Lithium-ion battery industry moves ahead in opportunities and challenges

With the development of lithium-ion battery in the new application field and the strengthening of replacement demand in the traditional application field, the overall steady growth of lithium-ion battery industry in the next few years is an irreversible trend.

In the consumer electronics market, the smartphone replacement process will continue, various wearable products will continue to impact the consumer experience, and the demand for lithium batteries will continue to grow. For tablets, lithium-ion batteries have a long way to go in the market for homogenization because local brands still lag behind high-end brands such as Apple and Samsung in technology. The demand for laptops tends to be saturated, but ultrabooks as an alternative will maintain a strong demand for lithium batteries, and for polymer lithium batteries, the demand will be significantly higher than cylindrical batteries. In power tools, there is still some room for lithium batteries to replace nickel-cadmium batteries, nickel-metal hydride batteries and other secondary batteries. In new energy vehicles, new energy storage and other emerging areas, the global scope will still be at the stage of technology research and development and the initial stage of industrialization, the market will show a rapid development momentum.

Looking forward to 2014, China's lithium battery industry development has the opportunity or is worth looking forward to bright spots.

First, China's new energy car market is expected to take the lead in 2014, driven by positive domestic policies in the new energy car industry, and will see explosive growth in 2015.

This is mainly due to the urgency and determination of the country to prevent and control air pollution. In September 2013, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Development and Reform Commission jointly promulgated the Circular on Continuing the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles, and confirmed in November that 28 cities or regions such as Beijing were the first to promote new energy vehicles. The total number of new energy vehicles will reach a considerable 250,000, and the market capacity of lithium-ion power batteries will be close to 20 billion yuan. Affected by environmental governance, major cities have also begun to implement policies that restrict the development of automobiles, to a certain extent, paving the way for the promotion of new energy vehicles.

The above measures are undoubtedly for the application and promotion of lithium batteries in the field of new energy vehicles, creating a good industrial atmosphere and development environment. However, given the unsatisfactory implementation of the "Ten Cities and Thousands of Vehicles" promotion plan, especially at a time when local finances are increasingly tight, whether this round of promotion can perfectly fulfill its promise has to keep the industry cautiously optimistic.

Under this round of policy stimulus, lithium battery companies may be surprised by the unexpected surprise. That is, the climax of this round of new energy vehicles may accelerate the trial and promotion of lithium batteries in special vehicles such as low-speed electric vehicles, forklifts, and mining vehicles. Accelerated replacement of lead-acid batteries in electric bicycles, electric motorcycles and other fields.

Another bright spot to look forward to is mobile communications.

With the implementation of strategic measures such as upgrading the information industry to expand domestic demand and broadband China, especially the vigorous development of the strategic development network of the Ministry of Strategic Development of the Tianjin lishen battery Co., Ltd. of 3G and 4G mobile communications, China's smart mobile communications equipment will be upgraded and developed rapidly in the next two years. Especially, the local enterprises and local market have matured gradually, which will become an important guarantee for the rapid development of local lithium battery enterprises. In the next two years, the construction of mobile communication base stations will also be in the ascendant. Lithium-ion batteries will be expected to replace lead-acid batteries with more mature industrial chains and economies of scale, as well as the use of power cells in the echelons, and become the preferred solution.

If the new energy vehicles and mobile communications industry is a promising area that deserves special attention in 2014, then there is some uncertainty in the field of power generation and power grid supporting energy storage. According to the "Energy Development" published by our government, Dot; Fifth, the "plan" will reach 100 million KW for wind power generation by 2015, and 21 million KW for solar power generation. It is generally believed that the proportion of supporting batteries in the scenery power generation system is 10 % to 30 %, so the number of supporting energy storage batteries required will be very alarming. However, at present, from the perspective of technology and industrialization development stage, there is still a long road.

In 2014, the lithium-ion battery industry will be a year of opportunity, but it is also destined to be an extraordinary year, because we will face a more stringent development environment and our own development problems will become increasingly severe.

In 2014, the political game between China, the United States and Japan will continue, and the trend of competition will continue to evolve. This will undoubtedly hinder exchanges and cooperation between the lithium battery industries of China and Japan. Whether the competition between the Chinese and US economies will lead to the transfer of orders from Chinese lithium battery companies to Japanese and Korean competitors is also worth noting.

In 2014, judging by the global economic situation, the overall trend is towards recovery and improvement. The situation is still complex: the structural problems of major developed economies in Europe, the United States and Japan are far from being resolved, and new economic growth areas have yet to emerge. Some emerging powers such as Russia and India, economic growth has slowed down; China's economic growth rate will be reduced due to the impact of air pollution prevention and control and the government's correction of GDP guidance.

Slow economic growth will also affect the psychology of consumers, and thus affect the growth of demand, and will certainly affect the development of the industry.

In 2014, China's lithium battery industry will face more difficulties in development, including: labor costs are rising too fast relative to labor productivity; The cost of capital is too high, the financing is difficult, and the financing is expensive. As a result, enterprises face the risk of the capital chain breaking in the adjustment and transformation. Government policy intervention may aggravate overcapacity and make enterprises bear heavy business burden; The continued strength of the renminbi for lithium battery export enterprises increased pressure, especially the yen to maintain weakness, will weaken the price competitiveness of lithium battery export products in China.

In short, the low-cost advantage that China's lithium-ion batteries rely on is far from us. In the future, China will continue to question the wisdom of China's "lithium-electric elite" about how to convert its low-cost advantages into low-cost capabilities, driven by transformation and development and innovation.

From the point of view of customer demand, in the field of new energy vehicles and new energy storage, the requirements for lithium battery companies are more stringent, which will further promote the transformation of lithium battery companies from simple manufacturers to integrated manufacturing and service operators. This has put forward important issues for the transformation of enterprises. From above, it is evident that the environment for the survival and development of enterprises. In this environment, the lithium battery industry will continue to improve the survival of the fittest, adjustment and transformation will continue to deepen.

In 2014, we will be presented with an uneven and even thorny road, one end of which will be full of attractive fruit. Indeed, as a company, we need to maintain a strong desire, but also do not forget vigilance and reason, firmly to walk the foot of the road, we can taste the joy of the harvest.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.