Analysis of China's lithium battery energy storage development trend and market layout

The National Development and Reform Commission recently issued the "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Energy Storage Technology and Industrial Development", proposing to promote related work in two phases in the next 10 years. Among them, the implementation of energy storage during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will be transition from R&D demonstration to commercialization. During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the commercialization began to shift to large-scale development. The introduction of the guidance of the energy storage industry indicates that China's energy storage industry is moving from demonstration projects to commercial applications.

China's energy storage development trend and characteristics

In recent years, China's energy storage has shown a good momentum of diversified development: rapid development of pumped storage; compressed air energy storage, flywheel energy storage, superconducting energy storage and super capacitors, lead storage batteries, lithium ion batteries, sodium sulfur batteries, flow batteries The energy storage technology research and development application has accelerated; the heat storage, cold storage and hydrogen storage technologies have also made some progress.

Lithium-ion battery energy storage is an important component of electrochemical energy storage. At present, large-capacity energy storage technologies mainly include mechanical energy storage (pumped energy storage, compressed air, flywheel energy storage, etc.), electromagnetic energy storage (superconducting magnetic energy storage, super capacitors, etc.), and electrochemical energy storage (lead storage batteries, Flow battery, lithium ion battery, etc.). Among them, pumped water storage is the most mature and economical large-capacity energy storage technology, with the advantages of large scale, long life and low operating costs. In the energy storage projects operated in China, the cumulative installed capacity of pumped storage capacity accounted for 99.5%. However, the pumped water storage must have the proper geographical conditions for the construction of the upper and lower reservoirs, which are limited by the topographic conditions and have a long construction period.

Lithium-ion battery energy storage is the main form of future development. Electrochemical energy storage technology has the advantages of short response time, high energy density, flexibility and low maintenance cost, and is the most important form of energy storage other than pumped energy storage. According to forecasts, the cumulative installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage in China will increase steadily. In 2016, the cumulative installed capacity will be 255MW. By 2020, the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage will exceed 2000MW, and the compound annual growth rate will be close to 70% from 2016 to 2020. Lithium-ion battery energy storage accounts for 66% of the installed capacity of electrochemical energy storage, and is the most important form of electrochemical energy storage.

Lithium battery energy storage cost overall reduction technology is maturing

Lithium-ion batteries are currently the most common energy storage technology on the market, and are widely used in a variety of personal electronic products, mobile devices and even car batteries for electric vehicles. Usually, the lithium battery we refer to refers to a lithium-ion battery, which is generally classified into a storage lithium battery and a power lithium battery according to the use. The energy storage lithium battery is used for photovoltaic or UPS, the internal resistance is relatively large, the charging and discharging speed is slow, generally 0.5-1C, the power battery is generally used in electric vehicles, the internal resistance is small, the charging and discharging speed is fast, generally can reach 3- 5C, the price is about 1.5 times more expensive than the energy storage battery.

Energy density, power density, safety performance, charging time, and high temperature and low temperature resistance are the five indicators for evaluating the performance of lithium batteries. At present, China has achieved preliminary standards in the last four points of lithium battery technology, but further improvement in energy density is required progress. On March 1, 2017, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Finance jointly issued the Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive power battery Industry. The Program requires major breakthroughs in key materials and components for power batteries. By 2020, key materials and components such as positive and negative electrodes, diaphragms and electrolytes will reach the international first-class level, and the upstream industrial chain will achieve balanced and coordinated development, forming an innovative backbone enterprise with core competitiveness. The program's specific energy requirements for batteries are bound to trigger a new wave of high-energy density materials.

At present, the hot lithium titanate material is also worthy of attention. It can replace graphite as a negative electrode material. Although the energy density is not high, lithium titanate allows the battery to achieve high rate charge and discharge, and has excellent safety performance and long cycle life. It is reported that the fourth-generation high-energy-density lithium titanate battery developed by Yinlong has reduced the cost by 40% and the energy density by 60% compared with the third generation. The industry is optimistic that the future lithium titanate battery may form a three-pronged situation with the ternary lithium battery and lithium iron phosphate battery.

