Value chain analysis of lithium ion batteries

This article is an excerpt from the article "LithiumionbatteryvaluechainandrelatedopportunitiesforEurope" published by the European Union Joint Research Center (JRC) in 2017. It introduces the lithium-ion battery raw materials and processing materials, battery components, battery manufacturing, and electric vehicle manufacturing.

1. Raw materials and processing materials

Lithium ion batteries such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese, aluminum, copper, silicon, tin, titanium, and various forms of carbon, such as natural graphite these elements are recovered from raw materials mined from the earth's crust or from surface water.

The European Commission publishes a list of CRM (Critical Raw Materials) reviewed and updated every three years. The new CRM list is expected to be released in 2017.

1.1 Cobalt

Cobalt is used in many industrial applications such as batteries, superalloys, hard materials - carbides, diamond tools, pigments, catalysts, magnets, etc. In these applications, the battery accounts for the largest share, which is equivalent to about 37%, in lithium ion batteries, cobalt is a major cathode active material component.

The world's terrestrial cobalt resources have been discovered to be approximately 25 million tons, more than 120 million tons of cobalt have been found in manganese nodules and shells in the Atlantic, Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. At the beginning of 2016, the world's cobalt reserves were estimated at 71 million tons. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is the world's largest source of cobalt, providing 51% of the total cobalt market, followed by China and Russia.

The vast majority of cobalt imported from the EU comes from Russia (96%). The substitutability of cobalt is very low.

1.2 Natural graphite

Natural graphite has many industrial applications: electrodes, refractories, lubricants, foundries and batteries (as anode active materials). The share of battery applications is relatively low at 4%.

It is concluded that the world's recoverable graphite resources exceed 800 million tons, and natural graphite reserves are estimated at 230,000 tons. The production of natural graphite is highly concentrated in China, accounting for 66% of global production, India accounting for 14% and Brazil accounting for 7%. Most of the natural graphite imported into the EU comes from China (57%), followed by Brazil (15%) and Norway (9%). Natural graphite is relatively inexpensive to replace in some applications, but it is feasible to replace natural graphite with other materials in the battery.

It is predicted that there will be a large amount of overproduction in the natural graphite market in 2020.

1.3 Silicon metal

Silicon metal is widely used in the chemical, pigment, metallurgical and electronics industries. Silicon and silicon alloys are also used as anode active materials for lithium-ion battery cells, but the current share of this application is negligible compared to other applications.

The world of silicon metal and alloys is rich in resources to meet the needs of the world for decades. Silicon sources are various natural forms of silica, such as quartzite. In 2015, the world's silicon metal production reached 8,100 tons, and production was highly concentrated. China's output was 68%, Russia's 8%, the United States' 5%, and Norway's 4%. Most of the silicon metal imported into the EU comes from Norway (38%), followed by Brazil (24%), China (8%) and Russia (7%). Silicon metal has (very) low substitutability for all applications.

It is predicted that the silicon metal market will remain in balance in 2020.

1.4 Lithium

Although lithium is not a key ingredient, it is an important part of lithium-ion batteries. The average abundance of lithium in the earth's crust is relatively high, at 17 ppm, making it the 27th most abundant element in the lithosphere. Global lithium reserves are estimated at 1.24 billion tons.

Lithium resources are mainly distributed in South America, especially Argentina, Chile, Bolivia and Brazil, of which 55% of global lithium resources are located in South America. China has the largest lithium resources in Asia (about 5.3 million tons), equivalent to about 12% of global lithium resources, the EU has a limited share of global lithium resources just under 400,000 tons, a unique deposit of lithium borosilicate was discovered in Serbia in 2004. The North American region has identified a large amount of resources, nearly 6 million tons. More than half of them are located in the United States, equivalent to nearly 8% of global lithium resources.

The actual global supply market for lithium products is about 200,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) (1 kg LCE = 0.1895 kg lithium), and nearly 83% comes from four major producers: Albemarle (USA), SQM (Chile), FMC ( United States) and Sichuan Tianqi (China), the main regions are located in Chile, Australia, Argentina and China.

In 2015, lithium-ion batteries consumed around 40% of global LCE production, 14% of which was used in electric vehicle battery packs, forecasts for 2025 show that electric vehicles will require 200,000 tons of LCE, equivalent to the current global supply of LCE.

2. Battery components

2.1 Cathode material

Aluminum foil is used as a current collector for the cathode of a lithium ion battery. The market leader in foil production for battery applications is Sumitomo Light Industries (JP) and Japanese Foil Manufacturing (JP).

