Discuss the changing market of power battery

The market for power batteries is changing rapidly and various commercial means are emerging one after another. Large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises merger and reorganization. After a new round of shuffle, can the industry usher in a new round of rapid development?

Recently, "battery king" wang chuanfu was very depressed.

In the first quarter of 2017, the ningde times (CATL) took 25.8 percent of the market with 328,000 kWh of power battery supply, knocking byd, which saw a year-on-year decline of 63.9 percent, off the top spot.

At the same time, affected by the decline in sales of new energy vehicles in the first quarter, byd was obviously affected, sales of new energy passenger cars fell to 8,719, down nearly 50% year-on-year.

The news that vertical integration will be broken up and the power-cell division broken up is making waves. From closed to open, almost become the only choice for byd.

"From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, wang basically kept seeing one core supplier per week." "On the one hand, we are bringing in external suppliers. On the other hand, we are cutting and merging business units, selling and shutting down internal supporting enterprises," said one supplier executive, who declined to be named.

That means that once the news is confirmed, China's most profitable private entrepreneur will have to dismantle more than two decades of vertical integration and rebuild byd's supply chain.

"If byd opens up the market for power batteries and works with vehicle manufacturers, then according to industry rules, the two sides need to meet a year in advance." This means that the partner car companies need to inform byd of their product positioning, model design, price, output, strategy and other plans in advance. But this is not realistic, after all, as car companies, we are all competitive relations, most car companies are very cautious when choosing suppliers. Industry insiders said.

You sing and I come on.

On May 4, the anti-monopoly bureau of the ministry of commerce released the public notice of the new joint venture case of Shanghai automobile group co., LTD and ningde new energy technology co., LTD.

According to public information, saic will, through its wholly owned subsidiary - Shanghai automotive group investment management co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as "saic"), and ningde era of new energy technology co., LTD. (hereinafter referred to as the "age of ningde) will set up a new two joint venture companies, respectively, saic motor power battery co., LTD., with saic age power battery systems co., LTD.

Among them, the shareholding ratio of saic and ningde times in saic is 49:51 and 51:49 in saic times. Saic will be mainly engaged in the development of lithium ion battery (cell), while saic will be mainly engaged in the development of power battery pack, BMS and other application specific application system.

Is a domestic automobile production volume ranked the first, one is the second, the leading power battery loading quantity is different from byd self-marketing, also different from the Beijing new energy procurement assembled, the saic and combining the ningde era, not only have the cooperation on the level of capital, more complementary in technical exchange, has pioneered the development of China's new energy cars and new pattern.

Byd and ningde era "one minute and one minute", a reflection of the current power battery industry competition. Whether you split me or you split me, the essence is the self-fission under the law of the commercial jungle.

In 2017, power battery manufacturers entered a difficult time, the pressure of survival increased sharply, suffering from the squeeze from both ends of the upstream and downstream. On the one hand, the rising price of raw materials for batteries, on the other hand, the reduction of subsidies for new energy vehicles.

Price advantage is no longer, product orders sharply reduced, cost reduction pressure behind, power battery enterprises will be how to continue? Large enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises merger and reorganization. After a new round of shuffle, can the industry usher in a new round of rapid development?

Two head pressure

Entering 2017, the new energy vehicle market suddenly "cold". Subsidy slope, raw material prices and downstream car enterprises pressure conduction, making the power battery enterprises "double pressure".

At the beginning of the year, the new energy vehicle subsidies to start the slope mechanism, the cost pressure directly affected the power battery.

"Only 85,000 vehicles met the first round of subsidy standards, which is indeed beyond my expectation, indicating that the national review of new energy vehicles has greatly exceeded my expectation." National passenger car information joint session secretary general cui dongshu said.

From 2013 to 2015, the new energy vehicle industry entered the stage of inclusive subsidies, and the high subsidies drove the explosive growth of the industry with the compound growth rate of more than three times. In 2015, under the mechanism of high subsidies and downhill slope, the new energy vehicles even triggered the robbery and fraud subsidy events.

