What are China's new energy automobile industry development obstacles?

The industry's most lack is not money, but the mature technology and can be commercialized operations team.

At present, the industry's concerns about the development of the new energy vehicle industry, in addition to the fuel vehicle's own technology promotion and application, the initial cost of huge investment led to the market-oriented mass production contradictions, mainly concentrated in the relatively mature and commercial mass production of lithium battery for the kinetic energy of electric vehicles sector. What is restricting the development of new energy automobile industry? The author thinks that, the answer can be classified into three aspects: technology, resources, policy.

The key of technical bottlenecks in the battery

Both in China and the world, the shell making and vehicle assembly have been very mature technology support and manufacturing system, and do not need to worry too much about. For new energy vehicles, although consumption habits is relatively easy, but if can't solve the charging time is too long, short in the practical life of the problem, then compared with traditional fuel cars go fast, site, new energy vehicles or will lose the market to be bestowed favor on newly.

From the marketing point of view, "stand" battery changes can remove battery charging and long, and can carry on the professional maintenance to the battery. But there are three big problems spans in front:

One is the cost of construction of the site itself is very big, need professional maintenance batteries, battery manufacturers and cooperate what kind of capital in order to do this?

Second, when consumer purchases for the vehicle battery module is equivalent to a deposit in the loan, this part of the investment or need 3 to 10 years to pull back, what kind of companies to take such a risk?

Three is the battery standard has not been unified, like the first mobile phone, can't do standard module, unified interface, what kind of business can have such a forward-looking and r&d capability for standards and lead?

Therefore, at present the most realistic solution mainly is the quick charge, increase the range.

On the electric car manufacturing chain, "SanDian system" (battery, motor and electric control) is very important, and battery is the foundation and decision factors. For current commercial production of the largest Lithium ion batteries, if you want to achieve quick charge, need to the original material, especially the anode materials for higher technical improvement, such as high nickel; To realize the large increase in battery life need the energy density of ascension. It is worth noting that the nickel cobalt manganese acid lithium in the past two years has gradually become the mainstream, at the same time, in the past two years to break through the energy density of the lithium iron phosphate, these are for large capacity, long life battery technology development lay the foundation.

At the same time, the negative impact of safety performance to be reckoned with. Such as samsung mobile phone after the explosion, the airports for carrying and using of lithium ion battery adopt more stringent rules. Core problem lies in the capacity of the battery itself density and safety performance is difficult to achieve the most effective combination, now there is no essential breakthrough. Even once fired by jowl graphene, also difficult to realize large-scale commercial production in three to five years.

The core of the resource problem in lithium cobalt

Nearly three years, basic lithium salt price rise. From the end of 2014 to 2014, never to 2014 yuan/ton rose to 180000 yuan/ton, the end of the year fell to 150000 yuan/tons, battery grade lithium carbonate is about 4 to 5 times higher prices.

Meanwhile, cobalt situation seemed a little crazy. Data show that nearly a decade of cobalt has experienced a gain of 400% between 2006 and 2008, has experienced from 2009 to 2010 in the first half of the year between quantitative easing down nearly 50%. Based on the demand of new energy vehicles ternary material, at the end of August 2017, the British "metal" (English abbreviation for MB) released by the cobalt price $29 / pounds, but there are still more than 65% of the space from record highs. Based on cobalt generally associated exists in the form of copper and cobalt or nickel and cobalt, therefore, it can’t be ignored cobalt and nickel copper price.

Is Prices the result of resource scarcity? The answer is no.

From the point of lithium resources analysis, the world is proven reserves of lithium for 14 mt, current annual demand is 32.5 kt. Lithium resources in the world are mainly distributed in 30 to 40 degrees north latitude, 20-30 degrees south latitude range, such as the andes plateau and the western United States and China on the Tibetan plateau, etc. Australia and Chile bilateral total control over 75% of lithium resources around the world.

