Deviated battery business? The installed capacity of power lithium battery has been thrown away by the Ningde era

When the whole industry is still shouting for the new energy vehicles, the new energy vehicle "leader" BYD, because of subsidies to decline, profitability and other reasons, fell into the vortex of profit slump. Profits in the first quarter plummeted 83%. It is expected that profits will continue to plummet in the first half of the year. In the short term, BYD seems to be unable to break free.

BYD, who has tasted the sweetness of subsidies, has given the subsidy of the “pot” of falling profits to the subsidy. Compared with the subsidy, the old model and weak profitability are the problems that BYD has to solve now. BYD's proud power battery is now far away from the competitors' Ningde era. BYD's various fronts are in danger.

The model structure is seriously unbalanced

Only two or three cars remain "supporting the facade"

As the new generation of Qin and Tang has not yet been listed, BYD is under the shift period of the model, and there are not many models with strong competitiveness in the market.

In April of this year, Qin, e5 and Song DM broke through the 5,000, 4,000 and 3,000 mark respectively, continuing the previous performance, but Tang, which is preparing to replace it, has sold to less than 200 vehicles, and has fallen for several months. On the list, there have been no traces of the e6 that had been sold by 3,000. But for the terminal market, do these cars really flow to individual users?

Nandu reporter recently visited a number of BYD 4S stores in Guangzhou and learned that Qin and Song DM two plug-in hybrid models are still relatively hot new energy models in the store, in addition to the national supplement and land added 33,000 Yuan BYD officially also cut the price of 10,000 Yuan for the mixed-mix vehicle. "Many customers who buy Qin are doing network-about cars. The general purchase of Song DM is ordinary family cars." Many 4S shop clerkes are reporting to reporters. It is revealed that there are very few customers who purchase pure electric vehicles. "After all, pure electric vehicles have cruising range and charging pile restrictions." During the visit, perhaps on the day of work, the reporter stayed in several stores for about 20 minutes, and they could not see the customer. Considering the network car and procurement attributes of Qin, e5 and e6, the nature of its business and publicity is often greater than the property of “private car”. Therefore, although there are more subsidies, in the 4S shop, almost no e5 is seen, E6 two pure electric car traces.

For example, the e6 model mainly meets the taxi market, and the sales volume fluctuates greatly. In December 2017, the e6 sales volume reached 3,818 units. In January this year, the sales volume immediately fell to 29 units, and the sales volume “evaporated instantly” within one month. Southern reporters checked the relevant information and learned that in December last year. Shenzhen West Lake Co., Ltd. signed a purchase agreement with BYD, and purchased 3,191 pure electric e6s from the latter. In fact, this part of the new energy vehicle meets the taxi industry in Shenzhen. The need for electrification is a typical local large-scale purchase that is difficult to reflect real market competitiveness.

In summary, the new energy model, BYD has Qin, Song DM and e5 support sales, but can really fall to ordinary individual users, bought a writer car, I am afraid only Song DM and other models of the share.

In terms of traditional fuel vehicles, BYD, which sold only 245,000 units last year and dropped 25% year-on-year, has ushered in a small “counterattack” this year because of the expansion of Song MAX sales. In March and April of this year, the sales of the car exceeded 15,000 and 14,000 respectively. During the visit of the reporter to the 4S shop, I also saw that Song MAX basically occupied the best position in the store. However, in addition to Song MAX, BYD's other fuel vehicles have experienced a serious decline, sales have fallen sharply to 4,000 F3, which is already the second-ranked fuel vehicle in BYD's sales. It is very unlikely to reshape the glory. It was considered a popular autonomous SUV. Song fuel version, sales are also not as good as before.

Deep in the turmoil of profits

The reduction in subsidies completely revealed the shortness of BYD?

In the years before the brutal growth of new energy vehicles, BYD, which successfully got a seat, ushered in a boom in revenue and profit. In 2015, for example, BYD’s net profit of 2.823 billion Yuan surged 551% from the previous year. At that time, BYD overtook Nissan, Tesla and other new and old car companies, for the first time to become the global new energy vehicle sales crown, subsidies, subsidies and quick returns, all let the original brand of new energy vehicles at that time "beauty" At that time, there was even a voice in the industry that there was already considerable income from subsidies, and it was secondary to selling cars without making money.

However, as the subsidies for new energy vehicles have subsided, car companies that have enjoyed a lot of subsidies seem to have exposed the pressure of performance overnight. BYD's nearly 20% decline in profits last year, and more than 80% of the decline in the first quarter of this year, was finally asked by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange.

In the past, BYD has been evading the specific figures of subsidies. Unlike many car companies, its financial reports rarely reflect the subsidy data. In BYD's accounts receivable, there have been tens of billions of “lying” for a long time. The main subsidies for new energy vehicles and the amount of cars receivable are compared with the profits, which can only be said to be small. Although the official does not talk about the amount of subsidies, but analysis of BYD's 2017 and 2018 first quarter earnings, it is not difficult to see BYD's high dependence on subsidies.

Nandu reporter compiled BYD's 2017 financial report and learned that the net cash flow from operating activities in the four quarters of 2017 was -24.18 billion Yuan, -10.52 billion Yuan, 4.166 billion Yuan and 5.672 billion Yuan respectively. Yuan, the data is very "jumping", BYD's explanation is that in 2016, the return of new energy vehicle subsidy funds has slowed down noticeably, and the balance of receivables has increased substantially. The net cash flow from operating activities in 2016 has a negative impact. In other words, the speed of subsidy refunds largely determines BYD’s cash reserves.