Composite transition metal oxides and phosphates are currently the primary cathode active materials for lithium ion batteries. These include: lithium cobalt oxide (LCO), lithium manganese manganese oxide (NMC), lithium nickel cobalt oxide (NCA), manganese manganese oxide (LMO), and lithium iron phosphate (LFP). In addition to LCO, all of these materials are currently used in automotive lithium-ion batteries. In 2015, the total demand for cathode materials in lithium-ion batteries was about 140,000 tons. It is estimated that approximately 25% of the cathode active materials in the world are used in lithium ion batteries of HEV, PHEV and EV.

The production of cathode active materials is dominated by Asia. In 2015, China produced 39% of all cathode materials, Japan produced 19%, and Korea produced 7%.

Companies such as BASF (DE), Dow (US), 3M (US), DuPont (US), Mitsubishi (JP) and LG Chem (KR) have recently shown interest in the market.

The market for cathode active materials is expected to grow from approximately 140,000 tons in 2015 to 400,000 tons in 2025. NMC (nearly 5 times growth), NCA (about 3 times growth) and LMO (2.4 times growth) are expected.

2.2 Anode material

Copper foil is used as a current collector for the anode in a lithium ion battery. The market leaders in copper foil production are Furukawa Electric (JP), Japanese Foil Manufacturing (JP) and Japanese Electrolysis (JP).

Various carbonaceous materials such as natural and artificial graphite, amorphous carbon, tin and silicon oxide alloys, and lithium titanate (LTO) are used as the anode active material.

The total market for anode materials for lithium-ion batteries exceeded 76,000 tons in 2015. Between 2005 and 2015, the anode materials market for lithium-ion batteries generated revenues of $1 billion and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14%.

About 40% of the world's major anode active material demand (about 30,400 tons) is used in lithium-ion batteries for HEV, PHEV and BEV.

Historically, the production of anode active materials has been dominated by Japan and China. Hitachi Chemical (JP) accounts for 34%, Japan Carbon (JP) accounts for 19% and BTR Energy (CN) accounts for 12%. Other producers of anode active materials include Mitsubishi Chemical (JP), LSMtron Carbonics (KR), Shanshan Technology (CN), and East Sea Carbon (JP).

Companies located in the European Union, such as SGL (DE), Imerys (CH), Heraeus (DE), and 3M (United States), DuPont (US), Dow (US), Dow Corning (US), Envi (US), ShinEtsu (JP) has recently shown interest in the market for anode active materials for lithium-ion batteries, but currently does not play an important role in global supply.

The market for anode active materials is expected to reach more than 250,000 tons at 2025.

2.3 Electrolyte

The global lithium-ion electrolyte market total was slightly higher than 62,000 tons in 2015.

The electrolyte market for HEV, PHEV and BEV batteries has grown rapidly between 2010 and 2015, and the electrolyte demand for these applications has increased from approximately 200 tons in 2010 to 20,500 tons in 2015.

Similar to cathode and anode active materials, the production of lithium-ion battery electrolytes is dominated by Asian suppliers. China's current production is close to 60% (by weight), 18% in Japan and 14% in Korea. The EU's electrolyte producer BASF (DE) produced 200 tons of electrolytes in 2014, accounting for about 0.4% of the total market in the year, but the supply fell sharply in 2015.

The market competition is very fierce, Chinese companies are expanding rapidly, and other companies are slowing down and even falling. CapChem, one of China's largest electrolyte producers, produced 8,600 tons of electrolytes in 2015, becoming the global market leader, accounting for 14% of the total electrolyte market. Zhangjiagang Guotai Huarong (GTHR) (CN) produced 8,000 tons of electrolytes in 2015 to become the world's second largest electrolyte supplier, accounting for 13% of the total electrolyte market share. In contrast, South Korea (such as Panax-Etec), Japan (such as Mitsui Chemicals and Ube) electrolyte producers have a current market share decline.

New entrants to the global lithium-ion battery electrolyte market are companies such as LG Chem (KR), DuPont (US) and Daikin (JP).

On a global scale, electrolyte production of lithium-ion batteries is currently in overcapacity. Currently less than half of the available production capacity is currently used in Japan and Korea, while in the US and Europe, only 5% and 1% respectively.

The electrolyte market is expected to grow from the current 62,000 tons to more than 235,000 tons in 2025.

2.4 Separator

The market value of lithium ion battery separators in 2015 was approximately 900Mm2.

