"5•31 New Deal" alleviates the contradiction and outstanding problems in the photovoltaic industry. The photovoltaic industry is bound to enter a new stage.

Following the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018," the most stringent PV new policy in this history has continued to ferment. Industry experts said that the policy will have an impact on the photovoltaic industry in the short term, but the photovoltaic industry will gradually adapt to the market rhythm, and there is no suspense in the policy.

On May 31, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the Energy Bureau jointly issued the "Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (referred to as "5·31 New Deal"),known as the most stringent PV New Deal in history.

"'5·31 New Deal' will have a greater impact on PV companies. It is expected that the installed capacity will be reduced by half in 2018." Cao Yu, a new energy analyst for electrical equipment of Cinda Securities Co., Ltd., told Journal of Chinese Academy of Sciences reporter.

On June 3, the joint ventures of 11 photovoltaic companies, such as Tongwei Group and Sunshine Power, sent a letter to Xinhua News Agency. It is recommended to give a certain buffer period for photovoltaic projects that have been legally approved for construction, and appeal to relevant government departments to listen to the opinions of the industry and improve them. The new policy content protects the healthy development of the photovoltaic industry. Subsequently, the Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences attempted to contact a well-known photovoltaic company and was rejected on the grounds of “temporary inconvenience”.

The event continued to ferment. On June 6, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a number of industry leaders to meet with the National Energy Administration to reflect and report on the impact of the New Deal on the industry and make recommendations. On June 11, the National Energy Administration held a press conference to interpret the issues related to the “5·31 New Deal”: the New Deal is not to control the development of the industry, and the subsidies that the policy requires will continue to be distributed.

“The policy is definitely good at the strategic level. It will have an impact on the photovoltaic industry in the short term, but the photovoltaic industry will gradually adapt to the market rhythm. There is no suspense in the policy.” Wang Yigong, deputy secretary general of China Distributed Energy Industry Alliance Journal of the Chinese Academy of Sciences said.

Why is the most stringent new policy?

At the end of last year, the state has introduced a new PV power grid price policy. After 5 months, why is the benchmark price of electricity and distributed photovoltaic power generation subsidies for ordinary photovoltaic power plants lowered again?

The explanation given by the National Energy Administration is that the subsidy gap continues to expand, the problem of consumption cannot be ignored, and the overcapacity has hidden dangers. "Frankly speaking, before the subsidy is too much, the effect did not meet expectations, since the subsidy can not last long, it is better to cancel earlier." Cao Yu said.

The National Energy Administration believes that the introduction of the “5·31 New Deal” is not only an important measure to implement the supply-side structural reforms, but also to promote the high-quality development of the economy. It is also an important contradiction and outstanding problem that alleviates the current subsidies and subsidies for the photovoltaic industry. Important measures, this is an inevitable requirement for the development of the photovoltaic industry to enter a new stage. The introduction of the “5·31 New Deal” is very necessary and plays an important role in achieving the sustainable and healthy development of the photovoltaic industry.

Qian Pingfan, director and researcher of the Industrial Economics Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said in an interview with the media that according to the “13th Five-Year Plan”, distributed photovoltaics accounted for 60%, but as of last year, domestic distributed PV only developed to percent. A dozen, this deviated from the original intention of the government's PV policy, so it ushered in the "quick brakes" of the "5·31 New Deal."

Cao Yu, editor-in-chief of Sobi Photovoltaic Network, said that the introduction of the New Deal will lead to the third crisis in the photovoltaic industry. "In terms of the existing technology, many links have bottomed out and there is no room for significant decline in the short term. At the same time, we have achieved parity online access in many countries around the world, and the entire development and management of photovoltaic power plants has become a constraint. The Internet is awkward."

Wang Yigong believes that it is not appropriate to evaluate the pros and cons at the beginning of the policy release. "From a macro perspective, the general direction of the policy is good, but it may not be particularly suitable at any time point, even if the market does not temporarily well connect, it is difficult for us to assess its impact. It is still too early to talk about the quality of the policy."

