Skip NCM622 direct 811 power battery cost decreased by 6%-8%

In 2017, NCM111 and NCM523 occupied the mainstream of ternary materials, and gradually transitioned to NCM622. However, this year, under various comprehensive considerations, power battery applications have a tendency to skip NCM 622 and adopt NCM811 directly.

A senior executive of a large electrolyte company told Gaogong Lithium: "From the point of view of our contact, the proportion of high-nickel battery electrolytes last year was not too high, but this year there will be a substantial increase (or more matching NCM811). It is expected to increase by about 30%. The high-nickel ternary is the earliest used in cylindrical batteries, and the amount is also the most."

In addition to the electrolyte company's perception of the downstream application of NCM811 trend, the positive material company as a product provider also revealed the relevant application of NCM811.

In February, Dangsheng Technology said that the company's NCM811 products have begun mass production, mainly for domestic power battery customers. Earlier news showed that Ningbo Jinhe, Tianjin Bamo, Shanshan Energy, and Ningbo Rongbai Lithium Battery also made good progress.

In terms of power battery, the research from Guotai Junan shows that the application of NCM811 in cylindrical power battery is basically mature. Domestic such as BAK, lishen, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Far East Foster, etc. are all on the scale, and the mass production progress exceeds expectations.

Pushing NCM811 to accelerate mass production applications is a huge pressure on high cobalt prices and cost reduction.

On the one hand, since the second half of 2016, the price of metallic cobalt has continued to rise, from 200,000 yuan / ton to 600,000 yuan / ton. By 2018, cobalt prices have not shown signs of decline. Even the world's largest cobalt mine, Congo, is pursuing a tax increase policy. Coupled with the expansion of demand for ternary materials, public opinion is more inclined to further increase in cobalt prices.

On the other hand, the implementation of the subsidy declining system, the willingness to reduce costs of new energy vehicles is strong, and the price of power batteries has been declining. Battery manufacturers have significant pressure to cut prices, and demand for cost reduction is urgent. In the face of the 2018 subsidy new policy, only high-energy density batteries can receive high subsidies, and battery companies adopt high-nickel cathodes is an inevitable trend.

It is a good way to use NCM811 or "the best of both worlds."

According to data from Guotai Junan, the market mature 18650 power battery uses 532 cathode material the battery capacity is 2.5AH, and the 811 cathode material, the capacity can reach 2.75AH. The cost of using 811 units of wh cathode material is 0.39 yuan, while the cost per unit cost of 532 is 0.414 yuan, and the cost is reduced by 6%.

On the whole, the weight of the cathode material using 811 single cells decreased by 9%, and the cost of the corresponding separator, electrolyte, and copper foil was also reduced. Based on the conservative principle, after the 810 is adopted, the unit cost of the unit is reduced by 7%. After considering the PACK, the cost of the integrated unit wh is about 8%.

It is worth mentioning that the large-scale application of 811 is also a big plus for cathode materials companies. At present, the price of 532 is 230,000 yuan, and the price of 811 is 260,000 yuan. The current market situation assumes that the processing cost of 532 is 0.5 million yuan/ton, and the processing cost of 811 is 10,000 yuan/ton, then the gross profit margin of 532 is 15 %, while the gross profit margin of 811 can reach 27%, nearly doubled.

Obviously, the large-scale application of NCM811 is a win-win situation for car companies, power battery companies and cathode materials companies. Combined with market demand, it is expected that 2018 will be the first year of mass production of NCM811.

While expecting the NCM811's eye-catching performance, some of the problems behind it cannot be ignored.

From the application side, the current NCM811 mass production is mainly concentrated in cylindrical batteries, and the mass production of consumer batteries is faster than the power battery. The power battery application NCM811 is technically difficult and needs to overcome safety issues. Vehicle manufacturers have higher threshold requirements and more complicated long-term certification procedures for this type of power battery supplier.

From the material end point of view, NCM811 material production process is difficult, and there are not many material companies that can mature mass production. Among them, Dangsheng Technology currently produces a high-nickel production line with an annual output of 4,000 tons, which can produce NCM811, NCA, or NCM622. The NCM811/NCA project with an annual output of 18,000 tons in the construction of Jiangsu Dangsheng Phase III project is in progress.

Prior to the Shanshan Energy official micro-message, the company's Ningxia Shizuishan base Sanyuan 622/811 turnkey project with an annual output of 7,200 tons of shared production line construction was smooth, the end of December 2017 trial production, March 2018 production.

At the annual meeting of senior workers held in early January, Ning Shengxian, general manager of Ningbo Rongbai Lithium Battery R&D Center, revealed that NCM811 has started mass production in the second half of 2016, and the output in December 2017 reached 500 tons/month. The latest plan is that in the third quarter of 2018, the monthly production capacity of NCM811 will reach 1,000 tons/month; in 2019, it will be 2000-3000 tons/month.

Overall, NCM811 is expected to increase significantly, but there is still uncertainty as to whether the supply of materials is stable and whether it can fully meet the downstream demand and whether the power battery application can meet expectations.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.