The market fresh air mouth lithium battery or enters spells the cost performance stage

Introduction: with the promotion of electric vehicles and the development of related technologies, ternary lithium battery (hereinafter referred to as "ternary battery") has become a trend. In the domestic market, passenger cars have been equipped with ternary batteries, and their production capacity is also growing. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are losing ground due to the relatively low energy density.

With the promotion of electric vehicles and the development of related technologies, ternary lithium battery (hereinafter referred to as "ternary battery") has become a trend. In the domestic market, passenger cars have been equipped with ternary batteries, and their production capacity is also growing. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are losing ground due to the relatively low energy density.

Nowadays, the "boots" of early subsidy retreat fall to the ground. Driven by the policies and market factors, some electric logistics vehicle enterprises abandon the ternary battery to choose lithium iron phosphate battery. This phenomenon makes the industry more concerned about the change of product pattern in the power battery market.

Ternary batteries are favored because of their high specific energy

The high energy density of the battery reflects the advanced technology, which means the continuous driving range of electric cars is longer. In order to seize the industrial development opportunities brought by the wave of electrification, China has issued relevant policies to encourage high-specific energy batteries.

Made in China 2025 clearly requires that China's power battery energy density should reach 300 watt-hours/kg by 2020, 400Wh/kg by 2025 and 500Wh/kg by 2030. Wan gang, former minister of science and technology, has said efforts should be made to double the energy density per unit of power batteries, reduce the manufacturing cost by 50%, and bring the energy per unit battery to more than 300Wh/kg and the cost to less than 1 yuan/watt-hour. Before the Spring Festival this year, the four ministries issued the "notice on adjusting and improving the fiscal subsidy policy for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles" to further encourage the development of high-specific energy batteries -- pure electric passenger vehicles with driving range of 100 R < 150 km will no longer enjoy subsidies in 2018. The subsidy of continuing driving range of 150 R < 250km decreases, and is divided into two levels of subsidy, while the subsidy of continuing driving range of more than 300km increases instead of decreasing.

The theoretical limit for the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 170Wh/kg, while ternary batteries are much higher. The research direction of improving energy density of battery enterprises is ternary materials. Under the guidance of the policy, car companies have also replaced the lithium iron phosphate batteries commonly used in new energy passenger vehicles with ternary batteries. The most typical is byd, which used to be proud of its iron-battery technology. The E6, qin and other models have achieved a miracle in sales by virtue of their iron-phosphate lithium batteries. But byd song EV, which went on sale last year, no longer USES its own lithium iron phosphate battery, but comes with an outsourced ternary battery.

Industry also ushered in the investment three - lithium battery boom. In the middle of last year, guoxuan started construction on a 2 billion yuan 4GWh three-phase battery project in Qingdao, shandong province. Late last year, byd released a record of its investor relations activities, showing that it plans to expand a 10-gwh ternary battery plant in qinghai in 2018. The list goes on and on.

Soaring cobalt prices are adding to pressure on the cost of ternary batteries

In the era of lithium iron phosphate, lithium carbonate has a great impact on the cost of batteries. In the past period, the continuous rise of its price has made battery companies feel pressure. Recently, the price of lithium carbonate has fallen, and it is expected that there will be some room for further decline. After ternary material became a product trend, the price of cobalt metal rose at a surprising speed.

In 2015, the global supply of refined cobalt was about 10 percent. 20,000 tons, demand is about 9. 20,000 tons, its price maintains relative balance. In 2016, the price of cobalt began to rise steadily, but at a slow pace, ranging from 100,000 yuan to 150,000 yuan per ton. In 2017, cobalt prices have been on the rise, and this year could be as high as 800,000 yuan per ton.

In ternary materials, whether NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) or NCA (nickel-cobalt-aluminum), cobalt is an indispensable element. Currently, most battery companies use the 523 or 622 technology route, in which cobalt accounts for 20 per cent. Driven by demand, cobalt price continues to rise rapidly due to multiple factors. In fact, as new energy vehicle production and sales growth, the major futures market generally bullish cobalt. An industry fund source told China automotive news that cobalt's scarcity, tight supply and demand, oligopoly control, easy speculation in the futures market and the current situation in Congo are all factors that have pushed cobalt prices up.

