Electric two - wheeled, tricycle lithium electricity market will be the new explosion point?

Will electric two-wheelers and tricycles be a good way out?

"Double squeeze profit decline", "structural overcapacity", "hidden rules in the supply chain of automobile enterprises", every enterprise in the lithium battery industry is not unfamiliar with the sensitive vocabulary of the domestic power lithium battery industry indicates the depth of reshuffle.

According to GGII, in the next three to five years, more than 90% of domestic lithium battery enterprises will be merged, reorganized or bankrupt, and the number of truly able to enter the vehicle supply system will not exceed 20, and the capacity will be highly concentrated in the hands of the top few.

The deterioration of the competitive environment in the main battlefield has forced many lithium electric enterprises to start to look for new opportunities in other subdivided fields. According to multiple interviews of high technology lithium electric enterprises, many lithium electric enterprises take the broad market of electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers as the key target of the layout in the next stage.

"What we're thinking about here is the replacement of 10 billion lead acid batteries, but it's not a completely new idea." "Said a lithium battery practitioner who declined to be named.

As early as in 2014, was ushered in the domestic electric two rounds, tricycles to replace lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries, at that time, the price is very close to, the domestic many fancy lead-acid alternative market lithium electricity companies show layout ideas, but as the subsequent state of lithium battery materials, specifications of the leading adjustment, the price gap opened again.

With the loss of competitive advantage in the price of lithium electricity for electric two-wheelers and tricycles, some enterprises have to some extent put aside or abandoned their businesses in this field. "" but with the adjustment of national policies, market cultivation and the cultivation of consumer habits in the past two years, new opportunities have emerged in the field of electric two-wheelers and tricycles." " Added the person.

Based on the situation of most lithium electric enterprises with plans in this field, there are three main incentives for them to launch the market layout of electric two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles:

Is a broad and stable market prospects can be expected. Both domestic lead-acid replacement and foreign export, electric two-wheel and three-wheel markets have shown a strong growth potential, and the current profit of electric two-wheel and three-wheel is stable, maintaining a good cash collection performance of cash or monthly statement 30 days.

It is environmental protection policy hasten strict, electric bicycle policy wind direction adjustment. Whether it is to charge high environmental taxes to lead-acid enterprises, or to make a clear new national standard for electric bicycles in early 2018, such as the weight of electric vehicles, battery specifications, etc., all provide a more comfortable competitive environment for domestic lithium electric enterprises to expand in this field.

Consumer end user training preliminary shape. In the context of lithium battery price reduction in recent years, the price of a single group of lithium batteries has been reduced by nearly 50% compared with the past. At the same time, the portability, long service life and other advantages of lithium battery have been recognized by consumers, and the products of electric two-wheeled and three-wheeled vehicles with lithium battery are becoming the market demand in the first and second-tier cities in China.

A senior executive of a domestic lithium battery enterprise stressed: "actually, the expensive part of lithium battery is mainly reflected in the material link, but according to the law of market price change, the price of lithium battery material will return to rationality in the future, which also provides space for further price adjustment and competitiveness improvement of lithium battery.

Vibrant domestic and international markets

At home, speaking of electric two-wheelers and tricycles, it is necessary to mention the two power supply "indigenous people" in this field -- lead-acid giant tianneng and super power. From the beginning of the market, lead-acid batteries with mature technology and low price always occupied the position of the most core power type, which has not been completely changed until now.

The data disclosed by tianneng and chaowei makes a more concrete interpretation of the broad extent of this market.

Data show that the current domestic electric bicycle ownership of about 200 million, the annual output of 30 million, the annual output of electric tricycles for 15 million, the ownership of 50 million.

As an independent business segment, tianneng achieved a sales revenue of 21.736 billion yuan of electric bicycles and tricycles in 2017, up 26.83% year on year, accounting for 80.7% of the total revenue. The revenue of chaowei electric bicycle battery business reached 18.1 billion yuan, accounting for 73.42% of the total revenue.

The above data may continue to grow in the future. Relevant institutions predict that by 2025, the market demand for electric bicycles and electric tricycles in China will reach 60 billion yuan, of which the ratio between electric bicycles and electric tricycles is about 3:2 and that between new cars and replacement vehicles is about 2:8.

In sharp contrast to the domestic electric two - wheel, tricycle field is still weak lithium battery application. According to GGII data, the penetration rate of lithium batteries in the field of two-wheelers and tricycles was only 10% in 2016, and only 6.4 million sets of lithium batteries for electric bicycles were shipped in China in 2017.

In addition to the replacement of lead acid in China, lithium batteries for electric two-wheelers and tricycles in foreign countries also show great market potential. Typical are Europe, which has fallen to Chinese manufacturers, and India, which is on the rise.

