about 16,000 kilometers. It is conservatively estimated that under the conditions of private cars, the service life of power batteries of pure electric/plug-in cars is about 4 to 6 years; For buses, taxis and other models, due to their long average mileage and frequent charging, the life of their power batteries is 2 to 3 years. The metal content of different types of power batteries is different. According to our prediction of the ratio of electric vehicles and the lithium capacity of bicycles, the waste reporting of future power lithium-ion batteries in China is predicted. It is expected that by 2018, the number of new power cells that will be scrapped will reach 11.8 GWh, corresponding to recoverable metals: 18,000 tons of nickel, 0.3 tons of cobalt, 11,200 tons of manganese, and 0.34 million tons of lithium. It is estimated that by 2023, the number of new power cells that will be scrapped will reach 10.1 Gw, and the corresponding recyclable metals are: 119,000 tons of nickel, 23,000 tons of cobalt, 71,000 tons of manganese, and 20,000 tons of lithium.

We estimate that prices of metals other than cobalt will fall in different degrees in the coming years, and calculate that by 2018, the market size of recoverable valuable metals will reach 1.4 billion yuan in nickel, 8.7 billion yuan in cobalt, and 2.6 billion yuan in lithium. By 2023, the market value of recoverable valuable metals could reach 8.4 billion yuan in nickel, 7.3 billion yuan in cobalt, 850 million yuan in manganese and 14.6 billion yuan in lithium. By establishing an economic evaluation model, the following mathematical models can be used to indicate the benefits of input costs and recovery materials in the power cell recovery process:

Bpro = Ctoal-Cdeposiation-Cus-Ctax

Bpro indicates the profit of recycling used power cells; Ctotal represents the total return on recycling of used power cells; Cdeposation represents the depreciation cost of used power battery equipment; Cuse indicates the cost of using the used power cell recovery process; Ctax represents the tax revenue of used power battery recycling companies. The cost of using used power battery recovery and recycling process mainly includes the following items(1) raw material cost; (2) Cost of supporting materials; (3) Fuel power cost; (4) equipment maintenance costs; (5) Environmental treatment costs; (6) Labor costs.

From the perspective of gross profit rate, feasibility and sustainability, we believe that the model of closed-loop recycling by battery manufacturers and the model of purchasing used batteries from battery manufacturers by third-party professional dismantling institutions are the mainstream dynamic lithium power recovery models. And in the case of comprehensive recovery of lithium electricity, it has a good economy. Assumptions:(1) Current metal prices($215,000 per ton of cobalt, $77,700 per ton of nickel, $11,000 per ton of manganese, $700,000 per ton of lithium, $12,600 per ton of aluminium, $0.2 million per ton of iron) and without taking into account other recovery gains; (2) Consider the use of various types of power cells(70 % of lithium iron phosphate, 7 % of lithium manganese acid, and 23 % of three yuan) for the comprehensive recovery of lithium ion batteries; (3) The same conclusion and analysis of other costs other than raw materials: Third party professional organizations have the highest gross profit rate of purchasing used lithium batteries and dismantling and processing them, reaching 60 %; The second is the form of recycling processing in the industry alliance, with a gross profit rate of 45 %. However, among these two methods, the former(third party: purchased in small workshops) has safety and environmental protection issues, and at present, small workshops have not yet realized the huge value of the lithium power recycling industry, and the acquisition price is low, so this method is not sustainable; The latter(industry alliances), which are currently less feasible owing to the imperfect regulatory and legal environment, will be one of the trends in the future. :: The other three approaches are more feasible and sustainable, but the model gross margins of direct recycling by battery manufacturers and purchase of used batteries from manufacturers by third-party professional dismantling agencies are higher, so we believe that these two approaches will constitute the current mainstream recycling model. The recovery value of ternary battery material is higher than that of other power cells. For example, considering the recovery of ternary power cells alone, The recycling model for battery manufacturers and the third-party dismantling model for purchasing used batteries from battery manufacturers have high investment value(in 2016, the gross profit rate was estimated to reach 55 % and 48 %, respectively)

We believe that the power lithium power recycling industry will gradually achieve standardization and scale in the next five years. The recycling model of the industry alliance is expected to be formed in the middle and late stages of industrial development. Due to its scale effect, it will have a higher gross profit margin. In addition, the original producer recycling model and the third-party dismantling model of purchasing used batteries from producers still have a strong economy.

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