In fact, the subsidy policy of new energy bus is much higher than that of other models, and even much higher than the cost of new energy bus production. The existence of arbitrage space encourages car companies to cheat and seek compensation.

In April 2015, the ministry of finance, the ministry of science and technology, the ministry of industry and information technology and the national development and reform commission issued the "notice on financial support policies for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in 2016-2020", which clearly defined the mechanism of subsidy downhill slope, with the subsidy standard dropping by 20% in 2017-2018 and 40% in 2019-2020. The halo of "high subsidy" and "high growth" has become the history of the new energy vehicle market.

In September 2016, the ministry of industry and information technology issued the interim measures for parallel management of enterprise average fuel consumption and new energy vehicle credits (draft for comments). The point system will replace the state subsidy policy to realize the financial support for the new energy automobile industry.

"These policies have an impact on the development of enterprises, but what we need to do is through what kind of form to resolve. After the subsidy decreases, the product price decreases, but due to the high output growth, technological progress and cost reduction, the current gross margin is still high. Economies of scale and overall corporate profits remain positive. "It's called 'trading volume for price,'" li le (not his real name) told energy.

"We are making some technological breakthroughs to bring costs down and try to work with the downward slope of the state subsidy policy. "The market doesn't require you to catch up, but we have to make a contribution. A power battery enterprise personnel who did not want to be named told the energy reporter.

In addition to the downward pressure on subsidies, high raw material prices have also made the situation worse for power battery companies. From 2016 to 2017, the price of battery anode materials, electrolytes, copper foil and other raw materials soared, industry insiders said.

Data from the lithium battery research institute (GGII) show that as of February 2017, the price of 4.35v lithium cobalt oxide as a positive electrode material has risen to 260,000 yuan/ton, up to 40,000 yuan/ton year on year. In addition, the price of nickel, cobalt, manganese and other resources also increased.

Anode material enterprises directly transmit the price hike pressure of raw materials to downstream battery customers, which leads to the direct increase of the cost of lithium cobalt oxide battery and ternary material battery.

"Affected by the decline of subsidies, the gross margin of the whole vehicle segment in the new energy automobile industry chain is relatively certain at present, and it will gradually squeeze the profit space of the upstream industry chain in the future. However, copper foil and cobalt supply is in short supply and cannot be alleviated in the short term, and the price reduction is not expected to be large. In contrast, the upstream industry chains such as battery, electrolyte and diaphragm industries will bear some price reduction pressure in the future. Wang lei (not his real name), an analyst at gd power, spoke to energy.

"Recently, the price of cathode raw materials gradually rose, the cost of the entire cell is greatly affected. However, bick has its own design advantages and will avoid the risk of rising raw material prices through the innovation of raw materials. Shenzhen bak battery power battery co., LTD. Research institute batteries technology minister high foam to admitted in an interview with reporters "energy" and "ternary material on the market at present is given priority to with '532', namely 50% nickel, 20% 30% of manganese, cobalt, and bick use '811' system, relatively speaking, the price of the highest cobalt material accounted for more than the minimum, allows us to control the cost of production as a whole, also let us get a lot of bargaining space."

In addition, for the new energy vehicle enterprises, a large part of the cost comes from the power battery. If they want to reduce the cost, they will certainly want the power battery enterprises to reduce the cost of power battery. With the steep decline of subsidies, cost reduction will become the biggest pressure on power battery enterprises. The price requirement of vehicle manufacturers for battery manufacturers will be reduced by 35%-40%.

Faced with this situation, a power battery executive said: "the subsidy slope to the whole car companies face a lot of pressure. However, if the vehicle enterprises will be the pressure completely transferred to the power battery enterprises, which is very unfair to the power battery enterprises.

The battle for technology

In the main battlefield of power battery technology, lithium ternary, lithium iron phosphate, lithium titanate is continuing to perform a battery "three kingdoms kill".

At present, nickel-metal hydride battery and lithium ion battery are the main power batteries for vehicles in China. With the development of technology, lithium ion power battery has become the mainstream of the market, according to the cathode material can be divided into ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganese acid and other types.