In Europe, about 2m e-bikes are bought by consumers each year, according to the European bicycle manufacturers' association (EBMA), and the market is expected to continue to expand as products diversify. And China's e-bikes have become such a phenomenon in the country that many local manufacturers are running out of business.

China exported more than 430,000 e-bikes to the European Union in 2016, up 40 percent from 2015, and the figure may have jumped to 800,000 in 2017, according to the data.

With the hot sales of the above products, the domestic lithium battery manufacturers represented by the constant power supply benefited greatly. According to the information on the official website of xingheng power supply co., ltd. in 2016, the company sold 1.95 million sets of lithium batteries in Europe, taking the first place. By the end of 2017, the company had nearly 2.4 million end users in Europe.

In India, near China, the emergence of electric tricycles, an important means of transportation, has also provided important opportunities for domestic power battery manufacturers.

In April 2018, India's ride-hailing giant Ola announced plans to launch 10,000 electric tricycles within a year, a year after it launched its first multi-mode electric tricycle pilot program in India.

The new "electric mobility" pilot program, which may involve various state government agencies in India, will probably lead to a wave of promotion of electric tricycles in India.

The favorable market environment under the policy adjustment

Since the beginning of 2018, the implementation of environmental protection tax and the introduction of new national standards for electric bicycles have greatly restricted the application of lead-acid batteries in the field of electric bicycles from the perspectives of lead-acid enterprises and market application.

First is in the increasingly serious ecological environment situation, in order to improve the social environmental awareness and compliance, strengthen the responsibility of the enterprise pollution abatement, road of the past six years in domestic legislation, after twice after the review of environmental protection tax law eventually in January 1, 2018 formally implemented, will be open to making atmospheric pollutants, water pollution, solid waste and noise pollution enterprise high green taxes.

However, waste lead-acid batteries, which are known as "time bombs" for environmental pollution, are still in lack of effective means of recycling lead-acid batteries around the world. At present, they will be the focus of environmental protection departments, and lead-acid battery enterprises will also become heavy payers of environmental protection taxes.

According to the calculation formula of "tax payable on pollutants = pollution equivalent amount * applicable tax amount", large lead-acid battery manufacturers will increase a large amount of tax expenditure, which will increase the operating pressure of enterprises to some extent.

Almost simultaneously with the implementation of the environmental protection tax, the ministry of industry and information technology and the standards commission of the People's Republic of China published the national standards for the safety technical specifications of electric bicycles for approval. The new standard emphasizes the right of way rules for electric bicycles, stipulating that the maximum speed of electric bicycles shall not exceed 25km/h, the vehicle mass (including battery) 55kg, and the nominal voltage of battery 48V.

New technical specifications, most of the domestic meet the new energy vehicle power use standard lithium battery manufacturers are not a problem, but for lead-acid battery manufacturers, but means higher technology, market requirements.

A distributor of arma electric vehicles in shenzhen told gaogong lithium power that the new national standard requires the overall quality of electric vehicles not to exceed 55kg, and many electric models with lead-acid batteries will be unable to hit the road due to excessive weight, but lithium batteries can rely on higher energy density to maintain a lighter weight. In general, the weight of lithium battery of the same specification is only one-third of that of lead-acid battery, which can better meet the requirements of the new national standard.

"Lead-acid and lithium batteries are now almost equally popular for electric cars," the dealer said. "but in the long run, there will be more lithium batteries in the future."

Multiple performance advantages to balance the price gap

It has to be admitted that even though the price has been greatly reduced, lithium battery is still at a price disadvantage in the face of lead-acid battery. But considering the performance, consumption experience, recycling and other comprehensive factors of lithium battery products, lithium battery for electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers will be more cost-effective than lead-acid battery products.

A lithium power plant business group we calculate the bill: common 4812 the market in the current electric two-wheelers, for example, in support of the same specification range of battery products, lithium-ion batteries for lead-acid batteries for 1.5-2 times, but the service life from the point of view, the life of the lithium battery is lead-acid battery 2-3 times, consider the cost of replacement battery will produce, two types of cells can achieve basic expenses.

But in actual use, the consumption experience of lithium battery is more superior. "When it comes to recharging, lithium batteries have the obvious advantage of being light, whether it's in the office or at home.

In shenzhen last year bought a lithium battery electric two-wheelers as ms Yang to work instead of walking tool, said: "the price, choose the lithium battery will be more expensive than lead-acid battery cars around 200, but the service life of the lead-acid battery is only about 1 year, lithium battery can be used 3 years or so, so, buy lithium battery electric cars more cost-effective."