Similar to cathode and anode active materials and electrolytes, the lithium-ion battery separator market is dominated by Asia, with Japan currently accounting for 48% of total market supply, China accounting for 17%, and South Korea accounting for 10%. Market leaders are Asahi Kasei (JP), Toray (JP) and SK (KR). The US separator market is also strong. In 2015, Celgard's market share was 9% and Entek was 3%.

The EU's Evonik (DE) is one of the new entrants to the separator market. Litarion (DE) has the manufacturing capacity to produce lithium-ion battery electrodes and ceramic separators, but the actual production in 2015 is unknown.

The market for lithium-ion battery separators is expected to continue to grow steadily, with a CAGR of approximately 12%. In 2025, the market size reached 2,700 Mm2.

2.5 Future Cell Chemistry

Chemicals that are considered to have potential to transcend contemporary lithium-ion batteries include: a) lithium metal (Li metal) batteries, b) solid state batteries (SSB), c) lithium-sulfur (Li-S) batteries, d) lithium air (lithium) -air) battery.

Lithium metal: has a capacity more than ten times that of the LiC6 anode used in current lithium ion batteries, particularly a battery based on Li metal anode.

Solid state battery: Use solid electrolyte (SE) (inorganic or polymer) instead of liquid solid state battery (SSB). The SE allows for the transfer of only lithium ions and acts as a functional separator. The main disadvantage of many inorganic SEs is their low thermodynamic stability. Most solid electrolytes are susceptible to degradation at low potentials (eg, by lithium metal).

Li-S: Lithium batteries based on abundant sulfur, large-capacity sulfur-containing cathodes and lithium anodes are considered to be one of the most promising candidates for low-cost and high-energy density systems.

Lithium air: Lithium air batteries that use oxygen in the air have the highest theoretical energy density of all battery technologies, reaching 3,500 watt-hours per kilogram.

3. Battery manufacturing

Total sales of lithium-ion batteries in 2015 were approximately $5.6 billion (equivalent to approximately 60 GWh). From 2005 to 2015, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of sales and value reached 22% and 15%, respectively.

In the early 1990s, Sony took the lead in commercializing lithium-ion batteries. The surge in demand for portable electronic devices has driven the corresponding demand for high performance lithium-ion batteries. Asian battery manufacturers are dominant in this market. Asian companies, especially Samsung SDI (KR), LG Chem (KR), Sanyo Matsushita (JP), Sony (JP) and BYD (CN), dominated the manufacture of lithium-ion batteries.

Battery manufacturers for automotive applications include Panasonic (JP), Samsung SDI (KR), LG Chem (KR), AESC (JP), GSYuasa (JP), Li Energy Japan (JP), BYD (CN), Wanxiang (CN) ), Tianjin Lishen (CN) and Toshiba (JP)

According to the US Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center (CEMAC), in 2014, the global manufacturing capacity of all applications of lithium-ion batteries was about 76.3GWh, and 88% of its manufacturing capacity was located in Japan, China and South Korea. In 2014, the production capacity of automotive lithium-ion batteries was 27.5GWh, of which 79% were located in Asia.

According to AvicenneEnergy, the global production capacity of all lithium-ion batteries used in 2015 was about 100 GWh, of which 40 GWh was portable lithium-ion batteries.

The EU has no significant manufacturing capacity for lithium-ion batteries, and published capacity and actual production data vary from source to source:

a) According to the US Clean Energy Manufacturing Analysis Center (CEMAC), its report is based on data from Bloomberg New Energy Finance Corporation (BNEF). In 2014, the total production capacity of lithium-ion batteries in Europe was nearly 1.8GWh (equivalent to 2% of global production capacity). Among them, the annual production capacity of automotive lithium-ion batteries is 1.3GWh (equivalent to 5% of the global automotive lithium-ion battery production capacity).

b) The German national electric platform "German national electric vehicle production platform" pointed out that the EU's production capacity of large-scale lithium-ion batteries in the field of automotive and energy storage in 2002 was 1.5GWh/year.

b) According to the analysis of AvicenneEnergy, the production capacity of lithium-ion batteries in Europe in 2015 is close to 1.5GWh, distributed among some smaller producers.

Compared with Asian counterparts, the number and relative size of European lithium-ion battery manufacturers are significantly smaller. The situation of these manufacturers is as follows.

SAFT, recently taken over by Total, is currently the largest active European producer of lithium-ion batteries in Europe. Its manufacturing facility in Nersac, France has a production capacity of 60 MWh/year. However, the actual production of SAFT was 84MWh in 2015. SAFT batteries are used in a variety of applications such as space, military and aircraft.

