The development trend and supporting structure of power battery are briefly described

Recently, the ministry of commerce on its website, the "Shanghai automotive group co., LTD and ningde era of new energy technology co., LTD. Set up a new joint venture", according to the public, saic and the joint venture set up two companies ningde era: saic motor power battery co., LTD and saic age power battery systems co., LTD., the era of saic power battery co., LTD is mainly engaged in lithium-ion batteries, lithium polymer battery development, production and sales and after-sales service, focusing on the deep research in the field of electrochemical batteries; Saic times power battery system co., ltd. is mainly engaged in the development, production and sales of power battery modules and systems, while focusing on the research in the field of automotive and dynamics.

The cooperation between saic and ningde times has drawn attention from the industry to the competition in the industry chain of new energy vehicles and the supply of power batteries. After the release of China's medium - and long-term development plan for the automobile industry, local governments have accelerated the industrialization of new energy vehicles. With the ministry of industry and corporate average fuel consumption and new energy automobile integral parallel management interim measures "(draft), 2018, 2019, 2020 new energy vehicles ratio to 8%, 10%, 12%, according to conservative estimates, domestic new energy automobile market next year will release of production capacity of about 1 million vehicles, which will drive power battery enterprises capacity of synchronous release.

The joint venture and cooperation between oems and power battery enterprises have created a new industry pattern of cross-boundary integration and development for the large-scale promotion and application of new energy vehicles and the joint exploration of blue ocean, and also sounded the horn of industrial chain competition. Regarding this important trend, we combine the new energy automobile industry development situation, the power battery matching rule, the pattern proposed some own views.

First, power battery joint venture cooperation is the inevitable development of the industry

As for the traditional automobile, "whoever gets the engine gets the whole vehicle", because the power system is the core lifeblood of the automobile. For new energy vehicles, power battery is the inevitable choice of differentiated competition for the whole vehicle enterprises, and "get power battery" means to win the sustainable development and avoid homogenization competition.

In the era of traditional fuel vehicles, domestic and foreign passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles enterprises have their own engines, and are through mastering the engine core components, key core components of the production process, to ensure the core competitiveness of the brand and profit. And under the wave of new energy vehicle development, the core power assembly is no longer a engine, gearbox, but big SanDian of battery, motor, electric control system, the technology is still in rapid iteration, costs and profits accounted for the highest battery is a top priority, therefore, the same is bound to through the way of self-built or joint venture, master the core supporting high quality batteries. Considering the choice of technical route and the characteristics of the electrochemical field of the cell, it is expected that the popularity of the joint venture or strategic cooperative relationship between the following oems and the first-line battery enterprises will continue to increase. Because the cost of power battery is the highest and the profit is relatively high, the whole vehicle and power battery enterprises must pursue competitiveness and profit and keep developing.

We might as well compare and analyze the cost proportion of passenger cars/commercial vehicles and engines, as well as the cost proportion of new energy vehicles and power batteries.

1. Cost structure of parts for fuel passenger cars

Combined with an automobile enterprise has announced a car parts proportion, the traditional fuel passenger car engine cost accounted for about 15%, the proportion of one of the highest. In fact, domestic mainstream passenger car enterprises, whether state-owned, joint venture, private car enterprises, are their own vehicle enterprises, engine enterprises, even transmission enterprises, which means that the engine is the core parts of the vehicle enterprises must consider control or have.

2. Cost structure of parts for fuel commercial vehicles

Traditional fuel commercial vehicle engine cost accounted for about 23%, the highest proportion. Moreover, the engine production capacity determines the vehicle scale effect to a large extent, and beiqi foton and shangyihong are typical enterprises. Since entering the heavy truck industry, beiqi foton has been purchasing engines such as weichai by integrating social resources. Its vehicle sales volume has always been in the second tier, ranking behind sinotruk, faw, dongfeng and shaanxi automobile. With the further expansion of enterprise scale, baic foton has increased the cooperation with Daimler and cummins, etc. Since 2015, baic foton has entered the first echelon of heavy truck industry in terms of the production and sales scale of complete vehicles. Since the 20th century, the production and sales scale of shangyi red has kept 10,000 to 30,000 yuan for a long time, which is largely subject to the bottleneck of matching engine procurement. Visible, commercial car engine is crucial to whole car business likewise.

3. Cost structure of new energy automobile parts

The biggest cost of electric vehicles is in the battery, motor, electronic control "three electricity" system, among which the cost of power battery is the first. Domestic and foreign new energy automobile industry giants tesla and BYD have strategically expanded their power battery plants to ensure the corresponding production capacity. In fact, the production and sales scale of these two electric vehicle enterprises rank top in the world, while the installed capacity of BYD power battery ranks top in China and even the world. The market for new energy vehicles is also expanding as the battery industry gains momentum.

