Subsidies recede, forcing the battery industry to centralize and power batteries face a second-half knockout.

On January 16, a seminar on the direction of power cell development under the new situation of 2018 was held in Nanjing. Liu Yanlong, Secretary General of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, attended the conference and pointed out that it is an indisputable fact that subsidies will recede in 2018, and new energy power cells will face technological upgrading. High-energy batteries will be the focus of future R&D and industrialization, and future new energy battery production capacity will be concentrated in a few large companies.

Subsidies recede, forcing the battery industry to centralize.

Sales of new-energy vehicles in China reached 794,000 and 777,000, respectively, up 53.8 percent and 53.4 percent, respectively, in 2017, according to data released on January 11 by the China Automobile Industry Association.

In 2017, the total number of power batteries for new energy vehicles reached 37.06 billion Wh, of which 13.98 billion Wh were passenger car accessories, accounting for 37.72 %; Passenger car supporting capacity 14.57 billion Wh, accounting for 39.31 %; The number of special vehicles is 8.51 billion Wh, accounting for 22.95 %.

The lithium ion battery supporting capacity is 36.9 billion Wh, accounting for 99.56% of the matching amount. Among them, ternary: 16.56 billion Wh, accounting for 44.87% of lithium-ion battery matching; lithium iron phosphate: 18.07 billion Wh, accounting for 48.96%; lithium manganese oxide: 1.54 billion Wh, accounting for 4.17%; lithium titanate: 7.4 Billion Wh, accounting for 2%. In 2017, China once again became the world's largest market for power battery applications.

2017 for our power battery industry, can be described as "ups and downs." Subsidies recede slope and new subsidy policy release, shattered the hotbed of policy, power battery industry enters market transition period, industry competition cruel situation begins to show. On the one hand, the energy density of power batteries continues to climb, raising the threshold for products to enter the market and accelerating the elimination of enterprises; On the other hand, reducing costs has become a general trend. The price reduction pressure is carried upstream step by step, and the power battery has gradually changed from a profiteering industry to a profiteering industry.

Liu Yanlong pointed out that with the deep adjustment of national policies, the concentration of the power battery industry will continue to increase. In 2017, the number of supporting enterprises in the first five companies was 22.343 billion WH, accounting for 60.5%; the supporting amount of the top 20 enterprises was 32.09 billion WH, accounting for 87%. The first-line enterprises in the industry gradually eroded market share through technological advantages, while the low-end production capacity of second- and third-tier enterprises faced a crisis of being eliminated. The development requirements of the national competent authorities for the new energy vehicles and the power battery industry are to “help and support the strong” and increase the concentration of the industry.

Increased global competition due to technological upgrading

Judging from the draft 2018 new energy vehicle subsidy, the subsidy policy will mainly be adjusted from three aspects: the distance extension subsidy will be more detailed, the battery energy density requirement will be increased, and the energy consumption coefficient will be subsidized.

For passenger vehicles, the mileage subsidy may be divided into 50km one file, or the key slope A00 model subsidy; In terms of logistics vehicles, the power battery energy density requirement may be increased to 115 Wh/kg, previously required to be 90 Wh/kg; For passenger cars, the energy density requirement for power cells may be increased to 140Wh / kg, previously required to be 120Wh / kg.

It is reported that the subsidy line received by the vehicle factory is 105 Wh/kg, and the subsidy coefficient may be rerouted. The battery energy density is 105 ~ 120 Wh/kg subsidized by a factor of 0.5, and the battery energy density is 120-140 Wh/kg. Subsidized by a factor of 1, The energy density is subsidized by 1.1 times the coefficient of 140 Wh / kg.

It is an indisputable fact that subsidies will be further degraded in 2018. Under the new policy situation, the actual demand for further improvement of the energy density of the system has made it more urgent for new energy vehicle plants to upgrade the technology of power battery companies.

Liu Yanlong said that from the current industry pattern, we can infer that in the future, new energy vehicles and power battery industries will concentrate most of their production capacity on a few large enterprises. For the new energy auto companies and power battery companies with different production capacity, the future market competition will be more cruel.

General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out in the report of the 19th CPC National Congress that China's economy has moved from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development, and is now in the critical stage of transforming the development model, optimizing the economic structure and transforming the growth engine. After the rapid growth of lithium-ion batteries in China, some problems have been exposed, including structural overcapacity, product structure needs to be optimized, product quality needs to be improved, etc.. In order to ensure the sustainable and healthy development of lithium-ion battery industry in our country, we need to seize the historical opportunity of the rapid development of new energy vehicles and accelerate the "quality" step of lithium-ion battery industry. It should not only be a big power battery producer, but also a big power battery producer.

At present, the conditions for foreign investment in new energy vehicles and power batteries have been opened. After the subsidies are completely abolished in 2020, domestic power battery companies will face all-round competition from domestic and foreign companies, and global competition will intensify.

Therefore, enterprises should take the initiative to change their development mode, move from capacity expansion to quality and efficiency, and rely on scientific and technological innovation to take the road of differentiated and high-end development. Enterprises, universities and research institutions should actively follow the road of joint development, carry out strong alliances, cooperate closely between upstream and downstream enterprises, and accelerate the restructuring of power battery products to prevent the risks posed by excessive capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries.

Liu Yanlong believes that high-energy power batteries will be the focus of future research and development and industrialization. It is necessary to speed up the development of high-energy power batteries such as high-nickel ternary systems to meet the requirements of new energy vehicles for mileage renewal. With the rapid expansion of the market for new energy vehicles and energy storage, higher requirements have been put forward for the high safety, high consistency, high conformity rate and low manufacturing costs of power batteries, and power battery enterprises should adopt technological innovation, production automation and management standardization. We will accelerate smart manufacturing in the battery industry.

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