Domestic lithium battery diaphragm industry prospects are not optimistic

"China lithium battery diaphragm design capacity is far larger than the required capacity. A few years later, there will be more than half of the diaphragm business failures." When one of the few domestic lithium battery diaphragm Gu Chuanming, deputy general manager of the listed company, said in the first China lithium electricity on the new energy industry international peak BBS. All the audience guests feel a familiar chill.

Such a cool idea already appears in the lithium battery in the whole ecological system." This is an unhealthy industrial chain."domestic18650 battery one of the biggest suppliers of Ming, deputy general manager of battery technology Cheng Jianliang said, on new energy mysterious veil lithium ion batteries related industries, at present, entrepreneurs could only live in dreams before.

The diaphragm of the big industry, was once a lithium battery technical barriers of the big four material the highest, the gross profit margin of a field, also is the domestic manufacturer for "import substitution" late one area.

Now, in further foreign manufacturers share at the same time, the domestic enterprise is for mounting diaphragm on price, falling margins and worry, and "import substitution" was stuck in an awkward position.

Eating into foreign share

"About two years ago, we had been Japanese suppliers on the diaphragm card neck, require payment for two months in advance, even so delivery is not enough, also affect the production. But now in South Korea, domestic diaphragm is very awesome, have their own clear positioning. A domestic battery, head of the enterprise has publicly put forward a certain domestic lithium battery diaphragm for domestic enterprises to get rid of the "inequality" contribution.

"Lithium battery diaphragm three giants still rely on technical superiority monopoly, but the market share has began to decline." GuChuan said, out of cost pressure, combined with domestic diaphragm quality improvement, almost all the lithium electricity enterprises try to import domestic diaphragm.

Data show that domestic import diaphragm in 120 million square metre, the proportion has reduced to 50%, from 75% a few years ago the current domestic market scale is about 800 million yuan of the diaphragm.

"Even though there is gap, but go through" seek first have to refinement, "of course, domestic diaphragm squeeze into the realm of developed countries to master, foreign diaphragm enterprises generally feel China pressure." GuChuan confessed.

But outside the data, the personage inside course of study to the "first financial daily" reporter said, domestic diaphragm is mostly concentrated in the mid-range of Shanzhai phones, electric tools, mobile power supply applications, domestic diaphragm is still very long way to go.

At up to 70% of the gross profit margin, companies flocked lithium batteries film industry over the last two years. China's electronic information industry development institute ccid consulting, general manager of investment making told our reporter, at present there are 40 ~ 50 companies have production plan, the real production sales in more than a dozen or so.

"The current yield is very low, production capacity of 10000 square meters may only 40% ~ 40% of yield, capacity utilization is lower than this number." Making said.

Gu Chuanming also said that the vast majority of the release of production capacity and actual production capacity has a considerable discrepancy, actual domestic diaphragm yield is very low.

According to the analysis of the Chinese chemical and physical power industry association, expects 2013 global diaphragm dosage in 750 million square metre, and domestic diaphragm design capacity has more than 800 million square meters.

The first echelon of Japan is currently in the diaphragm agms, east combustion, the United States Celgard to control over 74% of the global market and high-end diaphragm, the second tier South Korea SK, ube XingChan also gradually into the Sanyo, Panasonic, LGC, SDI, supply chain, and the current domestic lithium-ion battery diaphragm enterprise size slightly larger Xinxiang Ryan, jinhui high-tech, star source material, capacity, respectively in 200 million square meters, 100 million square meters and 100 million square meters, the pearl of Cangzhou output for 70 million square meters.

Now the diaphragm can achieve 30% gross margin is too high, and the accompanying is fierce price war, from 7 ~ 8 yuan/square meters, two years ago to now 4 yuan/square meters." Domestic what prices are, according to the different quality level, import a little better, the domestic some even 1 dollar." GuChuan confessed.