At present, the domestic power battery technology continues to progress, the battery quality division gradually improved, the cost difference under the scale advantage is also increasing, the industry concentration is gradually increased, the emergence of oligarchic competition. According to market statistics, the CR5 of the power battery industry was 59% in 2015 and increased to 68% in 2016. The concentration of battery enterprises accelerated, and the trend of joint oems was irreversible. From the perspective of joint venture and cooperation dynamics, baic has joint ventures with South Korea's SK and guoxin high-tech, A123 has joint ventures with saic and gac, and mainstream battery enterprises have increasingly close cooperative relations with well-known vehicle enterprises. This joint venture between saic and ningde era will further catalyze the industry's strong alliance.

Ii. Characteristics of power battery supporting pattern

1. Power battery supporting pattern of international passenger car enterprises

At present, the supporting suppliers of global power battery are mainly concentrated in Japan, South Korea and China. American new energy vehicles are matched with power battery products from Japan and South Korea. Tesla is preparing to build its own super power battery factory. European new energy vehicles are matched with the leading power battery products from Japan, South Korea and China. These oems have selected at least 2-3 power cell suppliers for their pure electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles.

According to the competitive situation of international lithium battery supporting vehicle manufacturers, tesla, byd and nissan lead in the sales of their models, leading the number of Panasonic, byd batteries and AESC batteries injected by supporting suppliers, while other power battery companies have relatively low product matching rate. The international power battery supporting structure presents obvious brand spillover effect. With the improvement of product quality and the growth of industrial scale in China, it is expected that the competition and supporting structure of the power battery industry will present new changes in the future.

2, domestic passenger car enterprises power battery supporting pattern

Looked from the situation in our country, the domestic new energy automobile power battery enterprises are numerous, passenger car power battery customization requirement enhances unceasingly, at present the main suppliers have CATL, byd, universal A123, first, the porch high-tech, lishen, bick, amd, fluoride, etc., in addition to the cylindrical battery, square aluminum battery has become most enterprise choice.

It can be seen from table 2 that domestic new energy passenger car power batteries mainly come from CATL, BYD and wanxiang A123, among which BYD models are matched with its holding BYD power battery. CATL has a close cooperation relationship with baic and saic, which is matched with the sales growth of these three auto companies. Changan, chery and other main engine manufacturers choose different power battery enterprises based on comprehensive factors such as product quality, supporting radius, product differentiation and product cost. Supporting scale is relatively small and supporting stability is relatively insufficient.

3. Power battery supporting pattern of domestic commercial vehicle enterprises

In terms of power battery supporting for new energy buses, according to the scale and sales of Top10 electric bus enterprises in China in 2016, the first echelon of battery suppliers for commercial vehicles are byd and CATL, the second echelon is vatma, guoxuan and lishen, and the third echelon is bic, wanxiang, avic lithium battery, prad and mengguli. From the perspective of main engine manufacturers, yutong and BYD, which are the leading manufacturers in terms of domestic production and marketing scale, generally choose power battery enterprises, while zhongtong, nanjing jinlong and other enterprises mostly choose 2-3 battery suppliers.

4. Industry characteristics of domestic power battery

In terms of domestic new energy vehicle power battery supporting pattern, the supporting situation of main engine factory and power battery factory has the following characteristics:

In addition to BYD, passenger car enterprises do not have absolute control of power battery enterprises, and the Top10 new energy automobile enterprises choose a number of supporting suppliers. The depth of cooperation needs to be strengthened.

The new energy passenger car and the passenger car form a complete set the power battery has the general complete set product, also has the passenger car special power battery product;

A large number of power battery suppliers, but also to a number of main engine manufacturers to provide support, a single power battery enterprise supporting scale is small;

BYD and CATL are in the first echelon. The strategic adjustment of their corporate development will affect the development and joint venture cooperation of battery companies in each echelon to a certain extent.

The deep cooperation between oems and power battery enterprises is the trend of The Times.

Iii. Thoughts and Suggestions on supporting mode of power battery

In line with the requirements of the "double bonus point" policy, the proportion of new energy vehicles sold by auto enterprises will be 12% in 2020. Based on the average annual growth rate of 3-4% of traditional fuel vehicle sales, the sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles will reach nearly 3 million in 2020. The growth demand of new energy vehicle market will drive the incremental development of the power battery industry. In addition, the national action plan for promoting the development of automobile power battery industry also promotes the development of power battery enterprises, so power battery enterprises must consider joint venture and cooperation with complete vehicle enterprises.