Although the high cost of lithium-ion batteries is a serious challenge for the development of the industry, many companies have been working to improve the price/performance ratio of lithium-ion batteries. According to the analysis of the price of lithium batteries by Energy Trend analyst Duff, the price of lithium batteries has a slight increase in the first, second and third quarters of 2017, but overall, in recent years, with the market for lithium batteries Demand continues to expand, and the mass production of lithium batteries is decreasing year by year. The current price is sufficient for commercial development and widespread use.

In addition, after the power lithium battery is attenuated to less than 80% of the initial capacity, it can be used in the energy storage field in a stepwise manner, further reducing the cost of the energy storage lithium battery.

Future development prospects and corporate layout

The development of the energy storage industry will continue the prosperity of lithium battery equipment. The rapid development of the new energy automobile industry has led to rapid progress in lithium-ion battery technology. The cost of lithium batteries has gradually declined, and the energy density is also in the rising channel. With the further maturity of the business model of battery technology and energy storage industry, the energy storage industry will usher in rapid development and it is expected to continue the boom cycle of lithium battery equipment.

With the decline in the cost of lithium batteries and the increase in energy density, as well as the further maturity of the energy storage industry business model, the energy storage industry will usher in rapid development and is expected to continue the boom cycle of lithium battery equipment.

Kelu Electronics is expected to develop in the field of energy storage

The lithium iron phosphate battery currently developed by Kelu Electronics has a cycle life of 7000 cycles (60% of battery capacity) in the environment of DOD 90% and 0.3C, and the cost of electricity is about 0.4 Yuan/kWh. The technical advantage has reached the leading level in the industry. On October 29, 2016, it announced that it will increase its capital and invest in Jiangxi Keneng energy storage battery System Co., Ltd., accounting for 49%. The first phase of the subsidiary plans to build a 400 million AH (Anshi) fully automatic high performance lithium ion energy storage battery production line. The 10,000-ton lithium iron phosphate project and the corresponding separator and pole piece manufacturing plants are expected to be put into operation this year, and battery costs are expected to decline further.

BYD energy storage products sell well in Europe and America

At present, the market promotion and development of BYD's energy storage products is relatively mature, and it has certain influence in the European and American markets. At present, the company's PJM FM market share of products accounts for more than 50%, and the total supply capacity reaches 132MW. In addition, the company has 20MW and 40MWh power stations in Pingshan. The main application scenario is to cut the peaks and fill the valley.

The commercialization mode of Nandu Power Storage System has developed rapidly and landed

Nandu Power's "investment + operation" energy storage system commercialization model has rapidly developed and landed. The cumulative contracted capacity is nearly 1000MWh, of which the capacity of the project under construction is 150MWh, the capacity of the project to be built is 150MWh, the capacity of the project to be put into operation is nearly 30MWh, and the income from energy storage business is 170 million Yuan in 2016. At present, the company's energy storage profit model is based on peaking and filling the valley. The profit of the peak and valley peaks is expected to reach 0.25~0.3 Yuan. The large-scale project landing will have a positive impact on the company's performance.

Nandu International invests in a wholly-owned subsidiary, Narada Germany GmbH, which is mainly used to build a frequency-modulated energy storage power station with a total capacity of 50MW to participate in the German FM market. Germany currently has a market capacity of more than 800 MW, and if it expands to the entire European interconnected grid, its capacity exceeds 3,000 MW. The German FM market participates in the service by means of weekly bidding. The average revenue in the past 8 years is 3,000 Euro/MW/week. The good market environment has prompted the company to invest overseas. In the process, the company will realize the deepening participation and deep understanding of the FM energy storage market, while laying a solid foundation for the company's global layout of the future energy storage market.

Ruineng Century made 3 battery energy storage FM projects

At present, the core components of the entire FM system provided by Ruineng Century include container battery system, energy storage inverter, thermal power storage combined frequency modulation control system and real-time monitoring system. The company's Beijing Shijingshan Battery Energy Storage and Frequency Modulation 2MW project, which was completed in September 2013, is the world's first thermal power storage frequency modulation project. At present, the company has made three FM projects in the North China region with a total FM capacity of 20MW.

From the perspective of the long-term development of the market, as the cost of lithium batteries continues to decline, the range of lithium battery energy storage routes is wide, and with the continuous promotion of China's policies, the future energy storage market has the most potential for development.

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