"Import substitution is not necessarily have much good, as long as the price is cheaper, technology almost a little, battery manufacturers are willing to accept. The key is to see them into which customer supply system, do you have any questions in the application." A securities analyst said.

A Shenzhen battery factory technical director told our reporter, at present they more domestic diaphragm in the field of consumer electronics." Cost is lower, small, low-end domestic can also, but big, for safety reasons, it's difficult to say, power battery use very little."

A systemic problem

"Import substitution" as per a diaphragm production enterprise, is still far from reality.

Cangzhou pearl said recently on interactive platform, the company lithium battery diaphragm project after filing patents have been approved, at present, the company production of diaphragm products has reached the requirement of some factory, replace imported is realized.

"Single character can also good, but the stability of the mass production have a problem, can guarantee the consistency of every shipment." A senior lithium electricity industry thinks, "battery makers want to change a kind of material is a long-term process. Many companies make the diaphragm is test is good, but just can't batch production.

Making said, unable to mass production, and production line automation control, is a system problem.

In terms of equipment, Gu Chuanming said that, in terms of equipment and a full range of investment that is less than 150 million yuan, the basic quality control is not good.

At present domestic equipment accounted for more than half of some imported equipment." Because of the different, the control precision, every vendor technology equipment need to customize a lot of time." Making said, there is no core technology, light have good equipment." Step back again, even introduced some of the techniques abroad, but not in such aspects as process can't keep up with."

Gu Chuanming also said that many companies from abroad battery enterprises turn around, Chinese enterprises are relatively dilettante, no background." Now do the basic three categories: domestic plastic processing enterprises, engaged in stretch film, the second is the island of vc, and other industries."

In addition, the materials have many gap. Only agms, Celgard and toray has independent polymer laboratory, have their own special material, GuChuan confessed.

In the research and development, industry insiders told our reporter, almost no commitments to domestic companies." The United States, Japan Celgard agms and east combustion are assets of tens of billions of big companies, these companies are industry diversification, have sufficient financial support research and development." GuChuan confessed.

In addition, because the role played by the diaphragm on the safety of the battery is larger, trust is very important, battery enterprises generally replace diaphragm supplier to 2 ~ 3 years, and international companies, accumulated many years of brand in the market and trust is domestic enterprises in a short period of time.

Capital hesitated

"Enterprise to support a system of research and development, needs 1 billion yuan income to guarantee, they just need capital integration, concentrate on to do, are small enterprises are doing now." Making believe.

China's battery founder in Puritan told our reporter, since this year, new investment in 5 billion yuan of the diaphragm." The next step or want to rely on the power of capital integration, will be a game between several giant; Capital more willing to put into the listed company, as with the equity protection."

But he also thinks that the lithium battery industry market problems are still to be solved." There are still some problems of peripheral level, but in the final analysis, the current technology still can't support demand."

It seems to some investors and investment institutions, diaphragm industry outlook are uncertain.

"We don't like this, in the solid state electrolyte battery of the next generation of technology, for security reasons, liquid electrolyte was replaced trend is inevitable, also no longer need the diaphragm, diaphragm may not be in existence for 5 ~ 10 years later. Was already a surplus in recent years, domestic low-end diaphragm, high-end diaphragm and couldn't make up for the gap and Japanese companies." A domestic fund company, an analyst told our reporter, "we know that there's a Japanese companies has developed mature, next year will be solid electrolyte mass production. Once roll out of production line, the cost decreases, high-end diaphragm will be replaced."

Also some people opposed. The brokerage analysts believe that currently use solid electrolyte or liquid remains controversial." Like tesla is liquid, even it out some problems recently, and automobile chassis puncture - is to protect the problems, rather than the problem of battery pack, in use process continuous improvement. In the process of replacement and applicability, cost a lot of problems."

GuChuanMing said about solid electrolyte, still cannot solve the technical problems within a decade, mass production is not possible.

Another battery industry investors think, in the absence of a mass market, won't do it." Technology is changing all the time, or to give plenty of time to test market."

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.