What is the development trend of the power lithium battery industry?

With the gradual increase in the energy density of lithium-ion batteries, battery safety issues will undoubtedly become more prominent. During the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, China's power lithium battery industry will have a larger market space, and gradually take the lead in the public sector, from the power transmission side to the user side. The following is an analysis of the development trend of the power lithium battery industry.

China's lithium battery industry has developed rapidly, and the scale of production capacity of related enterprises has continued to expand. At present, there are hundreds of power battery companies in China, and the market size of the battery core exceeds 200 billion. In 2016, China's power lithium battery shipments reached 30.5GWh, a substantial increase of 79.4% year-on-year. It is expected that the compound growth rate will reach 30%-40% in the next five years. 2018-2023 Automotive special power lithium battery market market monitoring and investment feasibility study report shows that China's lithium battery industry is facing an overall overcapacity, high-end production shortage situation, the current industry has entered an accelerated reshuffle period, the main power lithium battery manufacturers are planning in the original On the basis of large-scale capacity expansion, and higher requirements on the precision and automation rate of production equipment, it is expected that the capacity upgrade of the lithium battery industry will accelerate in the future, and the market share will be further concentrated to leading enterprises.

Power lithium battery industry development trend

The comprehensive performance of lithium-ion power batteries is relatively excellent, and it is still expected to continue to enjoy the high growth dividend of power batteries in the future. Since the development of electric vehicles, the performance and cost of the core components of power batteries have become the biggest bottleneck restricting their industrialization. Lithium-ion battery performance has obvious advantages in all aspects, and is in the rapid growth period of the industry. The development trend of the power lithium battery industry is analyzed from four major trends.

Trend 1: The industry scale is growing steadily, and China's advantage is expected to expand

In 2017, the growth rate of the main application market of lithium-ion batteries slowed down. The global lithium-ion battery industry scale exceeded 300 billion yuan, and the growth rate dropped by 4 percentage points compared with 2016. Analysis of the development trend of the power lithium battery industry, under the promotion of new energy vehicle promotion policies, the production of electric vehicles in China will reach 650,000 in 2017, and the proportion of the global electric vehicle market will further increase.

Trend 2: Power battery leads growth, market share will exceed 60%

In 2017, as the domestic mobile phone brand has basically occupied the domestic market, the difficulty of international market development is increasing. It is expected that the growth rate will drop to about 10%, and the decline in production of notebook computers and tablet PCs will continue to narrow, but it will continue to decline. Other consumer products such as wearable devices and drones are expected to show rapid growth, but the overall scale is small. Overall, the demand for consumer lithium-ion batteries in 2017 will maintain a low growth rate of around 3%.

Analysis of the development trend of the power lithium battery industry, under the strong promotion of the state financial subsidies, China's new energy vehicle market is expected to expand to 650,000 in 2017, a year-on-year increase of 25%, the market for lithium-ion battery electric bicycles is expected to reach 5 million, plus In the field of power tools and other fields, the market size of the power lithium-ion battery in 2017 is expected to reach 30GWh, an increase of about 30%. On the whole, in 2017, China's power battery will lead the growth of China's lithium-ion battery market, and its proportion is expected to exceed 60%. The contribution rate of power battery to the growth of China's lithium-ion battery industry will exceed 90%.

Trend 3: The subsidy is rapidly declining, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles is lower.

At the end of 2016, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (hereinafter referred to as the “Notice”). According to the requirements of the “Notice”, the subsidies for new energy passenger vehicles have changed little, only 20% of the subsidized mechanism has been reduced according to the subsidies, and the subsidies for new energy buses have dropped more than 40%. The large subsidy of battery subsidies is much higher than previous market expectations, and higher technical requirements are put forward.

Trend 4: New technologies accelerate application, disruptive products can be expected

Analysis of the development trend of the power lithium battery industry, with the increasing use of lithium-ion batteries in various fields, especially in the fields of electric vehicles, new energy, military and other fields, countries and major enterprises have increased research and development support. At the same time, the preparation technology of advanced materials such as graphene and nano materials has been continuously improved, and the research and development of lithium-ion batteries has accelerated. The innovation speed of lithium-ion battery industry has accelerated, and various products have been introduced and put on the market. In the future, with the continuous advancement of various new technologies, new materials including silicon-carbon composite materials and solid electrolytes are expected to be widely used in lithium-ion batteries, and new applications may appear in specific applications such as wearable devices and special environments, disruptive lithium-ion battery products.

With the improvement of the relevant standards system for power batteries in the future, China's power battery companies will also usher in a new chapter. Analysis of the development trend of the power lithium battery industry, domestic power battery companies will eventually achieve "bigger and stronger", gradually narrow the gap with foreign battery companies, and promote China's leap from "automobile power" to "automobile power".

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