Recently EnerSys acquired the ABSL power solution manufacturer in Culham, England, a European manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries for space applications.

AGMBatteries Ltd., located in Thurso, UK, develops and manufactures rechargeable lithium-ion batteries and non-rechargeable lithium batteries. With a production capacity of 50 MWh, it supplies lithium-ion batteries to a range of markets including the defense, oil and gas markets.

Leclanché in Switzerland operates a production plant in Willst?tt (DE), where it produces lithium-ion batteries for energy storage applications. The manufacturing capacity of this factory is currently 100MWh.

EAS Germany GmbH, based in Nordhausen, Germany, manufactures cylindrical batteries and is currently deployed in space,special, marine and automotive applications in Europe, Asia and North America. The production capacity of the equipment is 100MWh/year, while the actual production in 2015 is 40MWh.

Litarion GmbH, a subsidiary of Electrovaya in Kamenz (DE), is a supplier of lithium-ion batteries for mobile and stationary energy storage and other applications. In addition, Litarion has the manufacturing capabilities to produce critical components for electrodes and high performance lithium-ion batteries. The company's production capacity is 500MWh / year, and the actual production in 2015 is about 25MWh. ?

Located in Itzehoe (DE), ItzehoeGmbH produces lithium-ion batteries for a variety of applications and formats. The company's production capacity is 20MWh / year, and the actual production in 2015 is 1MWh.

Kelheim (DE)'s SSLEnergieGmbH produces lithium-ion batteries for energy storage solutions for telecommunications and industrial equipment as well as electric vehicle applications (land and water). The facility's production capacity is 0.1 MWh/year, while actual production in 2015 is negligible.

LiaconGmbH is located in Itzehoe (DE) and has a large lithium titanate polymer battery production plant.

Located in Ellwangen (DE), VARTAMicrobatteryGmbH is a microbattery manufacturer and one of the market leaders in hearing aid batteries and nickel-metal hydride and lithium-ion batteries. ?

Varkaus (FI) develops and manufactures large rechargeable lithium-ion batteries that power hybrid and electric drive trains. The company's production capacity is 30MWh / year, and the actual production in 2015 is 1MWh.

Advanced Lithium System Europe S.A. (ALSES.A.) has a manufacturing facility in Xanthi (GR) that produces lithium-ion batteries for use in defense applications, such asspeciales. The production capacity of the equipment is 100MWh/year, and the actual production in 2015 is 0.1MWh.

Bolloré (FR) produces a special type of lithium-ion battery - a solid-state battery with a Li-metal anode. Bolloré (FR) has a battery capacity of 500 MWh per year and an actual production of 120 MWh in 2015.

Due to high production costs, by the end of 2015, Daimler subsidiary Lettek (DE) stopped production of lithium-ion batteries, marking the closure of the only manufacturer of EV batteries in Germany. According to BNEF data, the plant's production capacity is 480MWh.

Renault CEA (French Atomic Energy and Alternative Energy Commission) and Nissan plan to establish a plant in Flins, France, to produce automotive lithium-ion batteries with an annual production capacity of 100,000. Currently only one battery assembly line is operational. Renault Nissan announced that it will establish an advanced electric vehicle lithium-ion battery plant in Caxia (Aveiro, Portugal) in 2012, which will produce 50,000 batteries per year. However, this plan has not been carried out.

At the same time, mature Asian battery manufacturers are planning to establish a lithium-ion battery production line in the EU. For example, LG Chem (KR) plans to establish a production plant in Poland (most likely in Wroclaw) with an annual production capacity of 50,000 lithium-ion car batteries. Samsung SDI (KR) has started producing lithium-ion batteries (batteries, modules) in Jaszfenyszaru, Hungary.

The lithium-ion battery market is expected to grow rapidly in the next few years. By 2020, the market value will reach 28.5 billion US dollars. According to AvicenneEnergy, the market value reached $35.5 billion by 2025.

The battery pack is a key component of the EV powertrain, accounting for around 30% of the total value of the car. The market value of lithium-ion battery packs for all applications in 2015 exceeded $2 billion. The market value of automotive battery packs is expected to grow to about $21.3 billion in 2020 and $27.3 billion in 2025.

5. Electric vehicle manufacturing

In 2015, more than 68.5 million passenger cars were produced around the world. Of these, 24%, or more than 16.5 million passenger cars, are produced in the EU.