In 2018, this gap is even more obvious. Although BYD sold a lot of cars in the first quarter, its revenue increased by 17.54% year-on-year, but its net profit dropped by 83%. "The overall profitability of the new energy vehicle business, which includes electric buses and new energy passenger vehicles, was significantly lower than the same period last year due to the decline in subsidies." BYD has no money, how much money can be earned, and it is only linked to subsidies. At the time of the retreat, BYD’s profitability showed a “big diving”.

However, if you get a deeper understanding of BYD's financial report, you can also find that although the net profit is still 102 million Yuan, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non-recurring gains and losses has a loss of 328 million, and usually In the case of non-recurring gains and losses, including government subsidies, that is to say, after deducting government subsidies, BYD has suffered a lot of losses. The data also shows that BYD received a government subsidy of 630 million Yuan in the first quarter of this year. In many cases, the performance has declined. In addition to the decline in subsidies, BYD's own profitability is equally worrying. BYD's recent announcement has repeatedly mentioned that its traditional fuel vehicle profitability has declined.

Deviated battery business?

The installed capacity of power lithium battery has been thrown away by the Ningde era

The reason why it can achieve such a high voice in the field of new energy vehicles is related to BYD's mastery of the "three powers" technology system. BYD is the only new energy vehicle manufacturer, and the only one that relies entirely on its own lithium battery supply. BYD's commercial map occupies a pivotal position. However, BYD, which once ranked first in terms of installed capacity with lithium phosphate batteries, is being pressured by giants such as the Ningde era.

In 2017, the first place in the installed capacity of power lithium batteries, has no suspense to be occupied by the unicorn company Ningde era, although BYD still ranked second with 14.98% market share, but has been thrown away by the Ningde era. The Southern Reporter learned from the research on true lithium that in the first quarter of 2018, the installed capacity of lithium batteries in the Ningde era has already occupied half of the country, far surpassing BYD and Guoxuan Hi-Tech.

From once leading the industry to forming a double giant with the Ningde era, and then being opened by the other side, although the power battery head enterprises are more and more concentrated, but from the market share, BYD can only be "guarded" for its second chair will not be taken away. In this regard, Moke, chief analyst of True Lithium Research, told Southern Reporter that if it is in terms of quality, domestic lithium battery manufacturers only have BYD and CATL (Ningde era), "but BYD lost competitiveness in the face of CATL, there are two main The reason is that BYD is a car-making enterprise, which makes other car companies have concerns. On the other hand, BYD’s 'three-way route' is obviously backward and has not kept up with the trend."

The "three-way route" that Mo Ke said is a pain point that BYD has to mention on the lithium battery technology route. In the past, BYD has been mainly producing lithium phosphate batteries, but relatively more and more recognized by the market in recent years, the ternary lithium battery , the former in energy density, the cruising range is less than the latter, although BYD has now joined the ternary lithium Battery camp, and consciously increase the proportion of ternary lithium battery installed (following BYD's various new cars will also be equipped with ternary lithium batteries), but the late force caused BYD to lose the initiative. In 2017, the ternary lithium battery has already completed the counterattack, occupying 76% of the installed capacity of new energy passenger cars, and the lithium phosphate battery with low density can only play a role in the commercial vehicle field using large-capacity batteries.

What can't be ignored is that according to the 2018 subsidy new policy, the three factors of cruising range, energy density and power consumption of 100 kilometers determine the subsidy level of pure electric vehicles. It is obvious that lithium iron phosphate batteries are contrary to these requirements.

In addition, BYD Chairman Chuanfu Wang said from last year that he would provide power lithium batteries. However, BYD’s battery supply situation is not as fast as the default. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology’s announcement last month showed that Dongfeng’s two commercial vehicles were equipped BYD's lithium phosphate battery, but in the passenger car field, BYD battery's external supply progress, there is no news.

For BYD's battery transformation, Mo ke pointed out that BYD is now forced to turn to the triad camp step by step. "Last year, the hybrid passenger cars were all converted to ternary lithium batteries, and this year they expanded to pure electric passenger cars, the future. It may be extended to passenger cars and special vehicles, but another meaning that is forced is that the heart is unwilling to do so. This kind of mentality can be imagined. The Tengsi 500, recently launched, is a benchmark product for BYD's range, and it USES a ternary lithium battery.

However, when BYD responded to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, it also had an "excuses" about its battery strategy. "Because the company's power battery production line is a flexible configuration, the production structure of the product can be adjusted according to the market demand for lithium iron phosphate and ternary batteries to meet the different needs of the future market."

Self-help

Accelerate product development and upgrade

In response to the double decline in subsidies and profits, BYD also mentioned some self-rescue measures when it responded to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange at the beginning of the month, including speeding up product development for the 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy standard technical threshold, for example in the field of pure electric passenger vehicles. The introduction of models with an energy density of more than 140wh/kg will also receive a subsidy of 1.1 times the new energy vehicle. A new generation of Qin, as well as a new energy version of Song Max, will also be available this year. It is not difficult to see that BYD is still aiming at the upgrade of the model to obtain more subsidies, and the current model will gradually upgrade.

In 2018, it was a year in which joint venture car companies and new car forces made a big push into new energy. Qin and Tang have been calm in the market for a long time. Is the replacement model enough to allow BYD to have enough chips to fight against competitors? The answer is still unknown.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.