Three-element material "drop cobalt to increase nickel" into a new development trend!

Since 2017, the main domestic ternary material manufacturers have begun to increase their technological reserves and development of high-nickel 811 products, and in the second half of the year, they have successively conducted trials or mass production, and production capacity has gradually been released.

Cobalt reduction and nickel increase into a new trend

Driven by policy, the demand for high energy density ternary materials has increased rapidly in recent years. Cobalt is an important raw material in ternary materials, but its resources are scarce and prices have continued to rise since 2017. In the case of cost pressure and subsidy pressure, the "cobalt reduction and nickel increase" of ternary materials has become a new development trend.

Nickel sulfate is becoming a new focus in the industrial chain. Pacific Securities expects that with the gradual increase in the penetration rate of high-nickel ternary batteries, domestic demand for nickel sulfate in the power field will reach 64,300 tons, 131,300 tons, and 299,400 tons respectively from 2018 to 2020, an increase of 60 %, 104 %, and 128 % respectively. In terms of global demand, it is estimated that the demand for nickel sulfate from 2018 to 2020 will be 310,000 tons, 480,000 tons, and 780,000 tons, an increase of 37 %, 54 %, and 61 % year-on-year, and the annual compound growth rate will reach 50 %.

In fact, new energy giant Tesla is also working on battery-de-cobalt. Tesla CEO Max Musk recently said that Tesla can significantly reduce the amount of cobalt in the battery while increasing the nickel content of the battery. While making this change, it still maintains the excellent thermal stability of the battery.

The "Medium-and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" clearly states that by 2020, the annual production and sales of new energy vehicles will reach 2 million vehicles, and the energy density of power cells will reach 300 Wh/kg or more, striving to achieve 350 Wh/kg, and the system energy density will strive to reach 260 Wh/kg. The cost falls below 1 yuan / Wh.

Expand the layout of listed companies

Since this year, Zoneng, Bic, Hengdian Dongmao, Deloneng, Tianjin Li-Shen, Yi-Wei Li-Neng and other lithium power plants have increased the production of high-nickel batteries, and the demand for nickel-cobalt manganese 811 in the future will have an explosive growth. Ningbo Jinhe, Dangsheng Technology and other positive pole manufacturers have taken the lead in the production and sales of nickel cobalt manganese 811. According to Pacific Securities Analysis, compared to Model 523, the gross profit rate of Type 811 can be increased from 18.5 % to 28.4 %, an increase of nearly 10 percentage points.

A number of listed companies have increased their layout. When Sheng Technology has a production capacity of about 16,000 tons of cathode materials, of which about 3,000 tons of lithium cobalt acid, about 5,000 tons of nickel cobalt manganese 523, about 4,000 tons of nickel cobalt manganese 622, and about 4,000 tons of nickel cobalt manganese 811. Sequoia said the company's 7200 tons of high nickel ternary production line in the first quarter of 2018 has been put into production. Green said that the current positive material is open up, and at the same time through cooperation with ECOPRO to build 10,000 tons of nickel cobalt aluminum precursor production capacity. Tianci materials said that the construction of an annual output of 150,000 tons of three-membered lithium electric basic materials project, of which the first phase of the project plans to build an annual output of 50,000 tons of battery-grade nickel sulfate production line, the total investment is estimated at 189 million yuan.

Some analysts also pointed out that high nickel ternary material technology is more difficult and requires continuous investment in corporate scientific research. With the increase of nickel content, although the overall energy density has been increased, the content of cobalt, manganese, aluminum, etc. has been reduced, resulting in a decrease in stability. At the same time, the high nickel material preparation technology, equipment and production environment are all much higher than the ordinary ternary material, and it is also a difficult point that enterprises need to break through in the production line construction.

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