At present, ternary lithium and iron phosphate lithium batteries are widely used in domestic mainstream bus power batteries. The former was "temporarily suspended" last year due to safety concerns. However, although the lithium iron phosphate battery still occupies a dominant position, the disadvantages brought by graphite materials as negative electrode, such as low initial charge and discharge efficiency caused by easy formation of SEI film and large irreversible capacity, have not been cured.

Meanwhile, the recent high-profile acquisition of yinlong by dong mingzhu, chairman of gree electric appliances, has brought the not-so-new technology of lithium titanate batteries back into the public eye.

"I borrowed money to invest in yinlong. Some people called me crazy. "Because I think the new energy industry is an industry that China and the world will run on the starting line in the future, and it is also an excellent opportunity for China to transform its manufacturing industry, so I am willing to make a bet and I will invest in it," dong explained.

As a newcomer, dong mingzhu has several reasons for supporting lithium titanate: long service life, ability to adapt to high cold temperature, good safety, and promising application in the energy storage market.

However, large-scale commercial use of lithium titanate has been limited due to obvious shortcomings. The first is high temperature gas. Lithium titanate as the cathode material, and prone to interaction between the electrolyte and cyclic reaction is put in charge of gas evolution produces in the process, so the ordinary lithium titanate battery easily bilge gas, cause the batteries bulge, performance will also fell sharply, greatly reduce the theory of lithium titanate battery cycle life, is restricting the lithium titanate battery one of the most important reason for the large scale application.

The second is low energy density, that is, not much stored electricity. Compared with a carbon-negative battery, the same size and weight can only save half of the battery life, and only half of the battery life. Therefore, the volume and weight of lithium titanate batteries are large, which means that the passenger car capacity is bound to decline.

"There have always been debates about material systems, capacity, size, shape, and power battery technology. Different capacity, different size, will bring different performance, this is a hundred schools of thought contend for a topic. One industry analyst, who asked not to be named, said, "the bottom line is that lithium power comes from two main sources: safety and cost."

On March 1, the ministry of industry and information technology of the People's Republic of China and four other ministries and commissions jointly released the action plan for promoting the development of automobile power battery industry, which drew a blueprint for the future development of power battery.

Among them, the performance improvement of power battery products has been stipulated, which requires that "by 2020, the specific energy of new lithium-ion power battery monomers exceeds 300 watt-hours/kg; System than energy aim for 260 w/kg, costs have fallen to below 1 yuan/watt hour, using the environment - 30 ℃ to 55 ℃, can have 3 c charging capacity. By 2025, breakthroughs will be made in the new system's power battery technology, with a specific energy of 500 watt-hours per kilogram per unit.

"Energy" reporter on the Chinese chemical and physical power industry association power battery application branch of more than 58 battery enterprises were found after the statistics: the most enterprises involved in the ternary battery, this is because of the subsidy policy guidance and the high-density characteristics of the ternary battery itself can better meet the needs of the new energy passenger car market.

At the same time, new energy passenger cars are still dominated by lithium iron phosphate. According to the announcement of models in 2016, the proportion has reached more than 60%, and lithium manganate still accounts for about 15%, while the supporting model of sanyuan is extremely small.

It is worth noting that, under the strong support of the policy, the power battery industry is getting more and more attention, many related industry enterprises aggressively enter, and the capital outside the industry is also eager to try.

Have the role of the vane of the capital market brokerage companies sit mountain tiger, have to the capital market to promote their optimistic investment target.

In early May 2016, guangfa securities issued a research report on the new energy vehicle industry, judging that lithium battery technology, especially the ternary battery technology, will become the mainstream of the power battery industry in a certain period in the future. On May 27, galaxy securities released a research report on the fuel cell industry to promote the development of hydrogen fuel cells. On June 1, industrial securities issued the industry research report, and guangfa securities to support three battery.

The core technologies of enterprises in related industries are stripped and displayed in front of the public layer by layer. Combined with other factors after that, the stock prices of relevant companies in the capital market fluctuate obviously, which eventually leads to the reordering of leading enterprises.

