Lithium resource utilization, resource allocation, consumption structure, supply status and future trends

If we say that from the general trend of the mining cycle, somewhat pessimistic tone, that lithium is no doubt to the low resources circle to add a bright color. Under the background of the sluggish mineral resources industry, the momentum of lithium mines has not diminished, and it has become a star species that has received much attention.

This is largely due to the growing prosperity of the new energy vehicle market, making lithium resources as an upstream material a “toon”. Then, what is the current production and supply situation of lithium mine resources? How to solve the shortage of lithium in domestic demand? The first phase of the "Strategic New Mineral Resources Lecture", the China National Geological Survey of the Ministry of Natural Resources, Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences, Global Mineral Resources Strategy Jianwu Li, director of the Research Center and the Research Center for Emerging Minerals, shared the status, issues and recommendations of China's lithium resource supply system.

Use of lithium and distribution of lithium resources

Lithium is a strategic metal that is of great significance to the national economy andspecial. It is widely used in high-tech new technologies and military industries. The application of lithium in the energy field mainly includes the use of lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, energy storage systems, andspecial fusion materials, known as the 21st century energy metal.

Since lithium has a small atomic weight, a battery using lithium as an anode has a high energy density. In addition, lithium batteries are also popular because of their light weight, small size, long life, good performance and no pollution.

In recent years, lithium has been the fastest growing application in the battery field, and the battery field has become the world's largest consumer of lithium. From 2007 to 2017, the proportion of the field increased from 20% to 46%. In 2017, the global lithium consumption was 237,600 tons, of which global lithium consumption increased by 6% every year from 2005 to 2015. From 2015 to 2017, due to the rapid increase of global new energy vehicle production, the average annual growth rate was 21%. China is the most important. Pull factor. In 2017, China's lithium consumption was 124,700 tons, of which from 2007 to 2014, with the rapid development of 3C products, China's lithium consumption increased from 22,800 tons to 65,800 tons, an average annual increase of 16%; 2014~2017 was mainly affected by Driven by the new energy automobile industry, China's lithium consumption increased from 65,800 tons to 124,700 tons, an average annual increase of 24%.

Lithium consumption structure

With the global demand for clean energy, the strategic position of lithium is prominent. Lithium has been listed as a strategic resource security guarantee by industrialized countries with shortage of lithium resources. It is a common strategic choice to seek diversified supply channels.

The lithium resources currently being developed and utilized in the world are divided into two types: salt lake brine type and hard rock type, and the ratio of the two is about 7:3. The global lithium resources are abundant, but they are unevenly distributed, mainly in South America, Asia and Oceania, and are highly concentrated in Chile, China, Argentina and Australia.

Chile and Argentina are dominated by salt lake brines, Australia is dominated by hard rock types, and China has two resources. China's brine-type lithium mines account for about 67% of the total, mainly distributed in Qinghai and Tibet, spodumene ore and lithium mica ore, and other hard rock-type lithium mines account for about 33%. The spodumene ore is concentrated in Sichuan and Xinjiang. Lithium mica mine is mainly in Jiangxi.

Current Status and Future Trends of Lithium Resources Supply in China

From the perspective of the whole industry chain, China's lithium resource production capacity is weak, but lithium salt processing capacity is strong. In 2017, the global production of lithium ore (including hard rock lithium and lithium brine) totaled 228,900 tons (equivalent to lithium carbonate equivalent, the same below). Among them, Australia produced 99,500 tons, accounting for 43%, ranking first; Chile, 75,100 tons, accounting for 33%, ranking second; Argentina, 29,300 tons, accounting for 13%; 89%.

