Why does Power battery industry shuffle quietly

Although the new energy automobile industry has been promoted for several years, compared with the publicity by public opinion, the actual development situation has always been "a lot of thunder and a little rain". Traditional vehicle enterprises lack of practical passion, and new brands lack of capital and technical support.

As the policy of "double integral" in September 2017 formally launched, public opinion is generally believed that 2018 will be the new energy automotive industry take off for a year, the reason is simple, vehicle enterprises and consumers, for new energy industry has a certain degree of understanding and understanding, the integration of upstream and downstream related enterprise work has also made several years of accumulation.

In fact, the new energy industry has changed from a niche market that was not valued by the industry before to a blue ocean field that is increasingly valued by all parties, including multinational automobile enterprises. Many new joint ventures such as jac Volkswagen and zotye ford are generated for this purpose.

As the core field of the development of new energy automobile industry, power battery has been the focus of extensive attention. How will China's power battery industry develop in the future?

After the subsidy blowout

As the new energy vehicle industry is regarded as a major strategy, corresponding incentive policies are also introduced accordingly. Since the notice on the pilot program of private purchase of new energy vehicles in 2010, encouraging policies for the development of new energy vehicle industry have emerged one after another.

There will be different measures in different stages of development. In the early stage, the measures are mainly financial subsidies and policy guidance, mainly encouraging and positively encouraging consumers to buy, and the upstream and downstream industrial chain to transfer to new energy. These measures, while very effective in the early stages of industry development, are not sustainable.

With the new energy automobile industry orders of magnitude gradually increased, the financial burden will be more and more heavy.

At the same time, at the end of 2014, without a major breakthrough in electric vehicle technology, the number of domestic enterprises that announced or have entered the field of electric vehicles has far exceeded that of Japan, which was the first to engage in the research and development of new energy vehicles.

The reason some companies are so active in new energy research and development that they don't have the capacity is precisely because of subsidies from national and local governments. In 2015, cheating subsidies were found one after another. Some oems employees resigned to electric vehicle modification companies in remote prefecty-level cities which were not conducive to the development of vehicle enterprises. One car can cheat more than 70,000 yuan of state and local subsidies.

As a result, the industry has raised concerns about the effect and significance of new energy subsidies, and new energy subsidy policies have also been adjusted accordingly, thus accelerating the decline has become the consensus of all parties. Although the current new energy subsidy policy for 2018 has not yet been issued, according to the circulated draft, it can be found that the subsidy for new energy vehicles in 2018 will accelerate the decline, among which the important point is that the subsidy for products with the range less than 150 kilometers of new energy vehicles will be zero.

Public opinion believes that the impact on the new energy industry will be huge, especially in 2017 the scenery unlimited micro electric car, sales in the first half of 2018 or hit hard.

According to the statistics released at present, the sales volume of micro electric vehicles accounted for 65% of the whole new-energy passenger vehicle market in 2017. In the first 11 months, baic EC series and zhidoud2 have won the first and second place in the market segment respectively. Baic EC series 64,910 and zhidoud2 have sold 41,155 units.

The driving range of these two cars is respectively 162km and 155km in the comprehensive working condition. If calculated according to the new standard of 2018, the "national compensation + land compensation" obtained in 2018 will be reduced to 30,000 yuan from 54,000 yuan this year, that is, the terminal price of about 100,000 yuan should be increased to 124,000 yuan. If the enterprise does not take the corresponding price strategy adjustment, the electric vehicle sales cliff type diving can already foresee.

Zhu guangyan, chief designer of chery's new energy battery system department, told time weekly that the decline is an inevitable trend and not necessarily a bad thing. At present, the development of electric vehicles is still more dependent on national policies and subsidies, and the emphasis on range and energy density has led to a lot of things that may be covered up. After the subsidy goes down, the real competition is strength and technology. When enterprises do not only aim at subsidies, they may adopt more cost-effective and safe solutions.

Rapid industry consolidation

In the previous large-scale subsidy incentive, not only into the electric vehicle manufacturing enterprises mushroomed, including the upstream and downstream supporting enterprises are also springing up everywhere, the reason is similar to cheat subsidy.

Previously, the subsidy for new energy vehicles was large and loose, and there were subsidies in many links of automobile production, and the policy was jointly issued by multiple departments, without effective supervision. As a result, some companies can turn a profit by producing cars, which are churned out in large quantities. Some enterprises cheat in the sales process, build a factory, set up a car rental company, simple assembly "production" electric cars, cheat subsidies, and then sold to their own control of the rental company, then tear down the battery recycling, so repeatedly cheat subsidies.

