How far is fuel cell cars from being truly industrialized?

In the first four months of this year, China produced and sold 232,000 new energy vehicles and 225,000 vehicles respectively, an increase of 142.4 % and 149.2 % over the same period last year, according to the latest data from the China Automobile Industry Association.

In this situation, the automotive industry began to generally touch "electricity", the pure electric vehicle market has been "nowhere to go." Many companies have started to invest in the development of hydrogen fuel vehicles. Many places have also listed the fuel cell automotive industry as a development focus.

So how far is fuel cell cars from being truly industrialized?

At least 10 years less mature than an electric car

At the Beijing International Motor Show held recently, Ouhui's 8.5-meter hydrogen fuel cell bus attracted a lot of attention. According to reports, the car added hydrogen for 10 minutes, the mileage can reach 500 kilometers, has received orders for 100 vehicles, which is also the world's largest commercial order for fuel cell vehicles.

"With the joint promotion of governments, scientific research institutions and companies around the world, fuel cell technology has made great progress in recent years. Dongyang, executive vice president of the China Automobile Industry Association, said the study of fuel-cell cars had been under way for nearly 30 years, starting with a 1991 patent application by Ballard, a Canadian company. In January 2015, Toyota Motor Co.'s Mirai brand fuel cell car was officially put into production, marking the basic determination of the fuel cell vehicle's technical route and the beginning of the industrialization phase.

Although China's fuel cell industry started later than Japan, it has made great progress in recent years. After more than 20 years of research and development and demonstration, China has initially mastered the core technologies of fuel cell electric reactors and their key materials, power systems, vehicle integration and hydrogen energy infrastructure, and has basically established a fuel cell automotive power system technology platform with independent intellectual property rights. A number of companies engaged in the research and development of fuel cells and key parts and components have been nurtured, and a research and development system covering hydrogen production, hydrogen storage, hydrogen transport, hydrogen safety and fuel cell technology has been initially formed, with the participation of key enterprises, mainly university research institutes. The production capacity of the 100-car power system and the entire vehicle was realized. By the end of 2017, China's commercial orders for fuel cell vehicles had exceeded 1,000, with more than 200 hydrogen fuel cell vehicles being used for demonstration operations, and 8 hydrogen refueling stations were built nationwide.

However, this group operates far less than pure electric vehicles. "Although fuel cells have great advantages such as higher efficiency of electric reactors than internal combustion engines and no emission pollution at all, due to the uncertainty of hydrogen storage methods, the large size of electric reactors, the low efficiency, and the use of precious metals in proton exchange membranes. Technical problems have not been solved, The true industrialization of fuel cell cars still faces more difficulties. "Dongyang believes that the current situation of fuel cell vehicles in China is similar to that of pure electric vehicles in 2009, and it also belongs to the large-scale R&D promotion phase of" ten cities and thousands of vehicles. " In terms of industrial maturity, fuel cell vehicles are 10 years or more away from electric vehicles powered by batteries.

Industrial breakthrough must cross "three hurdles"

Passenger cars best reflect the technical level of a country's automotive industry. Data show that the current global fuel cell passenger car market is dominated by Japanese Toyota, Honda and South Korea Hyundai. Among them, Toyota's Mirai accounted for 88 % of global fuel cell car sales with 2,039 registrations. In contrast, the fuel cell passenger car landing products officially launched in China are only 950 items of SAIC Rongwei, and it is not officially for the private consumer market.

Why is it difficult to promote hydrogen fuel cell vehicles in China? "First, the life of a fuel cell is too short. "The new research hydrogen energy technology company CTO, IEC international standard convener Qizhigang said for example, SAIC Rongwei 950 fuel cell car operation time is about 3,000 hours, there is still a big gap from the actual application of 5,000 hours.

"More importantly, the life of hydrogen fuel cells in actual operation will be greatly reduced due to the inability to control the environment, temperature, and humidity. Chenquanshi, a professor at the Department of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University, said that even if the life span reaches 5,000 hours, in terms of operating 15 hours a day, a bus can only operate for less than a year and can not support the commercialization of products.

