The lithium-ion battery industry should be a bright prospect under the influence of subsidy policy

On June 12, a new subsidy policy is about to implement to new energy vehicles industry. The industry chain of lithium electricity is expected to once again usher investment opportunities. On June 11, the lithium-ion battery corporate giant NINGDE ERA landed on GEM, but recently the index in the area of lithium-ion battery is not satisfied as expected. On June 8, the lithium-ion battery plate index fell about 0.98%, closed at 4072.54 points, only 6.4% higher than the lowest 3812.25 points in the year.

The lithium-ion battery development under the transition time of new energy vehicles subsidy policy

Since 2018, the new energy car subsidy policy has become the new transition due to the lithium battery plate down further - policy stipulates that the important factors on February 12, 2018 - June 11 subsidy policies for new energy vehicle transition period, during which the registration of passenger cars and passenger vehicles subsidies in accordance with 0.7 times in 2017; Trucks and special subsidies are implemented according to the 0.4 times in 2017.

And compared to the transitional period, canceled after June 12, 100-150 km of new energy vehicles subsidies; After the level of 150-200 km in subsidies will be reduced almost 40%;200-250 km level decreases about 5%; The 250-300 km level rose more than 10%;300-400 km level increased by about 45%;400 kilometers above the level increased by 60%.

The enhancement of influence in Chinese lithium-ion battery industry

China is one of the major producers of lithium-ion batteries. Figures show that in 2014, China's lithium ion battery production of only 5.287 billion, the proportion of total world production of 71.2%, has been the world's largest for ten consecutive years. In 2016, China has reached 7.842 billion lithium-ion battery production, compared with 2010 in 2.687 billion only increased about three times, the compound annual growth rate of 19.54%.

So, for the vehicle and battery manufacturers, before June 12 as far as possible, reduce the range of 200 km below the level of the vehicle and battery inventory becomes the top priority, which leads to lithium carbonate, short-term decline in demand. But after June 12, 250 km above the level of subsidies rather than subsidies in transition period. Consumer demand to June 12, this led to the downstream digestive inventory and fill less even don't fill inventory, in the end in the first half of lithium carbonate was not a huge increase in capacity premise appeared because of the downstream is not an inventory with prices.

Downstream vehicle manufacturers to obtain subsidies to reduce, middle battery manufacturers upstream lithium mineral prices and delivery price decline superposition of multiple factors such as the plate in the first half of the lithium battery industry is full of uncertainty. In addition, as one of the strongest elasticities in the a-share market varieties, in the market by credit default risk appetite is suppressed, the lithium battery industry chain companies this year poor stock performance is not difficult to understand.

On June 12, new subsidy policy will be implemented, it will be a smooth and orderly development of lithium-ion battery industry

On June 12, after the new subsidy policy aims to encourage the development of new energy car makers apparently high range, and high energy density model. The lithium battery industry will further to the battery energy density greater ternary material lithium battery market transformation, a large number of low-quality, inefficient lithium iron phosphate batteries Products will be cancelled because of the subsidy or cuts out of the market to the lithium battery industry into the high-end field, the concentration degree of the industrial chain each niche is expected to get a boost, it should be a smooth and orderly development of the industry.

From institutions at the same time, market research, affected by the new subsidy policy, high level of new energy vehicles at the early stage of the 7-8 month there is a demand release, the process of the industry chain has certain stimulating effect, after the industry chain will continue to prepare for the end of the year, stepping up production scheduling. The heat of June has already started to increase, in the third quarter, for the whole year is expected to the industrial chain will usher in the peak season.

At present the whole plate 69 brokerage forecasts issued by the company's 18 years predict PE a median of 21.96 times, at the same time, combining with 51 are reported for disclosure of earnings forecast company case (29 year-on-year growth, 22 median forecast growth of more than 20%), plate has certain valuation advantage.

But it is worth noting that due to the lithium electricity industry chain gradually from clutter in the high-speed development, rush to the orderly development, higher concentration change, so the leading company in the field of each segment is more possible to fully benefit from the subsequent new subsidies policy as well as in the high-end development strategy.

In addition, although The ternary battery Has officially become a mainstream trend of lithium electricity industry, and high nickel also become the focus of concern of the industry and market investors, but from the current industry chain, each link still need to adjust, distance performance cash is still a long way to go, if the pursuit of the ternary invest subject related materials company, even if short-term profits, or will not escape the fate of the "profit and loss homologous".

After the implementation of new subsidy policy, the whole industry will probably enter an era of“the stronger keeps strong". The odds are bigger if investors look for leading companies to invest, but we need to judge based on performance, beware of periodic risk speculation.

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