Analysis of the cost and price increase sensitivity of Chinese consumer lithium batteries in 2017

1. The difference in consumer price trends between lithium batteries and power batteries

The new energy vehicle is still a nascent industry as a whole. If it wants to be popularized in the future, the price is an important part of the traditional fuel vehicle PK. The power battery, which occupies about half of the cost of the entire vehicle, has taken the heavy responsibility of lowering the price. At present, the subsidies are removed, and the cost of new energy vehicles is still relatively high. The state also clarifies that subsidies will fall back year by year and will withdraw after 2020. Therefore, how to gradually reduce the cost of batteries by 2020 (the country requires that the energy density doubled while the price is reduced by half) is the most difficult problem for the entire new energy vehicle industry. Consumer lithium batteries are different. After more than 10 years of development, the market size, equipment depreciation, and manufacturer shuffling have advantages. First of all, because the internal space of the mobile phone is limited, the design of the soft pack battery is closer to the physical limit than the power battery, so the specification requirements for the substrate are much higher than that of the power battery. For example, on the negative electrode, the high-end negative electrode (artificial graphite) used in the Apple mobile phone can be as high as 100,000 yuan/ton, while the ordinary natural graphite only needs about 30,000 yuan per ton; on the diaphragm, the consumer battery requires thin and light, high-end electricity. The core uses the wet + ceramic coated diaphragm (thickness 5/7+3um) without price, and the price exceeds 10 yuan/flat. The ordinary power battery can use the dry diaphragm (thickness 16um) without coating. Within 3 yuan / flat. Whether it is a battery factory or a PACK factory, the share has become more and more concentrated, and small manufacturers have become less competitive in terms of scale, cost/bargaining power, safety, and technology. With the increase of share and concentration, the large manufacturers have become more and more powerful in the downstream. The problem of superimposed mobile phone security is getting more and more attention. The design and manufacture of safety protection for batteries and BMS will become more and more valuable. In addition, more and more mobile phone functions, battery capacity demand is further enhanced, and dual-cells bring value. Therefore, unlike the power battery, the price trend of the consumer lithium battery stand-alone is increasing year by year. In 2015, the domestic lithium battery demand for 3C consumer electronics products was 25.37Gwh, an increase of 17.64% year-on-year, accounting for 54.52%, but the growth rate has gradually slowed down, and the growth rate in the next three years will remain at around 5%. The power battery is gradually transitioning from the lead-in period to the high-speed growth period, and will gradually exceed the 3C battery output, becoming the largest consumer of lithium batteries.

China's lithium battery market size in 2011-2018 (100 million yuan)

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

China's lithium battery demand (GWH) in 2011-2018

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

2. Cost analysis of consumer lithium battery PACK

The lithium ion battery module is composed of a lithium ion battery core, a protection plate (BMS), a structural member, and an auxiliary material. The battery cell is composed of a raw material such as a positive electrode material, an electrolyte solution, a separator, a conductive agent, a binder, a tab, and an aluminum plastic film. Among them, the positive electrode, the negative electrode, the electrolyte, and the separator are commonly referred to as the four major materials, and are the most important components of the lithium battery cell. The main materials of the protection board are PCB/FPC, IC, connector, capacitor and other electronic components. The material of the structural parts is mainly plastic raw materials. Excipients include adhesive tape, labels and other materials.

Consumer lithium battery module structure split

Source of data: public information

1) Battery

The lithium ion battery core is composed of a positive electrode material, a negative electrode material, an electrolyte solution and a separator, which determines important indexes such as discharge voltage, pulse current and duration of the lithium ion battery module, and is a core component of the lithium ion battery module.

2) Protection board / power management system (BMS)

The power management system is an important component of the lithium-ion battery module. It is mainly composed of electronic components such as PCB board, IC, field effect transistor (MOSFET), fuse (Fuse), and burns embedded software. If the lithium-ion battery is the "heart" of the lithium-ion battery module, then the power management system is the "brain" of the lithium-ion battery module. Due to the high energy density of lithium ion batteries, overcharging, overdischarging and overcurrent can affect battery life and performance, and in severe cases, it will cause burning and explosion. The power management system ensures the safety and reliability of the lithium ion battery module by controlling the voltage and current of the lithium ion battery, controlling the output voltage and current, and measuring the safety index. The function, complexity, and difficulty of development of a power management system are usually proportional to the number of lithium-ion cells in a lithium-ion battery module.

3) Structural parts

As a casing of a lithium-ion battery module, the structural member functions to protect the lithium ion battery and the power management system. Since the lithium ion battery module is mainly placed inside the electronic product, the precision and insulation of the structural member are Sex has higher requirements.

4) Accessories

Excipients mainly include: insulating adhesive tape, glue, trademark, conductive electrode sheets connecting the batteries, solder paste and tin wire. For the battery core, the five main materials of the positive and negative electrodes, the separator, the electrolyte and the aluminum plastic film occupy more than 90% of the cost, while the cost of the auxiliary materials such as copper foil, aluminum foil, tabs, glue and the like is less than 10%. For the finished battery module, the price of the battery is more than half, the protection board accounts for about 70% of the remaining value, and the cost of structural parts and accessories accounts for about 15%.

Consumer lithium battery cell cost split

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

Consumer lithium battery finished module cost split

Data source: public information, Zhiyan consulting

3. Analysis of price increase sensitivity

This article is limited to the consumer soft-package lithium battery, which is mainly based on lithium cobalt oxide cathode, packaged with aluminum plastic film, the voltage platform is 4.2V.

Sensitivity analysis of lithium cobaltate price increase

Source of data: public information

Here, Model A and Model B are two different types of lithium cobalt oxide batteries, and the material specifications used are different, so the final price is different. Taking Model A (2910mAh) battery as an example, if the price of lithium cobaltate increases by 19.6% under the premise of other materials, the cost of battery cells will increase by 10% for battery manufacturers. Based on the average gross profit margin of the battery factory of 15%, in order to increase the cost of the cover and maintain the gross profit, the price of the finished product of the battery needs to rise by 5.1%, and the gross profit margin after the price increase falls to 14.3%. For the increase of about 60% of lithium cobaltate in the year-to-date, the cost of the battery core is close to 30%. For battery manufacturers, the current price increase of lithium cobalt oxide has made the price of finished batteries have to be passively increased. Price sensitivity is high. For lithium and IC, the proportion of consumer lithium batteries is small, and the small and medium price increases have little effect on the cost. Price sensitivity is low.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.