In-depth interpretation of the automobile industry investment management regulations on the power battery industry

In recent years, with the support of national policies and market driven, the investment boom in new energy vehicles has been emerging all over the country. However, the development of the new energy vehicle industry varies from place to place. Some places even use subsidies and speculation as gimmick to launch some low-end production capacity in a big stride, which causes great waste of resources in the development process of the new energy vehicle industry and also seriously affects the healthy development of the industry. In order to promote the healthy development of the new energy automobile industry, promote the industrial transformation and upgrading, enhance the core competitiveness, and build the automobile power, the national development and reform commission recently issued the "regulations on the investment management of the automobile industry (draft opinions)" (hereinafter referred to as "draft opinions") to the relevant units. Battery China found, "draft" a number of "high standards" to power battery enterprise demand far exceeds the current level of technology, but considering the policy is generally going to proactive, enterprises in the future of building should be as a benchmark, the "draft" for the transformation and upgrading of power battery industry in China, and enhance the core competitiveness will also has a guiding significance.

The energy density of new or expanded power battery projects is increased to 300 watt-hours/kg

According to article 18 of the draft opinions, the products to be produced in the new vehicle power battery project shall not only meet the relevant national and industrial standards, but also meet the following conditions:

1. The specific energy of the single battery should not be less than 300 watt-hours/kg, and the specific energy of the system should not be less than 220 watt-hours/kg.

Statistics of energy density of ternary battery in 2018 among 42 domestic mainstream battery enterprises

According to China battery network, the requirement in the industry caused the most controversy; currently no domestic mass production battery can reach 300 watt A hour/kg targets. According to the "energy conservation and new energy vehicle technology roadmap" issued by the ministry of industry and information technology of the People's Republic of China, it is also required that the energy density of single battery of pure electric vehicle should reach this target by 2020.

China's chemical and physical power industry association branch of power battery application standardization work, industry, director of research at frequency, said in 2018, our country the ternary lithium battery material is given priority to with 523, 622, still can make it 210-220 square monomer battery energy density w/kg, soft package battery can do 230 watts/kg, cylindrical top can do 253 watts/kg this year. He also expects the 811 to go into mass production in 2019, when the battery will have an energy density of about 250 watt-hours per kilogram.

According to the survey data of battery China website, the main battery energy density (monomers) promoted by domestic mainstream battery manufacturers this year is basically 210-230 watt-hours/kg, and there is still a long way to go before 300 watt-hours/kg. Although some domestic CATL, lishen and guoxuan enterprises can achieve 300 watt-hours/kg technically, they are only completed in the laboratory or in a specific environment at present, and still face multiple challenges such as safety and service life in terms of mass production and market application. In addition, the above three enterprises have adopted the ternary soft package technology route which is easy to achieve high specific energy density at the cell level.

Zhou bo also said that the three packaging technology route, the cylinder in the short term to achieve 300 watt-hour/kg will have some advantages, do not rule out some push cylinder 21700 line of enterprise capacity will be priority line.

According to the requirements of the opinions draft, from the perspective of the current mainstream battery material technology route, lithium iron phosphate battery and lithium manganese acid battery, expansion or new projects are no longer likely to be approved; Ternary power battery will become the main group of the new batch project. However, the emergence of new battery material technology routes, such as lithium-rich manganese and solid-state lithium batteries, cannot be ruled out. However, new technologies still need more market validation.

Some industry experts said, in the existing material system and technical level, the power battery energy density to achieve 300 watt-hours/kg is still more risk, battery enterprises in the design and production, can not only emphasize a certain performance, but to be comprehensive consideration, especially the safety performance. If only from the perspective of curbing low-end production capacity, excessive demand in the formulation of policies may not be conducive to the healthy development of the entire industry.

The feedback of the auto industry investment management regulations (hereinafter referred to as the regulations) has expired on May 25, and insiders expect the official document to be released this year. , analysts say the regulations if this year or next year, it takes time to considering the project from construction to operation, some technical route mature but the energy density of less than 300 watts/kg of the battery project feasibility of fear will reconsider of building, this year is expected to build or expansion of the power battery project will be relatively slow. This also gives foreign battery companies the opportunity to enter the Chinese market, which will have a certain impact on domestic battery companies.

Companies planning new projects, on the other hand, can only ramp up production before the document is officially released. Whether the previously approved projects will be adjusted accordingly due to the official release of this document is not stated.

2. The quick charging ratio of single battery for power vehicle should be no less than 8C, and the residual capacity after 2000 cycles should be no less than 95% of the initial capacity. The quick charging rate of power battery system for power vehicles should be no less than 5C, and the remaining capacity after 1500 cycles should be no less than 95% of the initial capacity.

