Lithium ion battery raw materials supply have a tale of two worlds

Data from the China association of automobile manufacturers show that from January to November, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China have reached 639,000 and 609,000 respectively, up 49.7% and 51.4% year-on-year. In contrast to the rapid growth of production and sales of new energy vehicles, the demand for power batteries is also increasing. However, China automotive news reporter learned that the battery industry raw material supply has not kept up with the pace of industrial development. Recently, the fifth China (Guangdong, Shantou) lithium electricity of new energy industry in Shantou international peak BBS, distinguished guests analysis of new energy vehicles and power battery at the same time, of the industry's future development prospect is put forward, power battery material copper foil, diaphragm of imbalance between supply and demand, for a long period of battery copper foil demand gap is larger, the battery diaphragm market has tended to saturation, but new capacity continues to expand, industry-wide losses may occur next year.

Li copper foil material gap is large

In lithium battery, copper foil is not only the carrier of negative active material, but also the collection and transmission of negative electron flow. In order to ensure the performance of power battery, the battery copper foil tensile strength, elongation, density, surface roughness, thickness uniformity have higher requirements. Demand is high and capacity is limited. Chen yubi, vice President of novo nordisk investment co., LTD., said, "the rapid development of new energy vehicles has led to a sharp increase in the demand for copper foil for lithium batteries and a large gap in copper foil production capacity."

It is reported that in 2015, the global supply of lithium battery copper foil is 90,000 tons, the demand is 91,000 tons, the gap ratio is 1%; In 2016, the supply was 105,000 tons, and the gap was expanded to 3%. Supply is expected to be 110,000 tonnes in 2017, with the shortfall widening to 8 per cent. In China, the production and sales growth of new energy vehicles drives the growth of copper foil production capacity. In 2015, the copper foil production capacity was 59,000 tons, an increase of 19.1% over the previous year. However, the increased production capacity still cannot meet the demand of lithium battery industry. "During the 13th five-year plan period, the demand for copper foil for lithium batteries with multiple holes and thickness less than 6 microns will further increase." Said Chen yu-bi.

It is predicted that the supply of copper foil for lithium battery will be 146,000 tons in 2018, and the demand will be 161,000 tons. The gap will be further expanded. After 2019, the supply imbalance will be alleviated, but there will still be a gap of 2%~3% this year. In addition, the rise in copper prices and power battery demand for copper foil, resulting in copper foil price has increased substantially.

In 2018, the diaphragm industry or total loss

In contrast to copper foil materials in short supply, lithium battery another raw material membrane has been oversupplied. In lithium batteries, the membrane is one of the key components of the inner layer, the requirements are also very high, not only to resist the corrosion of organic solvents, but also to maintain the permeability to let ions through, but also to resist the high temperature generated by electrochemistry. However, the diaphragm capacity is not limited, with the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the global battery diaphragm production line is expanding rapidly, the current situation of overcapacity.

"In 2016, the global capacity of lithium battery membrane is 4.2 billion square meters, the demand is 3.5 billion square meters, the demand in China alone reached 2 billion square meters. But during the same period, China's domestic production of diaphragm is about 1.2 billion square meters, resulting in China's diaphragm industry is heavily dependent on imports. However, sun Dongquan further pointed out that the diaphragm imports large, the replacement space of domestic products is also large, with the rapid development of China's new energy vehicles, a large number of investment began to enter the lithium battery diaphragm industry, diaphragm industry production line construction pace is also accelerating.

It is reported that in March 2017, more than 10 enterprises in China plan to add more than 40 new diaphragm production lines, the capacity of more than 1 billion square meters. Since march, many new builders have been added. For example, Shenzhen xingyuan material co., ltd. will build six production lines with a capacity of 300 million square meters. Shanghai enjie will invest 5.5 billion yuan to produce battery diaphragm; By the end of 2017, 16 production lines of Hunan Zhongli were put into production, and by June 2018, 20 production lines with a capacity of over 2 billion square meters were put into production. Peking University will first invest 20 production lines with a capacity of over 1 billion square meters. Hubei Jiangsheng will invest in four production lines with a capacity of more than 200 million square meters. "" as of the end of October 2017, more than 120 new production lines have been publicly invested across the country. "Said sun dongquan.

Sun dongquan predicted: "in 2018, it is estimated that there are 20 companies interested in entering the lithium battery membrane industry, and the capacity of lithium battery membrane across the country will reach 8 billion square meters. "" the lithium battery diaphragm industry is likely to see an overall loss in 2018.

The diaphragm industry is hit the hardest by subsidy retreat

Recently, the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidies early decline rumors let many battery companies worried. A battery industry insiders told reporters, the "China automotive news" subsidies TuiPo ahead of time, the vehicle enterprises must require batteries to lower the price of supply, in batteries, lithium batteries copper foil material there is a big gap, is the cathode material imports, such as cost reduction space is limited, the diaphragm industry may be the hardest hit areas.

Sun dongquan said: "the subsidy early slope rumors prompted many diaphragm production enterprises to readjust the production process. Among them, dry process by more and more enterprises attention.

It is understood that the diaphragm production process is divided into dry method and wet method. The dry process membrane is composed of PP/PE/PP three layers, which has high safety and PP (polypropylene) material has strong oxidation resistance. In general, the process of dry diaphragm is simple, the production cost is low, but the dry process can not solve the problem of low diaphragm strength, the closed-hole rate is not as good as the wet process. Wet process production of diaphragm, its low melting point PE (polyethylene) layer small pore size is conducive to closed hole, high melting point PE layer large pore size is conducive to lithium ion transmission, diaphragm can also be made very thin, more suitable for high energy density batteries. However, wet process has more steps and higher cost.

Diaphragm industry are faced with the problem has caused China attaches great importance to, the model of battery diaphragm branch Sun Dongquan said: "from the beginning in May this year, branch of warning, more than 10 enterprises gave up investment lithium battery diaphragm industry, there are many originally intended to enter the diaphragm in the field of production enterprises, under our counsel also gradually tend to be more rational. In the future, the lithium battery diaphragm industry needs to focus on improving production efficiency and product quality, reducing costs and controlling risks, rather than capacity expansion.

Some experts said that although new energy vehicles are the future development direction of the industry, but not every segment is a blue ocean, enterprises need to recognize the industrial development situation.

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