China's lithium resources are mainly salt lakes, but limited to various aspects of technology and cost. At present, lithium is mainly extracted from ore, and almost all lithium ore required depends on imports. The exploration of lithium resources in western Sichuan has achieved important results, but due to various conditions, it will take time to put into production. The Yichun lithium deposit in Jiangxi Province has a low lithium grade and a high cost of lithium extraction, but by-products such as niobium and tantalum have benefited a lot, and the comprehensive development prospect is good. The salt lake lithium mine is mainly developed in Qinghai, and the production capacity in the region is gradually being built and released. At present, Chaerhan Salt Lake is the mine with the highest output, but the resource quality of this area is poor, the ratio of magnesium to lithium is high, and the development cost is high.

At the same time, China's lithium salt production has grown rapidly and is the world's largest lithium salt producer. In 2017, the global lithium salt production was 235,400 tons, concentrated in three countries: China's 123,400 tons, accounting for 52% of the world, ranking first; Chile's 78,000 tons, accounting for 33%, ranking second; Argentina's 34,000 tons, It accounts for 15% and ranks third, accounting for nearly 100% of the global total. The global lithium salt industry is highly concentrated, and the top five companies in 2017 account for about 60% of the world's total output. The top three companies are Chile SQM, Albemarle and China Tianqi Lithium, which account for about 44% of the world's total; US FMC and China's Ganfeng Lithium rank fourth and fifth. .

Due to the limited supply capacity of domestic lithium resources in China in the future, the gap will exist for a long time. According to jianwu Li 's analysis, if the market price remains around 60,000 Yuan/ton, China's lithium resources mine capacity will reach 170,000 tons in 2025, 230,000 tons in 2030 and 250,000 tons in 2035. At that time, the shortfall will be 432,000 tons, 754,000 tons and 966,000 tons respectively, and the external dependence will be above 70% in the long run.

Problems and Countermeasures of China's Lithium Resource Supply System

China's current supply of salt lake lithium and hard rock lithium has great problems. China's salt lake lithium resources are poor, the Qinghai salt lake has a high magnesium to lithium ratio, low grade and high development cost; Chaerhan Salt Lake is 60 times lower than the South American Atacama salt lake, and the ratio of magnesium to lithium is 78 times to 310 times higher. The quality of the main lithium-containing salt lakes in Tibet is good, but it is affected by factors such as high altitude and transportation conditions. The scale of development is limited. Among the hard rock lithium resources in China, the spodumene ore is mainly distributed in the western part of Sichuan, and the resources are of good quality. However, the altitude is high, the infrastructure is poor, the national problems are complex, and the development is greatly restricted. The lithium mica mine is mainly distributed in the Yichun area of Jiangxi, but the lithium mica mineral composition is more complicated than the spodumene, and the lithium extraction cost is higher.

At the same time, China's lithium resource supply costs are relatively high. At present, the lithium resource supply structure, 60% cost is higher than 50,000 Yuan / ton, the remaining 40% is 30,000 Yuan / ton, while the cost of South American salt lake is only 20,000 Yuan / ton.

One of the reasons for the above phenomenon is that China's overseas investment in lithium resources is too concentrated in Australia. In 2017, more than 80% of China's imported lithium resources came from hard rock lithium and most of them were Chinese companies investing in Australia. Since the cost of hard rock lithium is more than double that of salt lake lithium, its ability to withstand the risk of market price fluctuations is poor, and enterprise development faces greater challenges.

In response to the above questions, Jianwu Li suggested:

A. It is necessary to strengthen the development of new lithium resources, such as the deep fissure pore brine lithium mine in the Tertiary anticline structure area of the Qaidam Basin in Qinghai. It is a new type of lithium resource with great potential, high grade, low magnesium to lithium ratio, quality. It is better than the currently developed salt lake brine lithium resource, which is one of the important directions for future lithium exploration and development.

B. China should adopt various measures to effectively improve the supply capacity of local lithium resources. First, we must increase investment in technology research and development, encourage enterprises and scientific research institutions to carry out technical research, solve the technical problems of lithium extraction from high magnesium and lithium salt, reduce development costs, and improve the supply capacity of lithium in domestic salt lakes. Second, we must actively coordinate and improve the social environment for the development of hard rock type lithium mines in western Sichuan, and form production capacity as soon as possible.

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