In 2020, the Chinese government will release the protection of the domestic battery market

On June 11, 2018, Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Ningde Times") officially landed on the Shenzhen Growth Enterprise Market. Just listed, the Ningde era has experienced a rise of up to 44 <UNK>, a closure of more than 2.5 billion yuan, and a market value of 78.64 billion yuan.

GEM's largest IPO, the world's largest number of power battery shipments, many star organizations plus ... with multiple halos, Ningde era listing is not surprising. As a leading company in the field of power batteries in China, Ningde era in the landing of the stock market to increase the strength of capital, but also continue to cut prices in exchange for a larger market share.

Today, Samsung SDI, LG Chemical and other South Korean companies in China have entered the white list of power battery companies in China. As more international dominant enterprises enter after the state subsidy policy recedes, the shuffling of power battery industry in our country will be accelerated. With the exception of the Ningde era and BYD, which already occupy half of the industry, all other players will face death or marginalization.

The strong are stronger. The first echelon has thrown away its opponent.

In 2017, the installed capacity of the Ningde era reached 10.57 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 57.24 <UNK>, surpassing the "boss" BYD of the power battery industry in one fell swoop, ranking first in China's total installed capacity rankings. In addition, the Ningde era also defeated Panasonic and became the global power battery system sales champion.

At the same time, the company's 2017 power battery system sales average price was 1.41 yuan/Wh, a year-on-year drop of 31.59 <UNK>, and the price reduction was the highest in nearly three years. The exchange of prices has become an important strategy in the era of Ningde before the subsidy recedes.

By 2018, the Ningde era was still expanding. In the first quarter of this year, the company shipped 2.2 GWh of power batteries and increased its share in the domestic market from 30 to 50. In addition, the Ningde era also opened up foreign markets and entered the world's mainstream passenger car power battery supply systems such as BMW, Volkswagen, and Nissan.

BYD, ranked second, achieved 5.66 GWh of installed capacity in 2017, a year-on-year decline of 26.21. Prior to this, BYD's power battery has been using its own development model. BYD, previously the No. 1 power battery industry, was not only overtaken by the Ningde era last year, but even further widened the gap as sales of its new-energy vehicles fell last year.

Compared with the shipment volume, the total installed capacity can best reflect the strength of the power battery company. Even with a sharp decline, BYD's installed capacity is still far beyond the opponents outside the Ningde era. In 2017, the total installed capacity of Watt Ma, Guoxuan Hi-Tech and BAK ranked three to five were only 2.41GWh, 2.05GWh and 1.66GWh respectively. Ningde era and BYD have formed the first echelon of power batteries, and the opponent is far behind.

BYD decided to split the power cell business and start delivering it to the outside world in the first quarter of 2017. BYD expects its power battery business to be split by the end of 2018 or early 2019 and to be independently listed from 2022 to 2023.

BYD has announced plans to build a new power cell plant in Qinghai province. According to the plan, the products produced by the factory will be delivered to the outside world in the future. The market share of BYD and Ningde is expected to continue to expand in the future as the external delivery of BYD power batteries increases and the three-yuan lithium battery products are filled.

Waterma or has been "cool", industry reshuffle is in progress

With the increase of the energy density requirement of the country, the market share of the industry's head companies is increasing. The number of power battery-related companies in China has dropped from 150 in 2016 to less than 100 in 2017. In the case of lithium iron phosphate batteries, in particular, the number of manufacturing enterprises in 2017 was reduced by half compared with 2016.

"Although the reduction in the number is already a big adjustment in the outside world, this is only the beginning." Fang Jianhua, former president of Guoxuan Hi-Tech and executive partner and president of the National Energy Achievements Transformation Fund New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Fund, believes the next elimination will be faster.

On March 25, 2018, the door of the Waterma headquarters, the third largest company in the power battery industry, was blocked by suppliers last year, demanding money, and the scene was chaotic. On April 1st, Wattma's parent company, Kenrui Woneng, publicly acknowledged that the company had experienced overdue debts and overdue debts of 1.998 billion yuan. The company is facing debt repayment risks and has an impact on daily operations. As of March 31, the company's overall debt reached 22.138 billion yuan. In fact, in the WeChat circle of friends of the E-Car News, there is a supplier of Waterma to sell the batteries that have been paid for the goods in order to withdraw funds.

The fundamental reason that led Wotema to be on the edge of life and death is mainly due to his lack of estimates of subsidy policies. Wotema's rapid growth in the previous few years could not be separated from the strong stimulus of the new energy car subsidy policy. He managed to use subsidies to become the main "Baton" for companies such as Wotema, rather than innovation-driven development.

In 2018, the adjustment of the National subsidy policy, Wotema appeared dissatisfied with the phenomenon. In the future, financial subsidies will completely recede. The market's demand for power cell energy density and the increase in the mileage of new energy vehicles will lead to further market concentration.

At present, the capacity utilization rate of power battery enterprises in China is less than 30. However, the low capacity utilization rate does not mean that the development of the entire industry is lagging behind. In the era of BYD and Ningde, the capacity utilization rate reached more than 80, and some of the top power battery companies had insufficient production capacity and began to expand production capacity. At the same time, many small and medium-sized enterprises are facing a series of difficulties such as low-end product positioning, fierce price competition, high accounts receivable, and insufficient capacity utilization.

Overseas giants have entered the domestic market, and only two big domestic giants will survive in the future

In addition to being affected by the decline in domestic subsidies, the power battery industry has begun to face external challenges.

Just after the Ministry of Finance announced the reduction of import tariffs on complete vehicles and parts, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers and the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance jointly announced the white list of the automotive power battery and hydrogen fuel cell industry (the first batch), Samsung Ring New (Xi'an) Power Battery Co., Ltd., Nanjing Lejin Chemical New energy battery Co., Ltd., and Beijing Electronic Control Aisikai Technology Co., Ltd. are three Chinese and Korean joint ventures.

On April 26 this year, Dongyang, executive vice president of the China Automobile Industry Association and chairman of the China Automobile Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, publicly announced that the "Interim Administrative Measures for the White List of Automobile Power Battery and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Industry"(White List) will be formally implemented. The white list has made clear requirements for enterprises, production conditions, technical capabilities, products, and quality assurance capabilities. It is accepted as an irregular system, and it is ready to be accepted at any time.

Obviously, the white list released this time is more targeted than the previous release of the "automotive power battery industry regulatory conditions" business directory, more conducive to promoting the sustainable development of the battery industry.

China is the largest market for new energy vehicles, and the country also supports the development of the new energy automotive industry. Other global power cell giants, such as Panasonic, are likely to join the white list in the future, with three South Korean power battery companies, Samsung SDI, LG chemistry and ska, all successfully joining the Chinese.

By 2020, the Chinese government will release the protection of the domestic battery market. At that time, China's power battery companies will face the impact of foreign competitors, the industry shuffling will be greatly accelerated.

In addition to the two giants of the Ningde era and BYD being able to rely on physical strength and technical strength to fight against each other, other domestic power battery manufacturers are likely to face death or marginalization, and a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises are likely to be in the wave of industrial restructuring. Mergers and acquisitions by industry leaders or upstream and downstream companies trying to enter the industry.

Apparently, the noose around everyone's neck is tight again.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.