"Heated discussions will undoubtedly expose and solve the industry problems better than insidious discussions, and generate more sparks of wisdom than closed-door discussions, thus truly stimulating the overall technological progress and upgrading of the industry. This is the meaning and value of discussion and debate. Industry comments.

Foreign companies a spoiler

April 27, ningde times founder zeng yuqun in ningde times under the "struggle of the CATL people" public number, released to the public with the "typhoon, pigs really fly? "Internal mass email, the email on the domestic power battery industry worrying current situation and the future of the in-depth analysis, triggered the whole industry hot discussion.

"We think of ourselves as the lithium bulls," the article said. So many people relax, slack off, began to sit and wait for customers to come to us to battery.

While we are sleeping on the policy hotbed, our competitors are playing for the life and death. Admittedly, even if the power battery has been sitting on the "first chair", zeng yuqun's crisis awareness is still alert.

In fact, with panasonic, samsung SDI, LG and other foreign companies, the domestic unprecedented hot lithium battery market is forming a new pattern of "three kingdoms".

Since 2015, many enterprises have made it clear that power battery is the future development direction, and the phenomenon of increasing investment, expanding product lines and building new factories has been constantly emerging.

Power battery giants such as panasonic, samsung SDI and LG chem have entered China to build power battery plants. Among them, samsung SDI and LG chemical's power battery plants have been completed.

Foreign-funded enterprises have great advantages in battery consistency, stability, cycle life and other aspects, so they are very attractive to downstream oems. Take LG chem as an example. It is not only the supplier of auto giants such as ford, Volkswagen, audi and nissan, but also the domestic auto manufacturers such as Great Wall motor, chang 'an automobile, chery automobile and saic motor.

"Energy density is related to battery life. Take panasonic as an example. At present, the energy density of its ternary battery has reached 300Wh/kg. The energy density of the ternary battery made of 633 and 811 anode materials has reached 330Wh/kg. In comparison, the energy density of ternary batteries in China can reach 130Wh/kg, which is not easy. Analysis points out.

Data show: April 27, dalian panasonic motor power battery project announced the official production, the main product is prismatic lithium battery power. At the same time, panasonic will build a power battery plant in suzhou together with a domestic PACK enterprise called jetstar new energy, which is expected to start production in the second half of 2017 with an annual capacity of about 100 million batteries.

"At present, the lithium battery industry in China is faced with problems of obvious low concentration, lack of technology accumulation and innovation, resulting in serious resource dispersion and disorderly market competition." Zhang yu, secretary general of power battery application branch of China chemical and physical power industry association, admitted that "the lithium battery industry in China has always been large but not strong, unable to optimize resource allocation, form a standardized and orderly market pattern, and unable to form a joint force when competing with the outside world.

In addition, media reports said that Bosch group, the world's largest auto parts supplier, is also interested in building a lithium battery plant in China to produce power batteries for the Chinese market. With the increase of battery bases in the European market and the gradual emergence of tesla effect, the "China, Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States" top five competition may be formed in the future.

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With the promotion of supply-side reform policies such as battery whitelist and battery policy guidance of the four ministries, "differentiation" has become the main theme of industry changes in 2017.

In 2016, the shipments of domestic lithium power battery enterprises totaled up to 30.5GWh, with a year-on-year growth of 79.4%, while byd, CATL, watma and guoxuan high-tech co., ltd. ranked among the top four in China, accounting for 62.1%, which was an improvement over 54.9% in 2015.

According to the notice of action plan for promoting the development of automobile power battery industry, by 2020, the total production capacity of power lithium battery will exceed 100Gwh, forming a leading enterprise with a production and sales scale of more than 40Gwh. It once again indicates that the future policy ideas will guide the improvement of market concentration, accelerate the elimination of backward production capacity, and encourage leading enterprises to become bigger, stronger and better.

"The development of power batteries is a process from short supply to oversupply. The survival of the fittest will be realized in the survival of the fittest in the market. "In the next three to five years, two-thirds of the industry will be forced out because of the fierce competition," said a company official.