Data show that in early 2017, large fund companies such as Switzerland's Pala and Shanghai chaos investment began to sweep the world. The two fund companies alone stockpiled 6,000 tons of cobalt metal, accounting for about 17 percent of the world's total output. The Westbeck electric metal fund, which raises 2. At $500 million, cobalt is the most heavily traded variety.

Congo has two-thirds of the world's cobalt. In January, Congo revised its mining tax law to impose a double tax on cobalt, raising the patent tax on base metals from 2 per cent to 3 per cent. Cobalt is a strategic metal and the revised code will also impose a 5 per cent patent tax on strategic metals.

Car companies, aware of the need for large amounts of cobalt to meet future battery production needs, have stepped up procurement efforts. BMW will sign a 10-year contract to supply lithium and cobalt to power its electric car batteries, foreign media reported. In addition, Toyota, Volkswagen and other multinational car companies have also joined the competition for raw materials, cobalt metal became the focus.

Cobalt is not only used in cars, mobile phones and other electronic products also need a lot of resources. Apple is in talks to buy cobalt directly from miners for the first time in a long-term deal, bloomberg reported, seeking thousands of tons a year in supply contracts for five years or more. According to the latest news, samsung products, a company affiliated with samsung electronics, is negotiating a long-term cooperation agreement to purchase cobalt with a mining enterprise in Congo, following the example of apple and joining the global cobalt competition.

Faced with this situation, domestic enterprises are not calm. Swiss mining giant glencore has signed a huge order to supply more than 50,000 tonnes of cobalt used in the production of battery materials over the next three years, foreign media reported recently. That is about half of global cobalt production last year and a third of what glencore, the world's largest producer, expects to produce in 2018-20.

Market fragmentation or the revival of lithium iron phosphate

In order to improve the driving range and make the battery more reasonable in the layout of the vehicle, the direction of technological progress of the vehicle and battery enterprises in the past two years is to improve the energy density of the battery, leading to the wide application of ternary materials. However, the price reduction space of ternary materials is limited. With the market promotion and intensified competition, cost has become a headache for enterprises.

Zhang qingping, deputy general manager of baic new energy, said: "in the past two years, with the improvement of battery pack development technology, lithium iron phosphate has also made progress in energy density, which can meet the current national technical threshold requirements. The price of lithium iron phosphate is relatively stable and has the characteristics of high safety. It is widely used in electric logistics vehicles and small cars. Mainstream passenger cars are still dominated by ternary batteries.

The new subsidy requires power batteries to have an energy density of at least 115Wh/kg, a level that lithium iron phosphate can easily meet. Fang jianhua, partner and President of the new energy vehicle venture capital sub-fund of the national fund for the transformation of scientific and technological achievements, said, "right now, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries can basically meet the subsidy requirements. As the price of raw materials rises, the cost difference between the two gradually emerges.

For lithium iron phosphate batteries, the cathode material accounts for only 20% to 30% of the cost, while for ternary batteries, the proportion is about 40%. Rising cobalt prices have dimmed the energy density advantage of ternary batteries, while lithium iron phosphate batteries are safer than ternary batteries and have a cost advantage over their full life cycle. "Ternary batteries have about 1,000 cycles," fang said. "lithium iron phosphate batteries can easily reach 1,500 to 2,000 cycles."

After 2020, the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles will be officially withdrawn, and market forces will play an important role. At that time, the market may be divided. "Electric logistics vehicles and passenger vehicles below grade A0 are price sensitive, and lithium iron phosphate batteries can just meet their needs," said fang. "" mid-to-high-end passenger cars pay more attention to performance, and ternary batteries have advantages in this regard.

With the advent of the era of e-commerce, electric logistics vehicles have a broad prospect. Not long ago, jd announced that it would replace all its logistics vehicles with electric vehicles. In addition, a large part of electric vehicles play a basic role in transportation, and there will be a large market space for electric vehicles below A0 level in the future. Two factors add up, and lithium iron phosphate batteries may see a comeback.

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