In addition, when soft package and cylindrical lithium battery are made into a small battery package, more design elements can be incorporated into the shape of the battery package. When it is applied to the two-wheeled electric vehicle, it is easier to win the favor of young consumers.

"In addition to the flexibility in the process of use, lithium batteries used in electric two-wheelers and tricycles are more orderly than lead-acid batteries in the recycling process." Industry insiders believe that due to the low recycling threshold, most of the current waste lead batteries end up in illegal small workshops for simple dismantling, can bring general benefits but the harm is very far-reaching.

Due to the technical difficulties in lithium battery recycling, a situation in which the recycling is mainly led by the third-party recycling enterprises, automobile enterprises, power battery enterprises and material enterprises has formed in China. "To let more professional people be responsible for recycling through professional means can not only avoid the confusion of lithium battery recycling market, but also help develop more economic benefits of used lithium batteries. The person added.

Lithium and lead acid

"" the idea of completely replacing lead acid batteries for electric two-wheelers and tricycles is unrealistic." " Another lithium - electric company executives bluntly.

Although in recent years' efforts, the performance improvement of lithium battery enables it to compete with lead-acid battery in the electric two-wheel and tricycle market, lead-acid enterprises are not sitting still, and the powerful deposits they have accumulated in the market for nearly 20 years cannot be surpassed overnight by lithium battery enterprises.

First, lead-acid enterprises have a mature and large marketing network. Since the rise of electric two-wheeled vehicles in China in 2000, the trace of lead-acid battery has been following closely, rooted in the market for nearly 20 years, the giant lead-acid enterprises have established a mature and stable marketing network nationwide.

Super power said in 2017 that it has about 300,000 lead battery sales terminals nationwide.

Second, there is still room for price compression of lead-acid batteries, which means that the price advantage of lead-acid batteries will continue for a long time. Although the market for lead-acid batteries has matured and margins have been squeezed, the industry has suffered a brutal price war for years.

Not long ago, the lead-acid industry opened a new round of "price war". The latest survey data shows that the current price of lead battery for 48V12Ah electric bicycle has dropped from 390 yuan in 2017 to 340 yuan in early 2018. The lead battery of 48V20Ah dropped from 600 yuan in 2017 to 540 yuan at the beginning of 2018. Now it has dropped below 480 yuan, a drop of 20%.

Third, lead-acid market in third - and fourth-tier cities with unshakable market position. Although in the first and second cities, consumers are open to lithium batteries due to their consumption concepts and road rights policies, in the third and fourth tier cities and vast rural areas, price is still the dominant factor for consumers to choose electric two-wheeled vehicles and tricycles.

According to the data disclosed by chaoway, e-bikes and tricycles are becoming important vehicles for daily use in China's third - and fourth-tier cities and the vast rural areas, as well as an important market for it to focus on.

Fourth, new technologies to improve the performance of lead-acid batteries have emerged. In order to enhance product competitiveness, many new technologies have been developed in lead-acid battery field in recent years. Among them, the new technology around the lead-acid energy ratio is particularly eye-catching, one of the more famous technology is called lead-acid "super battery".

In other words, the parallel use of supercapacitors and lead-acid batteries has evolved to the stage of "internal union", and the advantages of high specific power and long life of double-layer capacitors have been integrated into lead-acid batteries. While maintaining the advantages of "external union" to increase power and extend battery life, the circuit can be simplified, specific energy can be improved, and the total cost can be reduced.

It is claimed that the specific energy of lead-acid batteries integrated with various new technologies can be increased to 60-80wh/kg, and the power can reach 600-700w.

Fifth, lead-acid battery recovery has formed a relatively complete system. Based on the previous national sales network, lead-acid battery enterprises have natural advantages in battery recycling. The recycling rate of single-group lead batteries through regular channels can reach 80%, up to 98%.

In fact, in order to create a benign industrial cycle, giants in the fields of tianeng, chaowei, camel stock and nandu power supply have taken the lead in strengthening battery recycling and waste battery disposal, and increased the layout of recycled lead production capacity:

Previously, super power announced the use of 300,000 lead battery sales terminals to improve lead recycling channels; Camel stock relies on more than 1,000 contracted dealers and more than 50,000 retailers nationwide to set up a nationwide recycling network. Tianneng has raised the total recycling capacity of used batteries in zhejiang and henan recycling and processing bases to 400,000 tons per year.

"The future market for electric two-wheelers and three-wheelers should be a scenario in which lithium battery goes up gradually and lead acid goes down gradually. This development process is irreversible, but lithium battery and lead acid will coexist for a long time." A lithium - ion practitioner judged.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.