Relevant analysis shows that in the field of power batteries, China is no longer short of core technology, whether it is cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate, ternary, high electric manganese and other materials are in a dominant position. But the equipment manufacture, the engineering ability aspect still has the big disparity. Under such circumstances, domestic enterprises can catch up in the short term through industrialization and marketization. Perhaps it is to catch up, in order to occupy an active position in the market, the main domestic battery companies have stepped up the layout of power batteries.

"Due to the accumulation of capital and technology, large battery enterprises cater to the battery quality requirements of passenger car enterprises, and passenger car enterprises are willing to pay brand premium for high-quality batteries, so as to realize the binding between leading passenger car enterprises and large battery enterprises, and the share of passenger car batteries will be concentrated in large battery enterprises. Wang lei said.

The integration and merger of lithium battery industry driven by the tide of electric cars will directly promote the big change in the industry structure. The situation of Evergrande and everstrong will emerge in the next few years.

Behind the industry leader a prosperous, but not every business is booming, orders again and again. As the power market gradually warming, the lithium battery industry enterprise differentiation began to worsen, capacity utilization, a consortium of some power battery enterprises appear insufficient capacity, began to expand capacity, and many small and medium-sized enterprises is faced with low-end product positioning, price competitive, high accounts receivable, lack of capacity utilization and a series of problems.

According to incomplete statistics, in the past three years, there have been more than 70 lithium power and related enterprises in sichuan, shandong, guangdong, henan and other places have gone bankrupt or closed down. In 20151 alone, the number of power lithium battery enterprises in China decreased from 84 to 40, and the number of enterprises decreased by 50%. The process of industry self-elimination has begun.

The "ten thousand vehicles in ten cities" project launched in 2009 led to the first round of investment boom in power batteries. The project by the ministry of science and technology, ministry of finance, the national development and reform commission, ministry of industry and information technology in jointly launched in January of 2009, the main content is that by providing fiscal subsidies, plans to use three years time, development of 10 cities each year, each city to launch 1000 new energy vehicles to carry out the demonstration run, involved in the large and medium-sized city bus, taxi, public, municipal, postal and other fields. In this wave of new energy vehicle advocacy wave, including dong mingzhu strong acquisition of zhuhai yinlong.

In 2012, due to the lack of effective orders and markets, many power battery industrial parks and bases in China were shut down or half-full. The battery factory in shenzhen, which mainly makes low-end products, has been closed down by nearly half.

The biggest wave of failures followed in 2014. More than 30 lithium ion battery enterprises have gone bankrupt, including haiba, jinmingyang, hanlinda, bolixun, shineng, jiangsu litian, etc.

Hua maoze, chairman of the chengdu jiahao group, moved from real estate to investing in new energy, but the deyang brixen battery he built ended with his arrest in late September 2014. Qingdao haiba energy group, which was once keen on racing horses to encircle land, also fell on the road of crazy expansion due to the break of capital chain.

"The bankruptcy of haiba battery marks the impossibility of the great leap forward expansion of China's power battery industry, which has gone beyond the investment-for-market model." A senior analyst.

At that time, the power battery project could only lose money when the technology was not mature, the policy was not standardized and the market was not mature. However, after the uproar, a field of chicken feathers.

The survival of a number of small battery manufacturers has become difficult, before the proliferation of 'small, messy, poor' power battery enterprises, the market competition is gradually ending.

"At present, the industry reshuffle trend is more and more obvious. By around 2020, the top five power battery enterprises in China may occupy 70% of the market share of power battery." In fact, the top five companies accounted for half of the entire power battery market in terms of capacity in 2016, which is already a clear trend. In five years, concentration will be higher, and that's the shuffle.

The latest data shows: lithium battery production in the first quarter of 2017 was 13.2GWh, down 3% year-on-year and 26.3% month-on-month. As recommended catalogue review and subsidy policy adjustment, many small and medium-sized battery enterprises in the first two months of the operating rate is not high, low production and sales data.

"This is a game that can't be stopped," said Mr Cui. "the battery industry for electric cars has entered a stage of rapid and healthy development.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.