Market analysis of power batteries

The power battery PACK finished product consists of three parts, namely the battery module, the BMS and the fixed frame. The process includes battery assembly, welding, semi-finished product testing, labeling and packing.

The power battery PACK system uses mechanical structures to connect a number of individual cells through series and parallel, and considers system mechanical strength, thermal management, BMS matching and other issues. As a key step in the production, design and application of power battery systems, PACK accounts for about 35% of the cost. It is the core link between upstream cell production and downstream vehicle utilization. It requires a lot of mature technology to cross and cooperate. The technology includes customized development technology of battery management system, thermal management technology, current control and detection technology, module assembly design technology, aluminum alloy power battery outer box casting technology, and computer virtual development technology.

Global power battery market size

Demand for power batteries will increase rapidly in the future due to the dual-wheel drive of downstream new energy vehicles and increased vehicle power.

(1) Global market: We expect the demand for power batteries in 2018, 2020 and 2025 to be 88GWh, 205GWh and 583GWh respectively, of which CAGR is about 33% from 2018 to 2020. It is estimated that the market size will exceed 120 billion in 2018, and will increase to 215.3 billion in 2020. The CAGR is about 21% in three years.

(2) Domestic market: We expect the demand for power batteries in 2018, 2020 and 2025 to be 47GWh, 97GWh and 270GWh respectively, of which CAGR is about 27% from 2018 to 2020. It is estimated that the size of the Chinese market will exceed 66 billion in 2018 and grow to 101.9 billion in 2020.

Global power battery market size (100 million yuan)

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

China's power battery demand situation

In recent years, with the vigorous promotion and application of new energy vehicles, the power battery market has also developed rapidly. According to the "power battery PACK Industry Development Forecast and Investment Strategy Planning Analysis Report" released by Prospective Industry Research Institute, the demand for power battery in China reached 28GWh in 2016, the effective capacity of the whole industry is about 56Gwh, and the capacity utilization rate is about 50%. The China Industrial Research Institute predicts that the demand for power batteries in China will reach 31.3GWh in 2017. By 2018, China's power battery demand will exceed 50GWh.

2016-2020 China's power battery demand forecast

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

The power battery industry is becoming more and more clearing.

According to the data of the Prospective Industry Research Institute, as of the end of 2017, the total domestic power battery capacity reached 135GWh, and the effective capacity was 110GWh. The annual power battery shipment was only 36.2GWh, and the average capacity utilization rate was less than 40%. Estimated by the capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises up to 80%, the capacity utilization rate of some SMEs is only 10%, and the low-end capacity overcapacity is obvious.

In the next two years, first-line battery manufacturers still have new capacity. It is expected that the total power battery capacity will reach 206GWh and 285GWh in 2018 and 2020 respectively. The demand for power batteries will be 47GWh and 97GWh respectively. The technology is backward and lacks stable vehicle customers. The small capacity will be eliminated.

China's historical power battery shipments

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

China's power battery market share distribution

Among the power battery manufacturers, BYD and CATL shipped 7.35GWh and 6.72GWh respectively in 2016, and the combined market share reached 50.2%. The market share of Womat and Guoxuan Hi-Tech was also 8.9%. And 6.6% of the remaining companies' power battery shipments in 2016 were less than 1Gh, and the top 10 companies had a total market share of 79%, and the market concentration was high.

Market share in power battery

Source: Prospective Industry Research Institute

In 2020, the scale of 200GWh or more, the formation of Big4 oligopoly

In 2020, the power battery market will be above 200GWh, and CATL, LG, Samsung and Panasonic will become the global Big4. The CATL market is mainly in China; LG and Samsung are mainly in Europe and America; and the Panasonic market is mainly Tesla. Among the top four, the order by share is expected to be CATL, Panasonic, LG and Samsung.

Degree of marketization

In recent years, thanks to the promotion of national industrial policies, the power battery industry has developed rapidly. With the implementation of the new points policy the impact of factors such as the improvement of lithium battery production technology, the decline in manufacturing costs, and the popularity of charging facilities will further deepen. The lithium-ion power battery industry will continue to develop rapidly and the degree of marketization will gradually increase.

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