Bringing a serious blow to the company?

"If the New Deal is implemented, it will cause a serious blow to the entire photovoltaic industry." Qian Pingfan and Cao Yu agreed. China's newly installed photovoltaic power generation has been the world's number one for five consecutive years, and its cumulative installed capacity ranks first in the world for three consecutive years. Photovoltaic technology continues to innovate and break through, leading the world, and has formed a complete photovoltaic industry chain with international competitiveness. Photovoltaic power plays an important role in promoting energy transformation.

In response to the “5·31 New Deal”, Li Chuangjun, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, told the media that the photovoltaic industry “has the problem of photovoltaic power generation and the continued expansion of subsidy demand, which directly affects the health of the photovoltaic industry. In orderly development, it is necessary to adjust development ideas and improve development policies according to the new situation and new requirements.” Li Chuangjun said that the New Deal is not only to ease the problem of consumption, but also to leave room for development of advanced technology and high-quality photovoltaic power generation projects.

The background of “5·31 New Deal” is the pressure of subsidies. The “quick brake” of the total amount of development will stimulate the industry to further reduce development costs and develop to the unsubsidized model, not to suppress the industry. The future mainstream of the photovoltaic industry will be unsubsidized. "In the end, it is still necessary to achieve parity online." Wang Yigong said.

When the reporter participated in the Jingke Energy Media Communication Conference, he was informed that polysilicon is affordable, high in output, high in single crystal conversion rate and long in service life. The original raw materials of both are crystalline silicon materials, and the single crystal requires more processing procedures. A better conversion rate can be obtained. The cost of single crystal cells will also drop, and the price will be the same as that of polycrystalline batteries in the future. At present, enterprises in all aspects of photovoltaics need to adjust the current cost by about 20% to achieve parity online, so there is room for price cuts.

So, is there still room for policy? Cao Yu replied: "No, it is possible to give some grace cycles on some small projects, such as household PV. The big direction will not change." Wang Yigong also received information from many companies saying that he has done a good market plan will not be affected by this new deal.

Handed over to the market for evaluation

Jiangnan Chemical recently said on the interactive platform that due to the small proportion of photovoltaic projects, from the perspective of photovoltaic business, “5·31 New Deal” has little impact on the company's new energy business. According to industry analysts, due to the tightening of PV industry policies, some owners will turn their attention to wind power business, which may aggravate the competitiveness of wind power projects.

How will the photovoltaic industry develop in the future? The National Energy Administration said that the next step will be to study the roadmap for the marketization of photovoltaic power generation, to consider non-fossil energy consumption targets, grid consumption capacity, financial subsidy strength, and improve the “13th Five-Year” PV development goals and development in the next few years. Scale, and rationally grasp the pace of development.

In addition, vigorously promote distributed market-oriented transactions. Continuously improve the business model and operation mode, making distributed market-oriented transactions become an important direction of distributed photovoltaic development, and become a new breakthrough and new market for distributed photovoltaic development under the new situation.

The National Energy Administration revealed that it will pay close attention to the implementation of the renewable energy power quota system, and has completed the solicitation of opinions. It is further revised and improved according to the demand for comments, and strives to be introduced during the year. After the implementation of this system, it will further strengthen the responsibility of local governments and power sales companies, market participants in large power users, and self-sufficient power plants to absorb renewable energy, and promote the development of renewable energy including photovoltaic power generation. Play a very important role.

"The improvement of policies also requires the support of market data, so that the New Deal will grow in the market for a period of time. With data, we can quantitatively evaluate the quality of policy formulation." Wang Yigong believes that the number of analytical articles on the "5·31 New Deal" is considerable. Predicting the benefits or drawbacks that the New Deal will bring to the industry, "Qualitative judgment is always not objective."

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