In our country, 90% of lithium resources distribution in the west, the current mining mainly for lithium ore (spodumene and lithium mica) and the average grade is low (0.8% - 1.1 4%, lower than abroad.465% - 3.55%), magnesium in brine is higher (more than 40 Mg/Li, Chile's atacama salt lake only six.47) so the industrial scale use.

Cobalt from cobalt resources analysis, the resources are rich, the concentration distribution. According to the U.S. geological survey (USGS) minerals yearbook 2016 (MineralCommoditySummaries) statistics, in 2015 the world cobalt has proven reserves of 7.1 million tons, mainly concentrated in Congo (gold), Australia and Russia, Cuba, new caledonia, Zambia, about 80% of total reserves of cobalt in the world.

Capacity, Congo's cobalt (gold) resources in 10 in mines, but five holding company for the Swiss company glencore, accounts for about Congo (gold) in 67% of the cobalt mine resource. Freeport, kazakhstan Eurasian natural resources companies in the United States, the united Arab emirates ShalinaResources company, China minmetals group and jinchuan, each holding one. Anywhere else in the world of cobalt production capacity is not enough to shake the Congo (gold) dominance.

As industrial scale level, improve the extraction technology of breakthrough, on the basis of the principle of lithium, cobalt and other metallic elements don't disappear, lithium battery recycling industry has sadly arisen, recycled to become a reality, demand for natural resources will be reduced, the rise in the short term the situation like the process of the iron ore, more is the result of the international capital control speculation, can’t fully reflect the real situation of industrial development.

Key in subsidies policy concerns

It is necessary to clarify a basic understanding: the essence of state subsidies for new energy vehicles is to support an industry, create first-mover advantage and rapidly expand the market, rather than subsidies similar to the traditional agricultural sector, whose purpose is to maintain the basic plate stability. So subsidies are bound to disappear in the near future.

The current subsidy policy guidance generally focus on two aspects: one is the technical level, to encourage technological innovation, aligning with the international top, amply rewarded industry leading; Second is on the market level, the breakthrough bottleneck of environmental protection, advocate green travel, move large and medium-sized cities, highlight the big bear and relying on the "area" all the way, grab the overseas market.

Specific to the production and operation of enterprises and product sales links, the current pure electric vehicle sales seem to grow slowly or even decline, and its delivery period stretched to more than 6 months has a great relationship. It reflects the problem is, the current actual power battery capacity is very limited, on the existing technical route, despite relevant enterprises on the basis of the battery and lithium, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide) invested on the project, but based on the industrial projects, especially lithium salts in the chemical industry of demonstration, design, planning, examination and approval, construction, reaches producing cycle time is usually 1-2 years, large-scale release of production capacity should be around 2020 years ago.

Related to this terminal car market demand is not a moment to relieve, north connect cities such as new energy vehicles numeral situation (such as Beijing's appointment as far away as 2021).The foreign media thinks, if there is no battery capacity constraints, pure electric car sales can easily exceed the plug-in hybrid. In recent years, the Chinese government strongly support the development of new energy vehicles purpose has been achieved. The key to restricting the development of new energy vehicles is not a government subsidy, nor the market demand, but the capacity to form under the technological breakthroughs. Public data show that in November 2017, Volkswagen announced that it would invest more than 10 billion euros ($11.8 billion) with local Chinese partners to build 40 new energy vehicles, the company hopes to before 2025 can produce 1.5 million new cars in China, most of which are electric cars. Toyota also said, to the production of electric cars in China in 2020. Drive from Munich BMW battery research and development and production center in shenyang, BMW also chose the ningde era of new energy technology co., LTD. (CATL) as a partner.

We can say, for new energy vehicles, this is one of the best times. New forces became strong enough, a lot of capital has been through a variety of ways in mines, basis of lithium, electrode materials, battery production and the manufacture each link, is committed to a head. Traditional bosses have suddenly wake up, being tried to solid base, expand new areas. In short, the industry's most lack is not money, but the application of marketable mature technology, can be commercialized operations team.

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