Why are market shares like BYD being squeezed by giants

On April 23, the data released by zhenli research shows that the concentration of power battery industry is getting higher and higher, some manufacturers fall out of the top 20 rankings, and the market reshuffle intensifies. In the first quarter of the ningde era, the installed capacity of lithium power batteries accounted for half of the total, far exceeding the number two and three byd (002594, SZ) and guoxuan high-tech (002074, SZ). According to the data of equipment installed in March, the top five enterprises accounted for 84.78% of the total. Last year, the top five enterprises accounted for less than 76% of the total. In the first three months of this year, they accounted for more than 78%.

It is worth noting that byd, once the king of power batteries, has begun to prepare its batteries for installation in other car companies after it started to make power batteries for its own use and opened them to the public to cope with the fierce competition. Byd staff told the national business daily that in the future, not only lithium iron phosphate batteries will be sold, but also ternary lithium batteries will be supplied.

One vendor dropped out of the top 20

True lithium research data shows that in March this year, a total of 57 car companies in the country to achieve the installed 2.19GWh.

In terms of the installed capacity of lithium battery suppliers, ningde times ranked first with the installed capacity of 1.1GWh, accounting for 50.33%. However, in March last year, its installed capacity was only 258.48MWh, which increased by more than three times compared with the same period last year. In the second place, byd's installed capacity is 411.90MWh, accounting for 18.83%. Guoxuan high-tech ranked third with 193.64MWh, with a market share of 8.85%.

NCM (nickel-cobalt-manganese) ternary batteries dominate the type of batteries supplied by battery manufacturers, followed by lithium iron phosphate batteries. Among the top 20 battery suppliers for lithium electricity installation in March, 17 supply NCM ternary battery, 8 supply lithium iron phosphate battery, 1 supply lithium manganese acid battery, and no manufacturer supply lithium titanate battery. Last year, the main supplier of lithium titanate was zhuhai yinlong invested by dong mingzhu.

The supply of lithium iron phosphate batteries is mainly concentrated in ningde times and guoxuan high-tech co., LTD., which together account for nearly 90% of the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries. The total installed capacity of NCM ternary battery is mainly provided by ningde times and byd, which together account for more than 70%. The installed capacity of lithium manganate battery is small, and the main supplier is micro macro power. In march, the installed capacity was 8.68mwh, accounting for 80% of the total installed capacity of lithium manganate battery.

Zhang hui, a lithium research analyst, said that after the Spring Festival in March, all enterprises resumed normal production, and the installed capacity increased significantly compared with February. In addition, the implementation of national subsidy policy also reassured enterprises, and the installed capacity of lithium electricity increased positively.

It is worth noting that the power battery industry is increasingly concentrated. In the first quarter, the installed amount of new energy vehicles was 4.54GWh, up by 182.67% year on year. The top three enterprises have occupied more than 70% of the market share. In the same period last year, the top three accounted for just over half.

Since last year, the competition among power battery enterprises has intensified, and the ranking of the top 20 enterprises in terms of installation volume has changed a lot. Even some enterprises have dropped out of the ranking list. For all of last year, Watson, the third largest holding company, disappeared from the top 20 in March.

Squeeze at both ends and you have a monopoly

Really lithium research chief analyst moke believes that this year's market characteristics for a dominant, intensified reshuffle. Last year, he says, was marked by a "squeeze between two ends" -catl (ningde times new energy technology co.) gaining market share rapidly, as well as overall market share gains outside the top 20, with 2-19 vendors falling. The top 20 battery manufacturers have a total installed market share of 86.02%.

However, in the first quarter of this year, the market share of the top five power battery companies has exceeded 80%, and the market share of the top 20 companies is more than 97%. Other battery makers outside the top 20 had a combined market share of 13.98 percent last year, and they Shared less than 3 percent of the market in the first quarter of this year.

Most obviously, the continued growth of market share in the ningde era has squeezed other companies. Byd, for example, although its battery business predates the ningde era, its closed-loop supply model allowed the latter to quickly capture the market, which was surpassed by the ningde era in 2017.

Ningde times cut the price of power battery to seize the market last year, making the average sales price of its power battery system drop by 30% year-on-year, the biggest drop in the past three years. At that time, ningde believed that the decrease of average sales price was mainly due to the rapid increase of power battery capacity in recent years and the adjustment of new energy vehicle subsidy policy.

To cope with such fierce market competition, byd's closed-loop power battery supply chain system has been gradually opened up. On March 31, shen xi, vice general manager of byd's lithium battery business, said at the 2018 pearl river delta future automotive supply chain innovation BBS that byd is working on the business separation of power batteries, which is expected to be completed by the end of 2018 or early 2019. Byd's power battery company will go public independently from 2022 to 2023.

What's more, byd's export business of power batteries has already started. According to an announcement by the ministry of industry and information technology on April 13, a pure electric van and a pure electric truck chassis of dongfeng motor carry the lithium iron phosphate battery produced by byd respectively. One of dongfeng motor's 15 all-electric van carriers and 19 all-electric truck chassis models has batteries supplied by byd.

Byd staff told the national business daily that in the future, not only lithium iron phosphate batteries will be sold, but also ternary lithium batteries will be supplied. However, the official said the specific progress of byd's external cooperation is not clear.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.