However, after the fraudulent subsidies were exposed by the media, the fraudulent subsidies of new energy were effectively stopped, and the new energy automobile industry gradually returned to the right track. According to data released by the ministry of industry and information technology, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 122,000 and 119,000 respectively in November 2017, with a year-on-year growth of 70.1% and 83% respectively. From January to November, the cumulative production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 639,000 and 609,000 respectively. The industry forecast that by the end of 2017, 2017 full-year sales will achieve the "" 700,000" "target set at the beginning of the year.

Public opinion previously generally believed that the core of the development of new energy vehicles was the urgent need for breakthroughs in power battery technology. After the new energy cheat subsidy event, the development of power battery has also become an area that the industry needs to review.

Wu feng, an academician at the Chinese academy of engineering, told time weekly: "to increase the driving range of electric cars, high specific energy batteries are needed. In the pursuit of high specific energy, because the heat, which is another problem of how to improve the safety of the battery, will cause the car combustion explosion. The problem of battery safety is not a single factor. The safety and reliability of lithium ion batteries should be improved from multiple perspectives and systematically on the basis of an in-depth and comprehensive understanding of the battery reaction mechanism and associated side reactions in the application environment. This requires a comprehensive solution from a variety of materials, battery design, battery system safety technology.

In fact, the power battery industry is facing more problems due to the rapid development of new energy.

Data show that since 2017, under the dual pressure of the price hike of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream vehicle manufacturers, power battery manufacturers began to experience a "cold winter", and its recent data highlights the difficulties faced by this field.

From January to November 2017, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic new energy vehicle power battery is only 25.23GWh, and experts predict that it will not exceed 35GWh in the whole year of 2017. According to the third-party statistics, the capacity of domestic power battery has exceeded 200GWh in 2017.

Even according to the previous calculation, China's new energy vehicle production can reach 2 million by 2020, and the demand for power lithium battery is only 170Gwh. Therefore, the current power battery production capacity is seriously excess.

Due to the imbalance between market supply and demand, the number of power battery enterprises with supporting products entering the catalogue of the ministry of industry and information technology has dropped from more than 200 in 2016 to more than 90 at present.

Industry insiders believe that the power battery industry is facing a reshuffle, or a large-scale reshuffle has already begun.

Before the porch tech center President, national science and technology achievement transformation fund son new energy vehicles venture investment fund executive business partner and President jian-hua fang had said to the media, although has shrunk by more than half to the outside world is a big adjustment, but it seems to jian-hua fang, this is only the beginning of the adjustment, the elimination game speed will be faster.

Many problems need to be solved

At the same time, in the rapid elimination of power battery enterprises at the same time, more and more vehicle enterprises began to choose their own small and medium-sized power battery enterprises supporting their own products for development, including the emergence of new innovative energy automobile brand enterprises have also chosen the corresponding scale of power battery enterprises.

Industry analysts have pointed out that in the traditional automotive manufacturing supply chain, the main engine plant on the same parts to at least three more suppliers matching supply. At present, in the field of new energy vehicles, power batteries account for 30%-50% of the total cost. For such a key component, the main engine factory also needs more than three suppliers, while the so-called large power battery factory in China does not have more than five.

Jiang ke, an executive with tafir new energy technology in dongguan, told time weekly that the current suppliers of high-quality power batteries are not enough for automakers to choose from. On the one hand, you may find that the production capacity seems to be excessive, but on the other hand, there are many dark horses in the industry. The reason for this contradiction is that there are still few high-quality suppliers available for the car factory. If the car factory wants to establish a robust supply chain, it must develop such a supplier.

The resulting cycle, in a short time caused by the power battery industry is difficult to form a polymerization effect, it seems that the scale of overcapacity, but the overall high quality, high-quality enterprises and products are not many.

It is precisely because of the above ideas of separate administration and separate development that the power battery industry cannot form the national unified fuel specifications of 92# and 95# as in the field of traditional fuel vehicles.

Beijing saide reusing resources research institute co., LTD., managing director of zhao xiaoyong on time weekly reporters that power battery the size of the national standard has been issued in 2017, after two years of game, from more than 500 to declare, until now still have more than 100 kinds, the size of the battery is too many, the resulting from the battery equipment after production start to use recycled many problems are encountered, the yield is also difficult to improve.

While relying on logistics in the field of commercial development, new energy vehicles in 2017 won the big progress, but in the end how development after entering the field of passenger cars, especially after the subsidy TuiPo how market performance, power battery industry would like the expert inside course of study description "power battery industry will make the mistake of photovoltaic industry", this year or a year will be the key to be.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.