What is the future trend of nickel price?

Nearly a month to nickel prices appear continued to pull up, nickel prices finally broke through 100000 points near the platform, all the way to stop and begin to adjust after 120000, the recent economic data released in succession and downstream terminal data showed that nickel fundamentals remain good, give priority to in order to meet more complete operation in the future.

The rising power mainly from stainless steel, terminal inventory decline display terminal recovery from increased rapidly, while the upstream year-on-year, fell for environmental protection check reason, so a go between for the little need much further push up prices.And macro economic data have shown the domestic economy growth is better than expected, nickel overlay Shanghai main contract in month pressure of crowded warehouse, nickel at this time, apparently, is a very good publicity.

But since last year's growth power new energy automobile power end receded, investigate its reason, mainly nickel sulfate capacity than expected expansion since last year.Into the middle of march this year, the situation of oversupply of beans makes nickel and nickel sulfate processing spreads fell to 3000 yuan/tons, while processing the middle value at about 6000 yuan/ton.

At the same time, rising prices although in theory should make nickel consumption decreased, nickel beans should be considered at this stage but actually inventory problem.Learned from some nickel traders, in particular, there are a lot of nickel sulfate factory early worry about rising prices, hoarding more than normal nickel beans more than twice and less than the amount of inventory, in nickel prices rise and the price of nickel sulfate basically remain unchanged or slightly decreased cases, nickel sulfate factory direct sale nickel beans, instead, to a certain extent promoted the consumption of nickel.Three yuan factory at the same time the dips purchasing nickel sulfate, some factory inventories even reached the level of 2 to 3 months, 1 month inventory was far more than the normal level.On the other hand, in the industry battery integration of share has been continuously expanded, and the integration of cost advantage in the backlog of nickel sulfate also consumption space.Under the action of several factors together, nickel sulfate prices began to appear weak.

So now the question is, the ternary material of nickel prices drive in?This driver can also pushed up prices?

May look from the most intuitionistic terminal consumption, new energy vehicle sales year-on-year growth of 140%, year-on-year growth in April also reached 30%, and 1 to 5 month sales volume is increased 1.4 times, so the terminal consumption are growing more than expected in the near future, the upstream nickel sulfate need pulling power is very strong.

But at the same time, nickel sulfate industry itself exists inherent emerging industry too fast, the capacity expansion of industrial chain is too long.Nickel sulfate production capacity, rapid expansion has made nickel sulfate processing net profit fell into negative territory, and new energy battery specifications and standards of the industry are also not fully unified and bargaining power higher than the upstream, downstream and automobile industry inventory is basic to the ternary material battery factory side, three yuan expensive material itself, capital intensive industry and the situation of supply is greater than demand caused by the ternary material side inventories continue to nickel sulfate and accumulation is the tendency of the future of new energy automotive industry within the latest consolidation in nickel sulfate is likely.At the same time, the need of battery production integration requires the upstream industry mergers and acquisitions, the strong demand new energy vehicles will speed up the process.From this perspective, the nickel sulfate end during the period of industry consolidation, new energy vehicles for nickel prices pull will there is a certain lag and weakened.

But in the long run, industry consolidation is internal adjustment, the overall demand is still in, then the corresponding demand growth will eventually be reflected in the upstream raw material prices, the industry integration and industrial chain each link capacity of integrated efficiency affects the efficiency of the supply and demand prices reflect.Simply from the perspective of quantitative calculation, the 140% increase in the current new energy vehicles need to carry the growth of around 100% nickel sulfate, just the data currently nickel sulfate by more than 50% growth, even 75% growth expectations are still in a reasonable range, the ternary material capacity corresponding growth may be rising prices instead of the next driving factors.

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