"Double points" policy landing, power battery industry shuffling reference

"The implementation of the 'double points' management method is about to be implemented. The new energy automotive industry is facing problems such as rapid expansion of production capacity, shortage of industrial chains, and lagging recovery and utilization. "Songxianzhu, vice president of the Seidi Research Institute of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out at the 2018 China New Energy Power Battery and Storage Industry Conference held on April 21 that the high cost and difficult to break through the energy density level have become the power battery industry. The two critical points that are urgently needed.

The reporter was informed that the power battery industry shuffling speed is further accelerating. According to Liuyanlong, Secretary General of the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, between 2015 and 2017, the number of power battery-related supporting companies has dropped from 150 to about 100, which means that one-third of the companies are out of the game and future industry competition will be even more fierce.

High cost to enterprises

The reporter learned that power battery enterprises are facing a "downmarket crisis", on the one hand, the rising price of battery raw materials, and on the other hand, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been declining year by year, and power battery companies are generally under pressure.

"Technology determines how high a company can fly, how much quality determines how far it can fly, and costs determine whether it can fly." Zhaobaoxing, deputy general manager of Lishen Power Battery System Co., Ltd., said frankly that due to the continuous increase in raw material costs and the continuous reduction of battery prices due to the impact of national policies, the cost pressure on battery companies is huge.

It is reported that the "Medium-and Long-term Development Plan for the Automobile Industry" issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of Science and Technology in 2017 proposed the implementation of the Hedongli battery upgrade project for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, and the development of power battery key materials, individual batteries, and battery management systems. Accelerate the realization of a revolutionary breakthrough in power batteries. By 2020, while breaking through the bottleneck of energy density, strive to reduce the cost to less than 1 yuan per watt-hour.

China Automobile Industry Association Deputy Secretary-General Yeshengji said at the meeting that although China's new energy vehicle production and sales volume is currently the world's first, but whether it can maintain the leading level is not yet certain. Yeshengji believes that at present, the new energy vehicle market in China has not yet been fully formed, and the level of industrialization is low. There is still considerable room for development of key technologies, battery performance and cost.

"The current price costs are entirely supported by subsidies, just as children can not live without weaning. The new energy car industry also needs the care of the entire industry. Only if the pace is steady will it not wrestle. "Yeshengji stressed.

Technical routes are controversial

"Due to the lack of endurance, we are either charging or on the way to charging. "Tianxiaobo, general manager of Shenzhen Times High-tech Equipment Co., Ltd., admitted at the scene. Yangyusheng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also said that the development of new energy vehicles must resolve mileage anxiety as soon as possible.

The endurance has become the commanding point for the competitiveness of power batteries. However, what kind of power battery technology has more potential for development, and participants had a lively discussion.

It is understood that lithium sulfur batteries are considered to be one of the most potential high-energy density energy storage devices in the industry. According to the data, lithium sulfur batteries use sulfur as a positive material, and the battery theory can reach a maximum energy of 2600Wh / kg, far exceeding the widely used lithium cobalt acid batteries.

However, at present, lithium sulfur batteries are still in the research stage. Yangyusheng predicts that lithium sulfur batteries will be difficult to achieve in the next 3-5 years. "Even eight years in a decade is not pessimistic." At present, lithium-sulfur batteries have five major technical difficulties, such as low safety, low volume than energy, low discharge doubling rate, low energy conversion efficiency and low cycle times.

In addition, lithium air batteries are also a very promising high-specific capacity battery technology that uses the reversible reaction of lithium metal and oxygen to reach a theoretical energy density of 11,000 W/kg. However, the industry has continued to dispute it. Yangyusheng believes that the energy conversion efficiency of lithium air batteries is too low and their life span is short, and it is very likely that "far hydrolysis can not be far thirsty." Professor Zhouhaoshen of Nanjing University and a special expert on the National thousand people program is optimistic. He believes that lithium-air batteries are difficult but promising. "We have conducted research experiments on catalysts, diaphragm, etc.. The next step still needs to solve the problem of comprehensive efficiency and will not be possible. "

For hydrogen fuel cells that are recognized as ideal in the industry, Yangyusheng also questioned: "There is a view that the conversion rate of hydrogen energy is high and clean, and I do not think it is completely correct. Hydrogen is produced using fuel cells. Hydrogen compression and transportation also consume energy. The entire process still emits a certain amount of carbon dioxide. He stressed that the superiority of fuel cells has yet to be tested.

"The ultimate goal of electric vehicles is not necessarily pure electric vehicles. The most ideal low-carbonized electric vehicles in the future should be photovoltaic and wind power powered batteries that provide energy to the engine through biomass, or alcohol-fired electric vehicles that do not burn oil. "Yangyusheng looked forward.

Increased competition in the industrial chain

According to data from the China Chemical and Physical Power Industry Association, the top five power battery companies in 2017 were: 105.68 billion Wh in the Ningde era, 5.66 billion Wh in BYD, 2.412 billion Wh in Wotema, and 204.8 billion Wh in Guoxuan Gaoke, and 1.655 billion Wh in Bic. Among them, the market share of the Ningde era has soared beyond BYD, from 20.6 in 2016 to 29.2 in 2017.

Wuhui, research director of the Yiwei Economic Research Institute, also analyzed on the scene that in 2017, the structure of China's new energy automotive industry and the pattern of corporate competition have undergone significant changes. Leading enterprises have changed from BYD to Ningde era. Lishen, China Airlines Lithium, Wanxiang, Guangyu, CITIC Guoan and other companies have dropped significantly, and Voneng, Bic, Yiwei Lithium, Jiangsu Zhihang, Guangdong Tianjin and other companies have risen strongly.

Liuyanlong said that the future market will be further concentrated in the dominant companies, only with strong technological accumulation, sufficient capital support, rational market positioning and can quickly respond to the market battery manufacturers can take the lead and win the market.

In this regard, a number of representatives of participating enterprises also stated that the future market competition will no longer be only competition between products or individual enterprises, but competition between platforms and industrial chains.

BYD Battery Group's second division director Zhangchunyu revealed that BYD currently has a certain scale battery recycling production line, but in the future BYD will release this part of the business, and cooperate with similar companies to promote recycling related work. Fuzongleifengping of Shanghai Electric Guoxuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. also agreed. He emphasized that "the trend of win-win cooperation between the upper and lower reaches of the power battery industry chain is so huge that it is difficult for a single company to lead the development of the industry. "

Song Xianzhu called for the establishment of a new mechanism for effective cooperation between power cell industries in the upper and lower reaches of the power battery industry, and for exchanges and collaboration on common key technology development, intellectual property license and protection, standard research, and policy measures to promote the coordinated development of power battery and related industries. He believes that the industry needs to work together to further enhance the power battery industry technological innovation and market competitiveness.

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