Analysis of Supply and Demand Change of Cylinder Lithium Battery

In the first quarter of 2015 to 2016, the lithium battery industry showed extreme performance. New research shows that in 2015, the market for new energy vehicles in China, including battery factories such as Japan, South Korea and China, was full of capacity and accelerated the distribution of battery production capacity in China. The production capacity of cylindrical lithium batteries in IT(information technology) applications is gradually squeezed by power batteries, and there is a shortage in the second half of the year. However, since January this year, China has successively issued measures to rectify subsidies for new energy vehicles, so that the market attitude has turned to wait and see, and the demand for power batteries has decreased, easing the production capacity crowding effect on IT lithium batteries.

The industry said that in the fourth quarter of 2015, the supply of IT cylindrical batteries was in short supply and prices stopped falling. It is estimated that the price of IT cylindrical batteries in the first quarter of this year will have the opportunity to increase. The success of the subsequent transformation into the seller's market will depend on the policy direction of China's new energy vehicles.

In terms of polymer batteries, price wars were still visible in the fourth quarter of last year due to the active lowering of prices by Chinese second-tier suppliers to enter the market. However, in the first quarter of this year, with the input of new entrants, prices still have the opportunity to decline.

In the first quarter of this year, the price of square batteries was only routine fluctuations of about -2 to 3 %, despite the fact that the permeability has not been raised.

The Chinese power battery entered the industry to rectify and the product safety was taken seriously

China's new energy vehicle subsidy standards were originally planned to be reduced by 20 % from 2016 to 2018, by 40 % from 2019 to 2020, and to be completely stopped after 2020. However, the ministry of finance suspended subsidies for new-energy vehicles in January, then announced the renewal in early March, and set local government subsidies to regulate the scope of regulation. The Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology also claimed that considering the issue of power battery safety, the suspension of the ternary lithium battery passenger car was included in the list of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles, and various administrative measures caused industry to be shocked.

China has continuously guided the localization of key materials for battery cores, and has used energy density as an index for industrial upgrading. Under the pressure of decreasing the subsidy year by year, the manufacturer tries to upgrade the product efficiency to reduce the cost. At present, the single energy density of lithium-ion batteries has reached more than 180 watt-hours per kilogram, and the single unit cost has dropped below 2RMB/Wh. Although the planning goal was achieved in advance, it ignored the important performance of the battery core in safety and life, resulting in safety problems in passenger vehicles, buses and other vehicles in recent years. In particular, niche models such as micro cars that have been partially picked up are subsidies for double 100(100 km/h, 100 km endurance), and they do not hesitate to adopt lightweight vehicle platforms for modification, and the safety is even more worrying.

Lvlishun pointed out that although China has recently raised the threshold for subsidies, product specifications and other stringent, the market is worried about the future of Chinese electric vehicles, but if you carefully review the relevant policies, you can see that the Chinese government is undergoing industrial restructuring. It is hoped that through more delayed subsidy policies and product specifications to promote industrial upgrading, so that the maturity of electric vehicles can compete with traditional gasoline vehicles. Although the Chinese government has created a short-term industrial boom through subsidies, in the long term, it still needs to promote industrial development and upgrading in a way that guides rather than promotes it, in order to make up for its backward situation in the gasoline car market and seize the opportunity of the electric vehicle market.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.