Combined with China's national conditions, under the premise of meeting the conditions of national policies and regulations and the zero interest relationship, the following prediction can be made for the supporting mode scenario of the power battery industry:

1. Mode of joint venture and cooperation (including holding and shareholding)

At present, there are successful cases of this model in the global power battery industry. Joint venture and cooperation may be the inevitable result of the deep integration of new energy automobile enterprises and power batteries. From the perspective of research and development, it takes 2 years or more for the main engine plant to develop a complete set of vehicle models. Most of the main engine plants integrate and match the power system. Considering the cooperation with suppliers, joint ventures with battery plants are necessary to ensure the quality of battery products and the stability of supply. From the perspective of market, OEM's procurement volume is relatively stable, while the joint venture and cooperation model has a broad market base, which is beneficial to both OEM and power battery enterprises.

2. Global procurement mode

The purchase cost of power battery in oems can be reduced by globalization and large-scale purchase. In the world, LG and SAMSUNG are the typical power enterprises that are regarded as the global procurement objects of oems. However, such enterprises must be powerful enterprises with advanced technologies to be invincible. At present, the domestic power battery enterprises that take this road are not many.

3. Vertical integration supporting mode

Byd adopts the vertical integration supporting model for the production of cars, and the initial effect is quite obvious. The company has accumulated the original product technology and market, laying a foundation for the further development and growth of the company. At the same time, though, battery companies face the lure of a bigger market share. Do not exclude the emergence of domestic new enterprises under the model.

4. Industrial alliances with division of labor and coordination

Main engine manufacturers, power battery enterprises and other parts enterprises and operating enterprises should integrate complementary resources among suppliers of various links of the new energy automobile industry chain through the establishment of industry alliance for promotion, so as to realize the division and synergy effect of the whole industry chain, digest capacity and achieve coordinated development with the help of the alliance model. The enterprises of this mode are more dependent on the strength of the regional industrial chain to achieve supporting facilities, so there is a certain "suspicion" of local protectionism, but it is a better supporting mode at the current stage.

5, other

For the new construction of power battery in enterprises, it is expected that most of the domestic main engine manufacturers will not be willing to invest their main energy into the capital, manpower and technology-intensive battery industry. Therefore, it is not likely to invest in the new battery factory, but more of them will take the way of merger and reorganization to obtain the supporting supply of power battery.

Overall, both in terms of the hosts, or a power battery enterprise perspective, the need to adhere to the attitude of openness and cooperation, new energy vehicle and core components of the final way out lies in the international supply and form a complete set, the competition of power battery cells not only individual competition, competition in the new energy vehicles is not a single car companies competition, at least need to rise to the height of the industry chain competition. In addition, in 2020, China's new energy vehicle subsidy policy is likely to decline sharply or be cancelled. At that time, independent brands, joint venture brands and foreign brands will return to the same starting point of competition. Considering the competitiveness of vehicle enterprises, product iteration, restriction of core parts, cost control, profit acquisition and other factors, as well as supporting market and cycle of power battery enterprises, product supply and quality, scale and profit and other factors, the joint venture and cooperation between vehicle enterprises and power battery is not a bad choice.

Only with the overall prosperity of the new energy vehicle industry, the power battery industry can really give play to its value. Based on the development of complete vehicle enterprises and power batteries, intelligent electric vehicles have the following Suggestions:

1. Based on the high level of competition in the industrial chain of new energy vehicles, the industrial ecological subjects should jointly consolidate the industrial foundation and actively promote the joint venture and cooperation between the main engine plant of new energy vehicles and power battery enterprises. With the help of "One Belt And One Road", the main engine plant is ready to go from domestic competition to international competition, and the power battery is based on domestic supporting facilities and steps forward to international supporting facilities, gradually completing the layout of globalization.

2. Strengthen the in-depth cooperation of new energy vehicles and power batteries, and strengthen the specialization and cooperation. It is suggested to focus on the integration and matching of new energy vehicle power system. Power battery enterprises should focus on breaking down all aspects, such as technical routes, specialized supporting facilities for subdivided models, core parts, and key materials and processes, to form differentiated competition and occupy the technical commanding heights of corresponding subdivided fields.

3. Introduce auto insurance, auto finance and third-party certification institutions, and build and improve the battery recycling and reuse mechanism for the joint development of the whole vehicle and power battery enterprises.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.