What are the factors that restrict the production of metal silicon in China? Analysis of influencing factors

First, the downstream application of the silicon industry has grown substantially

In 2017, China's polysilicon production was 242,000 tons, up 24.7% year-on-year; wafer production was 87GW, up 34.3% year-on-year; cell sheet production was 68GW, up 33.3% year-on-year; module output was 76GW, up 31.7% year-on-year. The production scale of all links in the industrial chain accounts for more than 50% of the global total and continues to be the world's first. In 2017, PV installed capacity exceeded 53GW, a year-on-year increase of 53%, and the cumulative installed capacity exceeded 130GW. China's new PV installation and cumulative installed capacity once again ranked first in the world.

Second, the metal silicon is greatly affected by environmental protection, and the supply continues to be under pressure.

Metal silicon is obtained by smelting and purifying a reducing agent such as quartz and coke in an electric arc furnace. The production process is high in power consumption and high in pollution, and the cost of electricity is as high as 41%. Therefore, metal silicon enterprises are mostly concentrated in Xinjiang with low power cost or hydropower resources. Rich in Yunnan and Sichuan.

In August 2017, the Central Environmental Protection Inspector Group stationed in Xinjiang, Sichuan and other places, which greatly restricted the local operating rate and caused the price of metal silicon to skyrocket. In August 2017, the price of metal silicon 553# increased from 11,000 yuan/ton to 14300 yuan/ton at the beginning of September, a substantial increase of 3300 yuan/ton. After entering September, the price of silicon fell slightly to the end of 2017, and the southern dry season stopped production. The furnace supply weakened and the price rebounded.

Third, the situation of metal silicon exports is not optimistic

In 2016, China's total export volume of metal silicon was about 714,700 tons, a decrease of 60,800 tons compared with 775,500 tons in 2015, a year-on-year decrease of 7.84%. In 2016, the total volume of metal silicon exports in the fourth quarter was lower than that in 2015. The specific situation was: 2948 tons in the first quarter, down 1.62% year-on-year; 13845 tons in the second quarter, down 7.28% year-on-year; 40778 tons in the third quarter, It fell by 18.6%; it fell by 3,260 tons in the fourth quarter, down 1.77% year-on-year.

China's exports of metal silicon are mainly in Japan, South Korea, Thailand, India, Mexico, and other countries, and the total export volume has been decreasing, and the situation has gone from bad to worse. However, China's metal silicon production has always accounted for 70%-80% of the global total output, and it's market share is heavy. The demand for metal silicon in China has decreased in the international market, and it is difficult to support China's metal silicon with an annual output of 2.3 million tons. Consumption, the domestic metal silicon production pattern is also likely to adjust, the international market development situation is not optimistic.

Metal silicon production forecast

From January to December 2016, the cumulative production of metal silicon in China was about 2.366 million tons, which was 206,000 tons less than the 2.572 million tons in 2015. We expect China's metal silicon production to reach 2.35 million tons in 2018, and the compound annual growth rate in the next five years (2018-2022) is about -3.36%, and will reach 2.05 million tons in 2022.

The page contains the contents of the machine translation.