Kanai Chairman Yuhongtao talks about the triple pressure of the power cell

There is a topic in the power lithium battery industry that no one can say clearly and no one can say clearly. What is clear is the battery material system. The less clear topic is the soft package, cylinder, and square shell. Which type of battery is better?

A few days ago, Yuhongtao, chairman of Kanai New Energy, shared two hot topics on the battery industry with the theme of "Trends in power battery Technology."

Mr Yuhongtao said it was clear that the battery material system was clear that there were three systems, lithium ferric phosphate and lithium manganate, and that the advantages and disadvantages of the three systems were well understood.

Under the guidance of the country's linking of battery energy density with subsidies and supporting high-specific energy batteries, vehicle factories and battery factories are fanatical in their pursuit of higher-specific energy battery products. From the point of view of energy, the energy of the ternary is the highest, followed by lithium iron phosphate, and lithium manganate is worse.

Therefore, Sanyuan gradually became hot in China. In 2015, the amount of Sanyuan in the market was very small, but the subsequent use of Sanyuan continued to increase, and the market share continued to expand, followed by a sharp increase in the cost of power batteries. From a cost point of view, if the cost of the ternary is 100, then lithium iron phosphate is about 90, and lithium manganate is only 70.

According to last year's statistics, the price of three yuan in 2018 increased fourfold from 2015. It is a grim fact that, even though Chinese companies accounted for seven of the world's top 10 battery makers last year, the entire industry may have made less money than a Swiss cobalt miner.

Once subsidies disappear, the whole industry may be reshuffled and new energy vehicles may be redefined.

Another unclear topic is soft packs, cylinders, and square shells. Which type of battery is better? There is no consensus in the industry on this issue, and it is foreseeable that this will be an ongoing topic in the future.

Although the three types of batteries have their own characteristics and advantages and disadvantages, in general, involving high energy density and passenger cars, the use of soft bags and square shells will be more, involving costs, and columns may be more favored.

It should be emphasized that batteries are a multi-dimensional product. Many people now pay attention to specific energy when evaluating battery technology, but in fact, specific energy is not the main criterion for measuring batteries.

The specific energy depends on the material. As long as the material is used to the extreme, with the 811 material, with the high-end diaphragm and aluminum plastic film, the battery can achieve 300 Wh/kg and 310 Wh/kg. However, battery products that can achieve 300 W/kg than energy and have a cycle life of only one week are not commercially meaningful.

The market needs battery products that take into account safety, recycling performance, high temperature performance, and low temperature performance in addition to energy. Focusing on just one of these dimensions is not only unscientific, it is also very dangerous.

Admittedly, the overall upgrading of the battery is a very long process, and similarly, Only by considering the battery products produced by battery companies, such as charging and discharging performance, life, cost, quality, recyclability, industrial chain, and continuous improvement ability, can the battery companies be determined whether they are truly competitive and what kind of competitiveness they have.

In fact, the primary factor in ensuring the competitiveness of the company's market is the safety of batteries. To ensure the safety of batteries, companies need to conduct a large number of destructive experiments, such as acupuncture, overcharging, dropping tests, etc..

Acupuncture experiments simulate the situation where the battery is penetrated by a sharp object when the vehicle collides. In this case, the battery that does not short-circuit in the fire explosion is safe. Overcharging will break the standard of 4 volts / 5 volts for battery charging. Under this condition, the batteries that do not cause fire or explosion can be confirmed as safe through BMS control. The fall experiment simulated the situation where the battery was hit when the vehicle collided. Under this condition, the battery package could not be confirmed by abnormal battery products.

The second is specific energy. At present, the power energy provided by most battery manufacturers is not very different, and the way to achieve it is also very similar. That is, in the same nature, chemical materials achieve high specific energy. The key to making a company stand out is to ensure industrial production while ensuring that the battery is better than energy.

Then there is the useful life, which involves another real problem in the battery industry -- there is a gap between real use data and experimental data. That is, whether it is the circular life of 2000, 2500 or 2800, most of them are measured data in the constant temperature laboratory, and when they are finally put into use on the car, they need to face real use scenes at different temperatures. In fact, under various current cycle experiments, the power battery can reach the mileage, no one battery manufacturer made clear. What?

The user's usage habits will also affect the service life of the battery. Usually, the actual performance of the power battery that is only used once every six months is inferior to that of the daily use of the power cell, and even the use loss may be more serious. This also has a very large impact on battery life.

The fourth is cost, which is where the battery industry has struggled in recent years. Battery companies face three major cost pressures:

First, the state continues to adjust the subsidy standards for new energy models. Typically, it takes 36 months and 54 months to develop a new car, but new energy vehicles have at most half a year's development cycle, followed by a half year's sales cycle, followed by the need to develop new products later.

Second, the cost of subsidies has been significantly reduced. Comprehensive statistics show that the average subsidy in 2015 was about 2.4 yuan/Wh, in 2016 it was about 2.1 yuan/Wh, in 2017 it was about 1.7 yuan/Wh, and in 2018 it was only 1.35-1 .45 yuan/Wh. The significant reduction in average subsidies has also increased the cost pressure on battery companies.

Third, has not yet established a solid strategic cooperation with customers. Usually, the vehicle factory and the supplier will establish a strategic cooperation, and the supplier will also spend a lot of time investigating the various aspects of the partner's strength. However, at this stage, the relationship between the vehicle factory and the battery factory has not established a normal supply chain for the automotive industry. The frequency of the two parties to replace the partners is very high, and most of them appear in the form of individual project cooperation. After the completion of the same project, Whether the two sides will continue to cooperate will have greater variables.

However, from the perspective of the battery company, the future industrial and production capacity planning and performance requirements of the vehicle factory are clearly defined, and the standard solutions for providing supporting products are developed in conjunction with the vehicle factory. In the future, we will jointly face and work together to solve the problem of electric vehicle replacement batteries, electric vehicles, and low battery preservation rates. This will be the direction that battery companies are looking forward to.

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