Second, the hydrogen supply chain has not yet been formed. According to experts, about the preparation of hydrogen, there are currently different technical routes such as industrial by-product hydrogen production and hydrogen production using photovoltaic, wind energy and other fragmented energy; With regard to hydrogen transport, there are also different routes such as high-pressure, liquefied and natural gas pipelines, which require economic and technical comparisons and business models.

Yibaolian, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering and a researcher at the Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said that at present, there are few hydrogen storage and transportation enterprises in China, and the hydrogen supply system is not stable.

Again, high production and use costs also constrain promotion. "At present, the world's leading technology Toyota is also promoting the 'post money', its real price is much higher than pure electric vehicles, not to mention the fuel car." Chen Quanshi said, "Toy Toyota sold thousands of fuel cell vehicles last year. 80% is used for leasing business, and its cost performance is far from meeting the marketing requirements."

The reporter visited and found that the current price of a fuel cell vehicle in China is mostly more than one million yuan. “The reason why the price stays high is mainly because the scale is too small,” said Lu Wei, dean of the Beijing Branch of the Shanghai Electric Apparatus Research Institute.

At the same time, the cost of fuel cell vehicles is also high. "In order to ensure the safety of hydrogen transportation, China stipulates that pressure vessels must be strong and that the pressure for transporting hydrogen must not be too large. "Heguangli, manager of the Hydrogen Energy Research and Development Department of the Beijing Institute of Low-Carbon Clean Energy, said that the low pressure storage capacity is small." Overall, the cost of hydrogen storage and transportation is about 9 yuan per cubic meter, far exceeding the cost of hydrogen production. "

In addition, the investment in the construction of hydrogen stations is also relatively large. Yi Baolian told reporters that excluding land, the construction cost of a daily plus capacity of 200 kilograms of hydrogen station is at least 15 million yuan, which is much higher than that of gas stations and charging stations, which has formed a higher threshold for many companies.

Who wins is the market choice.

In the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in China, there has always been a dispute over the three technical routes of plug-in, pure electricity and fuel cell. Among them, because the energy density of hydrogen is two to three times that of oil, and its customer experience in the hydrogenation process is the same as that of traditional energy vehicles, it takes only 2 minutes to 3 minutes to add hydrogen at a time, and the range can reach 500 kilometers. To 700 kilometers, for a long time, Fuel cell vehicles are considered to be the ultimate solution to the National new energy vehicle technology route.

However, compared with pure electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles are not ideal for promotion in China and the world. "At the beginning of this century, when the energy density of power batteries did not meet the demand for cars, experts mostly believed that fuel cell cars were the ultimate phase of electric cars. This is understandable. However, in recent years, the power battery technology has made great progress, and this conclusion should be re-evaluated. In Mr Dongyang's view, power battery electric vehicles are more suitable for urban, short-haul and passenger vehicles, while fuel cell vehicles are more suitable for long-distance, heavy-duty and commercial vehicles. "The two are complementary relationships, not substitutes. As for the future, because technology is still developing, infrastructure is being built, and business models are constantly innovating, there are still huge variables. " said Dongyang.

Hydrogen fuel cell technology needs to accelerate development, which is in line with the needs of China's energy revolution. "But hydrogen and electricity are both energy carriers and there is no 'ultimate'." Ouyang Minggao, a member of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and a professor at Tsinghua University, also disagreed with "hydrogen is the ultimate energy source" and "hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are the ultimate green car" The argument. He believes that small cars have lower energy requirements, and lithium batteries may play a greater role. "So in the case of new energy vehicles, fuel cells and pure electricity will coexist in the future."

"Pure electric power, hydrogen fuel and hybrid power have their own advantages. The Chinese market is so large that three technology routes are needed today and tomorrow. At the 10th Blue Book Forum held on May 12, Yinchengliang, director of the Smart Network Electric Vehicle Innovation Center of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said that as for who can win in the future, "it depends on technological progress and market choices."

According to China's relevant industrial plans, by 2030, China will have to operate 1 million fuel cell vehicles. By then, China is poised to become the world's largest market for fuel-cell vehicles. How to quicken the industrialization step of fuel cell car? "This requires the intervention of the main forces of industries such as automobile vehicles and major energy companies. The competent industrial departments take the lead and select the provincial and provincial development departments with better conditions. "Dongyang believes that only the rapid formation of 10,000 grades of production can open up the industrial chain.

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