Power battery development: the stage will be phased out or merged in the future

In recent years, China's new energy automobile industry has developed rapidly. In 2017, China's new energy vehicle production and sales exceeded 700,000 units. The number of new energy vehicles has exceeded 1.8 million. In recent years, production and sales will reach 100,000 units. Driven by the production and sale of new energy vehicles, China's electric vehicle-related technology and supporting infrastructure construction has also achieved certain development, embodied in batteries, power consumption, charging and other aspects.

Power battery technology is developing rapidly, and the phase of elimination or merger will be ushered in the future.

China's electric vehicle power battery technology route is divided into two types of lithium batteries and fuel cells. At present, lithium batteries are mainly used in China. Compared with foreign countries, the technical level of domestically developed lithium-ion battery cells is basically at the same level as that of foreign countries. China's power battery shipments have already ranked among the world's leading companies, whether it is cathode materials, lithium iron phosphate, ternary, high-electric manganese. All materials are in an advantageous position.

Data show that from 2014 to 2017, China's total power battery capacity has increased steadily, from 3.64 billion WH to 37.06 billion WH, achieving a large increase, mainly due to the increase in the number of power battery manufacturers.

In terms of policy support, relevant national departments have also shown their emphasis on the development of the power battery industry, covering the power battery industry norms, power battery industry development, power battery standards, power battery recycling, and other aspects. In 2015, the National Development and Reform Commission The “Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Development Guide (2015-2020)” was issued. The guideline states that by 2020, there will be more than 10,000 new centralized charging and replacement stations and more than 4.8 million decentralized charging piles. To meet the national 500-year-old electric vehicle charging demand, the planned pile-to-pile ratio should be close to 1:1.

At the same time, China has also developed a series of development plans and plans based on relevant foreign experience. By 2020, the mass density of battery modules will reach 300 Wh / kg or more, and the cost will fall below 1,5 yuan / Wh. The details are as follows:

Although the development speed of power batteries is amazing, in fact, the total demand for power batteries in China is less than 3.5 billion WH in 2017. It can be seen that the power battery market will usher in the overcapacity stage in the future, so in the next stage, the Chinese government or The development strategy will be adjusted to guide the healthy and coordinated development of the power battery industry. There has also been news in the industry that subsidies for new energy vehicles have entered a stage of retreating. There is no doubt that the power battery industry will also be affected.

In addition, from the perspective of the industry pattern, the latest data shows that in the first quarter of 2018, the installed capacity of lithium-ion batteries in the Ningde era accounted for half of the total, accounting for 49.5%; the second was BYD, accounting for 19.8%; the third was the country. Xuan High-Tech, accounting for 8.7%. The top three producers account for the majority of the market, which is enough to suggest that the power battery market is about to usher in the phase of mergers and acquisitions.

However, due to the impact of the cost of new energy materials, the profit of the power battery industry in China is being reduced. Experts predict that in 2018, the power battery company's gross profit rate will drop from about 30 % to about 20 %.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.