2017 China's lithium battery industry prospects and industry profit analysis

China's energy storage network news: First, the lithium battery industry continues to prosper and forward to the upstream lithium battery supply terminal

Under the vigorous promotion of the national new energy policy, the new energy vehicle market has started to increase significantly since 2015, and the lithium battery-based power battery market has also shown an explosive trend. Conservative statistics 2016 power battery shipments totaled 28GWh, an increase of 78.06%. In the 15 years and 16 years, the CAGR of power battery shipments was as high as 202.22%, and the lithium battery industry was in a period of increasing volume.

Power battery shipments grow rapidly

Lithium battery industry prospects, lithium battery profit, power lithium battery capacity

1. The heat of new energy vehicles is not decreasing, and the demand for power lithium batteries is strong.

The purchase restriction policy has boosted the new energy passenger vehicle market. In order to alleviate traffic pressure, some cities have implemented automobile purchase restriction policies, but generally they have no restrictions on new energy vehicles or lowered the threshold for purchase restrictions, which has created conditions for the rapid release of new energy vehicles.

Taking Beijing as an example, from the perspective of the allocation of new energy vehicles in the demonstration of small passenger cars in Beijing, the average satisfaction rate (number of configurations/applications) of 6 batches of new energy vehicles in 2016 is only 62.49%. The average satisfaction rate of unit applications is only 23.16%, which is in short supply. In 2017, the total number of new energy indicators for the demonstration of Beijing minibuses was 60,000. The demand for new energy vehicles in cities affected by other restricted purchase policies is also strong, and the market boom is expected to continue.

Beijing new energy vehicle indicators in short supply

Lithium battery industry prospects, lithium battery profit, power lithium battery capacity

The sales of new energy passenger cars in January did not affect the subsequent heat. From the perspective of sales of new energy passenger vehicles, it has increased significantly since 2015. The annual sales volume was 176,814 units, a year-on-year increase of 2 times; in 2016, the annual sales volume was 327,864 units, an increase of 85% year-on-year. Although the sales volume in January 2017 was only 5,423 units, a significant drop of 60% year-on-year, it was mainly due to the early Spring Festival and the year-on-year shortening of the pre-holiday sales period, which had little impact on the market follow-up trend. According to the latest data, sales of new energy passenger vehicles in February have rebounded, with 16,521 units sold, a year-on-year increase of 64%. It is believed that the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to grow at a high rate in the next few years.

New energy passenger car sales have entered the fast-growing lane since 2015

Lithium battery industry prospects, lithium battery profit, power lithium battery capacity

2. The heat at the demand side is transmitted upstream, and the performance of lithium battery suppliers is high.

Lithium battery manufacturers have aggressively expanded their production capacity. The sales of new energy vehicles have brought power battery companies to actively expand production capacity and seize the market. According to statistics, in the first year of 2016, domestic lithium battery enterprises doubled their production capacity to 68.55GWh. Among them, Waterma, BYD, CATL, Guoxuan Gaoke Guoneng and other enterprises expanded their production capacity to the greatest extent. Doubled.

Lithium battery suppliers directly benefit from the capacity expansion of the lithium battery industry. According to statistics, China's demand for lithium battery production equipment in 2016 exceeded 14.5 billion yuan, and the output value of domestic production equipment accounted for more than 80%, and the output value increased by more than 20%. Lithium-electric equipment suppliers generally maintained high levels of operating income and generally improved their profitability.

Domestic lithium battery manufacturers expand production capacity

Lithium battery industry prospects, lithium battery profit, power lithium battery capacity

Lithium-electric equipment business revenue increased rapidly year-on-year

Lithium battery industry prospects, lithium battery profit, power lithium battery capacity

Lithium-electric equipment business maintained a high gross profit margin, steady and rising

Lithium battery industry prospects, lithium battery profit, power lithium battery capacity

Second, the industry will benefit from the expansion of lithium battery capacity in the short-term, and the high-quality customers will win the world in the long run.

1. The medium and long-term lithium battery industry is divided and developed, and the equipment suppliers have the best quality customers.

The medium and long-term development logic of the lithium battery industry remains unchanged, but the development of enterprises in the industry will face differentiation. The "13th Five-Year Plan for the Development of Strategic Emerging Industries" proposes that by 2020, the production and sales of the year will be more than 2 million vehicles, and the cumulative production and sales will exceed 5 million. The overall technical level will keep pace with the international level and form a group of internationally competitive new energy vehicle and key component companies. Based on the data of the 2016 new energy vehicle sales of 455,000 vehicles announced by the Association, it is conservatively estimated that the CAGR of new energy vehicles during the 13th Five-Year Plan period will be no less than 45%, and will continue to maintain relatively high growth.

In March 2017, the Action Plan for Promoting the Development of Automotive power battery Industry jointly issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology and the Ministry of Finance stated that by 2020, the total capacity of the power battery industry will exceed 100 billion watt-hours, resulting in a scale of production and sales a leading enterprise with international competitiveness above 40 billion watts. Compared with the shipment of 28.04GWh of the 2016 power battery mentioned in the previous article, it is known that the expansion of power battery companies during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period is still very large.

It is believed that during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, the rapid growth of new energy vehicle sales will not change the logic of the rapid growth of demand for lithium batteries. Therefore, the overall upward trend of the lithium battery industry will not change.

New energy vehicle sales forecast during the 13th Five-Year Plan period

Lithium battery industry prospects, lithium battery profit, power lithium battery capacity

The medium and long-term lithium battery industry will be divided, and the high-quality enterprises will be strong. It is noted that with the advancement of the development of the lithium battery industry, the mode of relying on financial subsidies and extensive mass production is changing. The subsidy policy for new energy vehicles has declined, and the more stringent conditions for the power battery industry have been introduced. The policy mechanism and market mechanism are adjusting the industry. Some of the backward production capacity will be phased out, the market share of high-quality enterprises will further increase, and the concentration of the industry will rise. The rapid development of the industry's dividends will gradually tilt to the strength of the industry's high-quality enterprises, the industry's overall quality and production efficiency will gradually increase.

Mid- and long-term lithium battery equipment suppliers have won the world with high quality customers. Based on the development trend of the downstream lithium battery industry, it is believed that with the increase of the concentration of lithium battery industry, lithium battery enterprises will put forward higher automation, intelligence and high precision requirements for equipment in pursuit of higher production efficiency and economic benefits. . At the same time, with the improvement of the technical level and service capacity of domestic lithium battery equipment manufacturers, the localization rate of lithium battery equipment will be further improved. Lithium-electric equipment enterprises with rich technical reserves and business strength and close cooperation with high-quality customers in the downstream lithium battery industry will share the high-growth feast of the lithium battery industry for a long time. In the medium and long term, lithium battery equipment companies have the best quality customers.

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