According to data provided by the power battery application branch of the China chemical and physical power industry association, in 2017, the highest multiplier of the quick charging bus system was 6. 42C, charging rate is mainly concentrated between 3C and 5C. The charging ratio of 5C required by the opinions draft is still reasonable at present.

It is difficult for the market to open up and level the playing field for foreign investment

Article 3 of the draft opinions proposes to adhere to the principle of unified standards for domestic and foreign investment and fair market competition. More and more foreign battery companies will enter the Chinese market as the subsidy for new energy vehicles gradually declines. According to battery China, South Korea's LG, samsung and Japan's panasonic have plans or have started battery-related projects in China. It is reported that some domestic new energy vehicle companies have started cooperation talks with LG and samsung, and panasonic is the only battery supplier of tesla electric cars in the United States. The entry of foreign enterprises into the Chinese market not only has technical advantages, but also has the advantages of brand effect.

Affected by the rising price of upstream raw materials, the cost of domestic power battery enterprises remains high. And the decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles has forced car companies to hold down battery prices, and the gross margin of the power battery industry has fallen to freezing point. At the current technology level, enterprises can only improve their profit margins through economies of scale, which means that they need to reduce costs by expanding production and realizing economies of scale.

According to article 19 of the draft opinions, the capacity utilization rate of vehicle power batteries in the last two years of the current vehicle power battery expansion project is higher than the average level of the whole industry, and no safety accidents have occurred in the production and application of the products.

This means that domestic enterprises will be more restricted than foreign enterprises in the expansion of production, requiring the capacity utilization rate of vehicle power batteries in the last two years to be higher than the average level of the whole industry, which will lead to a significant increase in the barriers for some domestic enterprises to reduce costs through scale effect. However, the new foreign-funded enterprises basically have no such barriers, only need to meet the relevant requirements of article 18 of the draft opinions.

Even two years later, when capacity utilisation is lower than the industry-wide average, foreign companies can still choose to expand elsewhere in the world to achieve economies of scale and cut costs. Compared with global supply chains and foreign companies with a higher degree of internationalization, it is not easy for domestic companies to expand production overseas.

Curb capacity expansion and promote industrial upgrading

According to the draft, the legal entity of the new vehicle power battery project should have a product research and development institution and a professional research and development team with research and development experience. Among them, individual enterprises should master the technology and test verification ability of material research and development, and system enterprises should master the core technology and test verification ability of battery management and thermal management system development.

In order to encourage the development of China's new energy vehicle industry, the Chinese government has issued a number of new energy vehicle subsidy policies in recent years. According to battery China, the guideline aims to standardize new projects of China's power battery industry, guide enterprises with real technical strength to actively develop the power battery industry, and enhance the core competitiveness of China's power battery industry.

According to the draft, the capacity utilization rate of vehicle power batteries in the last two years in the province where the project is located was higher than the national average. This requirement will facilitate the formation of a battery industry to some industries more mature province concentration.

According to the opinion draft, the proposed facilities have a high level of intelligence and can meet the requirements of intelligent manufacturing in plant layout, production line design, intelligent equipment investment, digital information management, production environment control and process control. The production process of the monomer project shall cover the technological processes such as electrode preparation, formation and monomer equipment, and the system project shall be capable of module production, system assembly and testing. According to China battery network learned that Japan and South Korea and other well-known battery enterprises production line has basically fully achieved automation, information and intelligence. The higher the intelligent level of lithium battery equipment is, the better the quality of battery products will be guaranteed. At the same time, the high-end intelligent industry will significantly reduce the production cost and improve the production efficiency, which is an important performance of improving the competitiveness of enterprises. The draft puts forward relevant requirements on the intelligent level of new production lines, which will promote the transformation and upgrading of China's power battery production lines.

According to the draft, new projects should be equipped with a system for recovering vehicle power batteries. On February 26 this year, the ministry of industry and information technology of the People's Republic of China issued the "interim measures for the management of the recycling and utilization of new energy vehicle power batteries", which has clearly defined the corresponding responsibilities of related enterprises in the recycling of power batteries.

Battery China has learned that the draft was released on May 17 and has been closed for comment since May 25. The official document still needs to wait for the requirements of new construction and expanded production of power batteries. However, according to the draft opinions, China is determined to strictly control the blind expansion of power battery production capacity, promote the transformation and upgrading of power battery industry, develop high-end products, and enhance core competitiveness.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.