In recent years, the technology of hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) has been quite mature. In 2014, a total of 1.9 million HEVs were sold worldwide, and in 2015, 1.8 million HEVs were sold. Most HEVs are sold in Japan (nearly 60% of global sales) and the US (about 22% of global sales). In Europe, about 234,000 HEVs were sold in 2015, accounting for 1.5% of total car sales. Historically and currently, the main producer and supplier of HEV is Toyota (JP), whose market share in HEV global sales reached nearly 70% in 2014 and 2015. Most of the HEV models of Toyota and Lexus currently use NiMH traction batteries, but the general market trend is that NiMH traction batteries will gradually be replaced by lithium-ion batteries. AvicenneEnergy predicts that by 2020, 50% of HEVs will be equipped with lithium-ion batteries, and by 2025, 90% of HEVs will be equipped with lithium-ion batteries.

In the past few years, the production and sales of PHEVs and BEVs have grown rapidly. The sales figures quoted vary by source. For example, in 2014, global PHEVs and BEVs sold 89000 and 318,000-390,000 respectively. In 2014, the PHEV and BEV sold in the EU ranged from 71,000 to 100,000. This number doubled in 2015 to between 150,000 and 193,500 units, equivalent to 27% to 35% of global PHEV and BEV sales. However, it must be pointed out here that PHEV and BEV penetration rates vary widely in regions around the world and even in EU member states. Norway, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden and other countries and the United States have a higher proportion of electric vehicles on the road (higher than 12 respectively) 12%, 8%, 1.7% and 1.9%).

In 2015, the United States Tesla S is the best-selling model in PHEV and BEV worldwide, with a market share of approximately 11%. Following Tesla are two Japanese producers - Nissan Leaf (9% global market share) and Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV (9% market share)

Among the PHEV and BEV models in Europe, BMWi3, Renault Zoe and Volkswagen Golf GTE ranked fifth, seventh and tenth respectively in the world, and both entered the top 20 global sales in 2015.

In Europe, the Mitsubishi Outlander is the best-selling model (about 16% of PHEV and BEV sales), followed by Renault Zoe (10%), Volkswagen Golf GTE (9%), Tesla S (9%) and Nissan Leaf. (8%).

Among European OEMs, BMW has announced a new strategy and its electric vehicle business is expected to grow further. A new version of BMWi3 will be launched in 2017 with a distance of approximately 200 kilometers and its price is expected to be less than $50,000. Renault has announced the launch of a new version of the Renault ZOE in 2017, with a range of up to 300 kilometers. The price is around $35,000.

In the next two years alone, Daimler has invested 7 billion euros in green technology. As part of this strategy, Mercedes-Benz will expand its PHEV production in 2018, with all models priced above $50,000. Daimler will also launch the new SmartForTwo electric car in 2017, with a range of 100 kilometers and its price is expected to be well below $30,000.

Volkswagen has determined that it will launch more than 20 electric models by 2020, but has not announced specific models. Audi announced the launch of the first large electric vehicle series based on the PHEV Audi e-tron concept by 2018. However, the model has not yet been released.

Outside Europe, other automotive OEMs are proposing several electric models that will be launched in the next 2-3 years.

Tesla is expected to launch Tesla 3 in 2018 at a price of less than $40,000 and travel more than 300 kilometers.

General Motors will launch the Chevrolet Bolt in 2017 for less than $40,000 and travel more than 300 kilometers. Ford will not try to compete with two other US OEMs, but will offer about 150 kilometers of light vehicles at a more affordable price, priced below $30,000.

Among Japanese OEMs, Nissan will launch the Nissan Leaf update in 2018-2019 with a driving distance of 300 kilometers and an estimated price of less than $40,000. Prior to this, the Nissan Leaf version is expected to have a driving distance of 150 kilometers in 2017, and the price is higher than $30,000.

Mitsubishi has announced the launch of its new eXSUV model in 2018-2019, with a range of more than 300 kilometers and a price of less than $40,000.

South Korean vehicle manufacturer Hyundai and its sister company Kia have jointly developed an ambitious plan to become the world's second-largest green car manufacturer by 2020 (the first is Toyota Japan). Hyundai is producing a new all-electric SUV with a range of 150 kilometers. Hyundai also announced the launch of Ioniq in 2017, with a range of more than 150 kilometers and a price of less than $35,000. Kia is preparing to launch a new version of the Kia Soul Electric BEV in 2018, with a range of nearly 150 kilometers and an estimated price of about $35,000.

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