Price as low as $3-4 ,000 per ton? The price of lithium iron phosphate is once again staggering

Recently, people in the industry broke out that the price of lithium iron phosphate materials in the market is close to the cost line of 3-4 million yuan per ton, which is once again shocking.

This year, demand for lithium iron phosphate material has shrunk sharply, and prices have fallen again and again. Recently, the industry broke out that the market for lithium iron phosphate material is selling at a price close to the cost line of 3-4 million yuan per ton, which once again surprised people.

There are different opinions about why it is sold at such a low price. According to the industry, some companies may be in the capital needs to deal with inventory, so sell at low prices; Some are "residual products" with high impurity content such as corner materials, cleaning materials, and non-conforming products that appear in the production process, and are used at low prices for areas where battery performance is not required for communication energy storage and outdoor lamps.

"This kind of residue can not be said to be no. It should be an individual phenomenon. A person familiar with the matter said that when the industry's technology was immature in the early years, non-conforming products would be produced. After the industry's size was increased in 2017, non-conforming products would also appear during the commissioning of equipment. These nonconforming products are used for "special" applications that do not require high battery performance on the market and are used as waste.

In addition, when the price of lithium carbonate in raw materials is relatively high, some of the lithium iron phosphate residues are also sold at a low price for recycling "lithium". "But since the price of lithium carbonate has been falling this year, it should be gone from the second half of the year. " The person added.

Overall, the price of lithium iron phosphate materials of 3-4 ,000 yuan/ton is an individual phenomenon and does not reflect the mainstream price of the industry. The prevailing price of lithium iron phosphate materials is around 60,000 yuan per ton, down about 35 % from the 9-9 .5 million yuan per ton price earlier this year, according to research data from the Institute of Li-electric Research(GGII).

The consensus in the industry is that after the adjustment of the new energy vehicle subsidy policy, the low demand for lithium iron phosphate power batteries with insufficient energy density is the main cause of the serious excess capacity of lithium iron phosphate materials and the continuous decline in prices.

As a result, a large number of lithium iron phosphate material companies 'net revenue in the first half of the year fell sharply, and some people who were short of funds were even forced to stop production and were on the verge of bankruptcy. "There are no orders in the downstream, and there are orders that are not paid. In addition, the domestic economic environment has been declining. The banks have tightened their money, the loan amount has decreased or even refused to lend, and the days of double-sided attack are very sad. "A high-level complaint for lithium iron phosphate material.

Can the start of energy storage this year and the impulse of commercial vehicle power batteries in the second half of the year save lithium iron phosphate materials?

The optimists believe that the state encourages the use of energy storage on the grid side and the user side. Since the beginning of this year, several large grid side energy storage demonstration operation projects in Zhenjiang, Henan Pinggao, Hunan Changsha and other places have been tendered, which boosted market confidence. Some battery companies are actively deploying and believe that the future will bring a new wave of application opportunities to lithium iron phosphate materials.

At the same time, the second half of the year, especially the fourth quarter, is the traditional "impulse" stage of new energy vehicles. Generally, there will be "rush to load" before the subsidy policy is lowered, and the amount of lithium iron phosphate batteries and materials ordered will be significantly increased. A medium-sized lithium iron phosphate company said it had seen a 40-50 per cent increase in orders since July, feeling signs of a rebound.

"Next year, subsidies will recede further. If the ternary material is still high, the price effectiveness of lithium iron phosphate will be prominent. Perhaps power battery companies will return to lithium iron phosphate. Next year should be better than this year. "This is the good hope of optimists.

However, there are also many pessimists who are very cautious.

"At the moment, the grid side storage is still small, with most projects being only a few tens of megawatts and too few beyond 100 megawatts. One industry insider believes that the larger area of energy storage is the communication energy storage, using some B/C batteries, Woterma batteries sold at low prices, and decommissioned power batteries, and future opportunities are more likely to retire power batteries.

In terms of power batteries, the market did indeed pick up in the second half of the year. It is not surprising that the revenue of lithium iron phosphate materials companies increased by 40-50 %, because the "base" of revenue indicators in the first half of the year was too low or even insufficient. Objectively, next year commercial vehicles lithium iron phosphate battery usage can increase, or unknown.

As for the passenger car, which has the largest growth rate, the only domestic lithium iron phosphate power battery that can be used in passenger cars is Guoxuan Hi-Tech, BYD, Ningde, etc., and these are either self-produced or supplied. Business is extremely limited, and there is basically no opportunity for second-line lithium iron phosphate materials companies. "The boss played with the boss, the second child played with the second child, the third child did not have to play" is the industry consensus.

In an era of no subsidies, high-security, low-cost lithium-phosphate batteries may have a chance to bounce back, but how many companies can survive these two years?

According to the survey data of the Institute of Advanced Research and Development of Lithium Ion (GGII), the top companies in the lithium iron phosphate material list include BYD, BTR, Hunan Shenghua, Anda Technology, Peking University First, Strand, Defang Nano, Chongqing Terry, Hefei Guoxuan, Yantai Zhuoneng and so on. The market share of these 10 companies accounts for about 85%, and the market concentration is very high. Under the general trend of “strong and strong”, the process of eliminating lithium iron phosphate materials has accelerated, comparable to the power battery industry.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.